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jeasiq-1080
The Effect of the Stability of Some Commodity Activities in Iraq on the Estimation of the Statistical Data Models for the Period (1988-2000)
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There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theory of statistical inference on these capabilities.
But the scientists Swedes Granger and Newbold 1974 blew up real surprise when, where researchers generate the time series random static Stationary Non (specifically chains conduct random) using the method of simulation of this series does not reflect any variable is known and then considered these chains separately. And then they make a large number of estimates of the regression using these strings on each other.

After the estimate was calculated values ​​of statistic t and under the assumption that the parameter real equal to zero (ie, the parameter estimates from the regression likes to be insignificant to the independence and random variables used in the estimate), but in spite of the fact that the time series was random and independent, the researchers found that zero hypothesis that the true parameter equal to zero was rejected or the possibility of greater frequency than expected by the theory were accepted moral relationship statistically, the researchers also noted that the residue resulting from the regression estimates by a large positive self-link. The researchers reached this conclusion important and serious that the capacity and statistical tests that result from the regressions used the time series is still considered the results of improper or false decline spurious regressions can not be reassuring to the results of statistical inference on its resources. The form of this research the starting point for new research in the field of sleep testing strings, cast doubt on the results of all previous standard tests used did not take the time series properties of time series into account by the estimate.

As for the current study, the test was intended to stabilize some of the activities in Iraq and the commodity involved (agriculture, manufacturing, construction, electricity and water) to estimate the models of integration between the cross-sectional data and time series.


 

 

 

On this basis, the research contained in the theoretical side Mbgesan, in the first part, the research methodology was presented by showing the importance of research which confirmed the account on the new addition to the specialists and researchers in this field. The research problem can be summarized in a statement after stabilizing the merged data on the results of the assessment method of least squares using the two-stage compact. While the aim of the research included the assessment of model integration between the data cross-sectional and time series using the GDP variable is supported and all of (the number of workers, investment) independent variables indicate the extent to stabilize the time series on the results of the assessment in order to reach more accurate results from a statistical standpoint . In addition, ensure the topic on the assumptions and the nature of the variables used in it. In the second part, the researchers introduced the concept of testing Dickey Fuller used in detecting the presence of the root of the unit (Unit root) and applied to the data used in the research, based on a program of economic measurement (Eviews 5.1) and present the results of different cases for each test and the presence or absence (Cutter, the general trend) to the data of some commodity activities in Iraq.
The practical side has included a summary of the results of the assessment using the least squares method combined with a comparison between the two cases (non-stability,, stability,) in the presence and the absence of fixed effects of periods and groups.

Finally, the researchers offer conclusions and recommendations reached by the research.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Comparison between the BEKK and DVECH Models of Multivariate GARCH Models with Practical Application
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The Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and for

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Measuring and analyzing the impact of financial crises on the main source for financing the public budget in Iraq) *
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    Form recurrence of financial crises phenomenon disturbing and attention , and returns the reasons so that its negative effects were sharp and dangerous , because of the nature and cause of Ncaha , threatened political and economic stability of the countries in which they occur these crises , in addition to Machmlh these crises spread of contagion across multiple channels to include other countries many developed and developing , and the reason for this to the openness of the economic and financial witnessed by the countries affected by crises and other countries concerned, the financial crisis is a case of financial turmoil appears in one of the sections of the financial system one and extends to

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON THE PUBLIC BUDGET AND TRADE BALANCE IN IRAQ FOR THE DURATION (2004-2017)
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The fluctuations in oil prices in world markets affect the general budget and the trade balance of the rent countries, because oil is a strategic commodity affected by economic and political factors. The fluctuations in oil prices affect the public budgets of the rent countries through the public revenue side of oil revenues. On the other hand, these fluctuations affect the balance of trade through the volume of oil exports, which lead to imbalance of trade surplus or deficit .                                           &nbs

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use some probability amputated models to study the characteristics of health payments in the Iraqi Insurance Company
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Abstract

Due to the lack of previous statistical study of the behavior of payments, specifically health insurance, which represents the largest proportion of payments in the general insurance companies in Iraq, this study was selected and applied in the Iraqi insurance company.

In order to find the convenient model representing the health insurance payments, we initially detected two probability models by using (Easy Fit) software:

First, a single Lognormal for the whole sample and the other is a Compound Weibull  for the two Sub samples (small payments and large payments), and we focused on the compoun

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of local tax revenues in financing local development: Case Study of Tebessa State for the Period[2010-2014[
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Local communities are in need of self-resources so that they can perform their multiple functions which serve the objectives of the local development, and tax revenues are considered as important sources of their funding. However, despite the efforts of the state to reform the fiscal system and to improve the management in the local administration, tax collection can increase when the state adopts a more effective policy to combat tax evasion and tax fraud. Accordingly, this research aims to shed light on the role of local tax revenues in the local development. A set of conclusions are drawn; the most important one is that Algeria, in order to achieve local development, has taken a set of reforms, which are still valid until now. The mos

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled in Iraqi ports An applied study in the general company of Iraqi ports
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Time series is an important statistical method adopted in the analysis of phenomena, practices, and events in all areas during specific time periods and predict future values ​​contribute to give a rough estimate of the status of the study, so the study aimed to adopt the ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled and achieved in four ports (Umm Qasr Port, Khor Al Zubair Port, Abu Flus Port, and Maqal Port(, Monthly data on the volume of cargo handled for the years (2006-2018) were collected (156) observations. The study found that the most efficient model is ARIMA (1,1,1).

The volume of go

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of banking performance according to the CAMELS model An applied study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank for the period 2014-2018.
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The banking sector has a significant impact on the economic growth of the country, and the importance of this sector must assess its financial performance from time to time, to measure the situation related to money for each bank and how to put the supervision of the efficiency of the full. The research aims at evaluating the financial performance according to the elements of the CAMELS model, which including capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, liquidity, and market risk sensitivity. The research included the study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank during the period from 2014 to 2018. The base capital ratio was used to total assets to measure capital adequacy The proportion of investments to total a

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.
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The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.

Because the studying of time series can get by building, analysis the models and then forecasting gives the priority for the practicing in different fields, therefore the identification and selection of the model is of great importance in spite of its difficulties.

The selection of a standard methods has the ability for estimation the errors in the estimated the parameters for the model, and there will be a balance between the suitability and the simplicity of the model.

In the analysis of d

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the effect of foreign debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco for the period 1990-2017 using the ARDL Test
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The research aims to identify the magnitude of the impact of external debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco, and the importance of research lies in the role that external debt plays in addressing structural imbalances, if it is best disposed of according to well-studied economic plans by specialists in this regard, especially if these debts are directed with Other resources, as it helps pay the costs of these debts (debt servicing) that the external debt also raises the level of gross domestic product, and the research starts from the hypothesis that: There is an effect of foreign debt on the GDP in Morocco, has contributed in one way or another to The exacerbation of the external debt, which affected the m

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of government investment spending on tax revenue in Iraq from( 2008 – 2020) : Applied research in The General Authority for Taxes.
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The expenditures of the general budget, in its operational and investment divisions, are a basic factor in the economic and social growth of any country, and its impact on various economic activities such as income, employees , and the standard of living of members of society. This was based on a basic premise: Does increasing or decreasing investment expenditures have an effect on increasing or decreasing the tax proceeds, What is the level of relationship between them? and to achieve the goal of the research, an inductive and analytical method was chosen to measure the impact of the investment budget expenditures on the tax outcome quantitatively using the financial data obtained from The General Authority for Taxes, Ministry of Financ

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