This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

       In recent years, the attention of researchers has increased of semi-parametric regression models, because it is possible to integrate the parametric and non-parametric regression models in one and then form a regression model has the potential to deal with the cruse of dimensionality in non-parametric models that occurs through the increasing of explanatory variables. Involved in the analysis and then decreasing the accuracy of the estimation. As well as the privilege of this type of model with flexibility in the application field compared to the parametric models which comply with certain conditions such as knowledge of the distribution of errors or the parametric models may

Abstract

This study investigates the mechanical compression properties of tin-lead and lead-free alloy spherical balls, using more than 500 samples to identify statistical variability in the properties in each alloy. Isothermal aging was done to study and compare the aging effect on the microstructure and properties.

The results showed significant elastic and plastic anisotropy of tin phase in lead-free tin based solder and that was compared with simulation using a Crystal Plasticity Finite Element (CPEF) method that has the anisotropy of Sn installed. The results and experiments were in good agreement, indicating the range of values expected with anisotropic properties.

Keywords<

 The transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method  local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m

This research aims to study the methods of reduction of dimensions that overcome the problem curse of dimensionality when traditional methods fail to provide a good estimation of the parameters So this problem must be dealt with directly . Two methods were used to solve the problem of high dimensional data, The first method is the non-classical method Slice inverse regression ( SIR ) method and the proposed weight standard Sir (WSIR) method and principal components (PCA) which is the general method used in reducing dimensions,    (SIR ) and (PCA) is based on the work of linear combinations of a subset of the original explanatory variables, which may suffer from the problem of heterogeneity and the problem of linear

In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company.  The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system.  This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system.  We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator.  We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after  it checked by the

Lying is considered a dangerous tendency among children if it has become a habit. It results in many social problems, such as child’s loss of confidence, lack of others’ respect to him, and his lack of respect to the desired values ​​of the society, such as honesty and trust. Consequently, he will be led to a deviation when he becomes old; especially if the child’s socially unaccepted behavior has not been directed. The research, thus, aims to examine the causes of lying in the most important stage of children’s life; that is, between (4-6) years. Such an aim helps to know about the individual reasons of lying among males and females from teachers’ perspectives. To meet the objective of the study, a number of (128) children

This study is pointed out to estimate the effectiveness of two solvents in the extraction and evaluating the active ingredients and their antioxidant activity as well as anti-cancer efficiency. Therefore, residues from four different Brassica vegetables viz. broccoli, Brussels sprout, cauliflower, and red cherry radish were extracted using two procedures methods: methanolic and water crude extracts. Methanol extracts showed the highest content of total phenolic (TP), total flavonoids (TF), and total tannins (TT) for broccoli and Brussels sprouts residues. Methanolic extract of broccoli and Brussels sprouts residues showed the highest DPPH· scavenging activity (IC₅₀ = 15.39 and 18.64 µg/ml). The methanol and water ex

A field study aimed at identifying the sources of mutual complaints among the Directorates of Education staff of their departments and management and run it in their daily dealings with principals in the province of Baghdad, and adopt approach. It was determined the research consists of (2357) male and female employees and 305 randomly stratified simple by the rate of (7%) from the research community as the number of sample reached (167) male and female employees, and selected sample was randomly stratified simple by the rate of (39.67%) of the research community, as the number of sample was (121) principals. It was constructed two questionnaires, the first included (28) items and the second contained (28) items. And the two researchers

In this paper, we used maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian method to estimate the shape parameter (θ), and reliability function (R(t)) of the Kumaraswamy distribution with two parameters l , θ (under assuming the exponential distribution, Chi-squared distribution and Erlang-2 type distribution as prior distributions), in addition to that we used method of moments for estimating the parameters of the prior distributions. Bayes