The theory of probabilistic programming may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, production and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable with given Laplace distribution.
n this paper, we formulate three mathematical models using spline functions, such as linear, quadratic and cubic functions to approximate the mathematical model for incoming water to some dams. We will implement this model on dams of both rivers; dams on the Tigris are Mosul and Amara while dams on the Euphrates are Hadetha and Al-Hindya.
The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rate somewhat high in starting operation and these rates will be decreased with increasing time .
In practical side a comparison was made between (Shrinkage and Maximum likelihood) Estimators for parameter and reliability function using simulation , we conclude that the Shrinkage estimators for parameters are better than maximum likelihood estimators but the maximum likelihood estimator for reliability function is the better using statistical measures (MAPE)and (MSE) and for different sample sizes.
Note:- ns : small sample ; nm=median sample
... Show MoreA genetic algorithm model coupled with artificial neural network model was developed to find the optimal values of upstream, downstream cutoff lengths, length of floor and length of downstream protection required for a hydraulic structure. These were obtained for a given maximum difference head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy. The objective function to be minimized was the cost function with relative cost coefficients for the different dimensions obtained. Constraints used were those that satisfy a factor of safety of 2 against uplift pressure failure and 3 against piping failure.
Different cases reaching 1200 were modeled and analyzed using geo-studio modeling, with different values of input variables. The soil wa
In this paper, a harvested prey-predator model involving infectious disease in prey is considered. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points are carried out. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that the existence of disease and harvesting can give rise to multiple attractors, including chaos, with variations in critical parameters.
Abstract
The vegetative filter strips (VFS) are a useful tool used for reducing the movement of sediment and pesticide in therivers. The filter strip’s soil can help in reducing the runoff volume by infiltration. However, the characteristics of VFS (i.e., length) are not recently identified depending on the estimation of VFS modeling performance. The aim of this research is to study these characteristics and determine acorrelation between filter strip length and percent reduction (trapping efficiency) for sediment, water, and pesticide. Two proposed pesticides(one has organic carbon sorption coefficient, Koc, of 147 L/kg which is more moveable than XXXX, and another one
... Show MoreAbstract The study aimed at demonstrating the reality of sectarian coexistence in Iraq, which was characterized by the tolerance and coercion caused by the successive government policies to govern Iraq and to this day. The study was based on the hypothesis that coexistence between Islamic sects in Iraq can be achieved as long as there are strong bonds linking its components, and these bonds can produce coexistence between the sects based on peace. The study concluded that the hypothesis is correct, in addition to drawing a set of observations aimed at identifying weaknesses for advancing them through the adoption of mechanisms that address these weaknesses to yield towards a genuine peaceful coexistence among Islamic sects in Iraq.
This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
... Show MoreFrictional heat is generated when the clutch starts to engag. As a result of this operation the surface temperature is increased rapidly due to the difference in speed between the driving and driven parts. The influence of the thickness of frictional facing on the distribution of the contact pressure of the multi-disc clutches has been investigated using a numerical approach (the finite element method). The analysis of contact problem has been carried out for a multiple disc dry clutch (piston, clutch discs, separators and pressure plate). The results present the distribution of the contact pressure on all tShe surfaces of friction discs that existed in the friction clutch system. Axisymmetric finite element models have been developed to ac
... Show MoreSuperconducting compound Bi2Sr2-xYxCa2Cu3O10+δ were Synthesized by method of solid state reaction, at 1033 K for 160 hours temperature of the sintering at normal atmospheric pressure where substitutions Yttrium oxide with Strontium. When Y2O3 concentration (0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5). All specimens of Bi2Sr2Ca2Cu3O10+δ superconducting compounds were examined. The resistivity of electrical was checked by the four point probe technique, It was found th