Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

When a vehicle is left parked in the sun for an extended period, the gathered heat causes damage to several interiors within the cabin and causes discomfort for people and animals left inside the car. In the present work, the effect of the orientation of a parked white minibus on temperature distribution and cooling load calculation is studied experimentally in an open environment. Two different cases were studied facing south and facing east. For several hours, the temperature inside the car cabin had been monitored and measured at five separate locations. The cooling load calculations are carried out based on the experimental measurements. The results show that the overheating of parked cars always happens as a result

Despite scholars’ attention on the typology of modality as a linguistic phenomenon, yet the use of modality across varieties of English is not well visible in communication-based researches that take semantics, pragmatics and discourse issues as the objects for their investigation. The paper generates its data from six M. A. dissertations from Nigerian University and equal number of the M. A. dissertations from Iraqi University to qualitatively and quantitatively investigate the contextual use of modality within the pragmatic perspective. The data analysis reveals that modality such as usuality, potentiality, necessity, probability and obligation in the dissertations encapsulates interpersonal and authorial voice in which the mean

The study's primary purpose is to explore an appropriate way of monitoring and assessing water depths using the satellite remote sensing technique of the Al Habbaniyah Lake in Iraq. This research studied the experience-conditions (thresholds) of different bands for multi-temporal satellite image data with different satellite image sensors (Landsat 5-TM, and EO1-ALI) for the same region, to recognize regions of water depths. The threshold values are taken that to separate the Al Habbaniyah Lake to the required depths (shallow, deep, and very deep), as a supervised method. A three-dimension feature space plot had used to represent these regions. The relationship of the mean values of the three separated water regions with all TM and A

Primary and secondary response loss , often mediated by the development of anti-drug antibodies (ADAs), limit treatment efficacy. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is important in optimizing infliximab therapy by correlating drug level with clinical outcomes. This study aimed to find the relationship between infliximab level, ADA presence, and clinical activity in Iraqi Crohn's disease (CD) patients. This cross-sectional study included adult Crohn's disease patients receiving maintenance infliximab (IFX) treatment. Data on demographics and clinical characteristics were collected. Infliximab level and ADA were measured using ELISA. Forty-three patients were included. Patients in remission had significantly higher infliximab levels and lower

The latest events in Iraq and notably the fall of Mosul in the summer of 2014 have marked a turning point in The modern history of Iraq. Violent terrorist groups have overrun a vast area comprising of many towns in mid and northern Iraq causing many casualties and mass migration. Despite Iraq’s long history of pain and suffering the events of the second half of the year 2014 have been the most violent ever witnessed. From this point of view the researcher has tried to identify specifically in this time and place the effect these events have had on the Iraqi artist and to understand how the Iraqi artists depicted this violence in their works of art. The research comprises four parts; the first looked at the language used and the and pro

     The importance of this research is due to its importance goals, Which are about the attempt of researchers to investigate the probability of depending on businesses^, environments to transform organizations^, performance in away that enhance the leading  role of organizations  in their environments , and through views of a number of the staff working in the foundation of technical institutes in Mosul.  .

     After deciding the methodology of the study that ,in one hand ,performs the goals of the study , and achieving a suitable theoretical framework to present the concepts of businesses^, environments and the leadin

Objective: To identify causes of maternal death in Mizan Aman and Gebretsadik shawo general hospitals
Methodology: A case control study on 595 charts, 119 cases and 476 controls was conducted in Mizan
Aman & Gebretsadik shawo general hospitals. Data was analyzed by STATA 13.1. Propensity score
matching analysis was used to see causes of maternal death.
Results: Hemorrhage were the main direct causes of maternal death which accounts 47.9% (β =0.58
(95% CI (0.28,0.87)) in hospital but when projected to population based the sample (β =0.26 (95% CI
(0.22,0.31)). Followed by infection 36 (25.21%) (β = 0.50 (95% CI (0.08, 0.92)). when projected to
population based the sample PIH 7.6%) is significant cause (β = 0.16

Assessing performance efficiency is critical to the management need for oversight, planning, and continuous periodic evaluation of the multiple activities of Northern Cement State Company in order to determine the level of achievement of the objectives set, and to correct the deviations and delays that the evaluation shows and limitation of liability. What cannot be measured cannot be managed. The aim of this research is to highlight the impact of using BSC, financial and non-financial, to give comprehensive and clear picture of the company's performance and to measure the quality of its performance by using six-sigma and the level of deviations in achieving the planned goals. Therefore, four-key hypotheses were formulated for th