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تحليل العوامل المؤثرة في اداء سوق الاوراق المالية(مصر حالة دراسية)
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تشكل سوق الاوراق المالية ركناً اساسياً من اركان هيكل النظام التمويلي في النظم الاقتصادية المعاصرة، لما تقوم به هذه الاسواق من دور مهم في حشد المدخرات المحلية وتوجيهها في قنوات استثمارية تعمل على دعم الاقتصاد القومي وتزيد من معدلات الرفاهية الاقتصادية لافراده، فضلاً عن كونها مرأة للوضع الاقتصادي العام في البلاد.

ونتيجة للروابط القوية بين سوق الاوراق المالية والاقتصاد، عُدّ استقرار ونمو هذه الاسواق مقياساً لمدى نجاح السياسات الاقتصادية العامة للدولة، وعدت مؤشرات اداء سوق الاوراق المالية من مؤشرات الاقتصادية الفعالة في تحديد اتجاهات النشاط الاقتصادي.

تناولت هذه الدراسة العوامل الخارجية (الاقتصادية والسياسية) والعوامل الداخلية المؤثرة في سلوك الاسواق المالية، إذ تم تحليل ومناقشة ابرز المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية(كعرض النقد، مستوى النشاط الاقتصادي، سعر الفائدة، سعر الصرف، التضخم) وعلاقتها بالاسهم والسندات، فضلاً عن تحديد القنوات التي من خلالها يتسرب اثر هذه المتغيرات الى سوق الاوراق المالية.

كما تم بحث وتحليل اهم العوامل الداخلية(العوامل الفنية) التي تنشأ داخل بورصة الاوراق المالية، والتي تتعلق بممارسة انشطتها وطبيعة معاملاتها وسلوكيات المتعاملين فيها ووسائلهم، فسوق الاوراق المالية لا تخلو من محاولات بعض المتعاملين والسماسرة القيام ببعض التصرفات التي من شأنها خلق ظروف مصطنعة تعمل على ايهام الافراد بحقائق ليست صحيحة. ثم عرجت الدراسة على عدد من القوانين والتشريعات التي من شانها الحد من الممارسات غير القانونية وخلق بيئة استثمارية مستقرة.

ومن خلال سوق مصر للاوراق المالية تم اختبار العلاقة الكمية بين العوامل الاقتصادية المذكورة من جهة، وموشرات اداء سوق مصر للاوراق المالية (المؤشر العام لاسعار الاسهم، القيمة السوقية، حجم التداول) من جهة اخرى.

وخلصت الدراسة الى مجموعة من الاستنتاجات والتوصيات كان اهمها وجود علاقة طردية بين التغيرات الحاصلة في (عرض النقد، مستوى النشاط الاقتصادي، معدل التضخم) ومؤشرات اداء سوق مصر للاوراق المالية، فيما وجد ان سعري الفائدة والصرف يرتبطان بعلاقة عكسية مع المؤشرات اداء السوق المذكور.

واخيراً اوصت الدراسة الى ضرورة انشاء مراكز نشطة وفعالة داخل اسواق الاوراق المالية تتيح للمستمرين الاطلاع على المعلومات المتعلقة بالاجراءات التي يتخذها البنك المركزي بشان السياسة النقدية، حتى يتمكنوا من عكسها في اتخاذ قرارات البيع والشراء الخاصة بالاوراق المالية هذا من جانب، من جانب اخر لا بد من قيام السلطات النقدية بالموازنة بين المنافع والتاثيرات السلبية لتلك القارات في اداء سوق الاواق المالية.

وللحد من الممارسات غير القانونية تم التاكيد على اهمية اصدار القوانين والقواعد اللازمة لتنظيم ورقابة سوق الاوراق المالية من مخاطر الغش والتلاعب التي يمارسها عدد من السماسرة والمستثمرين الكبار، على حساب بعض المتعاملين في سوق الاوراق المالية.

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