Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

In this research the Empirical Bayes method is used to Estimate the affiliation parameter in the clinical trials and then we compare this with the Moment Estimates for this parameter using Monte Carlo stimulation , we assumed that the distribution of the observation is binomial distribution while the distribution with the unknown random parameters is beta distribution ,finally we conclude that the Empirical bayes method for the random affiliation parameter is efficient using Mean Squares Error (MSE) and for different Sample size .

Worshipersrighteousness in declaration of purposes of belief

Laith Salman Dawood

Iraqi Sunni Affairs/Department of Religious and Charity Institutions

Abstract

Praise is to God and Prayers and peace is upon the Messenger of Allah and his family and companions and then:

The research here presents to the question of standing on the purpose of belief and its importance, which corresponds to going into the purposes of the Sharia acts and Worship, which are no less important and perhaps the most important. The health of belief is the only way to correct work and worship. The research first dealt with the definition of the doctrine and its pil

It was Aristotle who first drew attention to the superior quality of literature to the other factual fields of knowledge. Contradicting his predecessor Plato on the issue of „truth,‟ Aristotle believed that „poetry is more philosophical and deserves more serious attention than history: for while poetry concerns itself with universal truths, history considers only particular facts.‟ (1) The critical attention to the disparity between the literary truth and the historical truth grew up throughout ages to flourish in the Renaissance and after with a bunch of distinctive views on this subject. Sir Philip Sidney (1554-1586), for example, found that literature does not offer a literal description of reality but rather a heightened vers

Words worth and the Intention of AL. Sayyab Discourse

Abstract

       The main goal of this study is to showcase the aesthetic values contained in Nahj Al-Balagha by exploring its wide horizons and enriching the subject of rhetoric with new forms and images that did not exist in other books, as they characterized no other book but Nahj Al-Balagha. Imam Ali mastered the use of rhetorical forms in his speech to the fullest extent that such forms raced to his thought one after the other to book their place amongst the topics of religious and earthly life. One of those rhetoric forms is synecdoche, in its various parts. Due to this form great importance and high status, it was used by the Imam at many

The water scarcity that Iraq suffers from and the low irrigation efficiency in irrigation projects, therefore, it was necessary to evaluate the performance of the irrigation system of the western canal for the Ishaqi irrigation project in Salah al-Din Governorate to determine the water management strategies that can be used to improve the irrigation efficiency in the project. The performance of the field irrigation system was evaluated on two fields of different crops and irrigation methods according to the agricultural reality of the study area in the Western canal for the Al-Ishaqi Irrigation Project in Salah Al-Din Governorate. The fieldwork included measurements of the moisture content before and after irrigation, fi

Al-Yaqubi was biased in favor of Shia. May be du to his choice of source, materials. All historians as with other human beings are biased in their attitudes and preconceptions in one degree or another as well as in one direction or another.
The choice of source materials, their nature and the use made of them is an important index for measuring the achievement of ang historian.
Several specific questions arise. What sources did author use that were either unknown to or were not employed by his predecessors and contemporaries for whatever reason?
What sources are common to al- Yaqubi and his colleagues among the early Arab historians and what evidence of tendentiousness can be ascert- ained in these? To what extent can the author

The aim of this research is to develop mechanical properties of a new aluminium-lithium-copper alloy. This alloy prepared under control atmosphere by casting in a permanent metal mould. The microstructure was examined and mechanical properties were tested before and after heat treatment to study the influence of heat treatment on its mechanical properties including; modulus of elasticity, tensile strength, impact, and fatigue. The results showed that the modulus of elasticity of the prepared alloy is higher than standard alloy about 2%. While the alloy that heat treated for 6 h and cooled in water, then showed a higher ultimate tensile stress comparing with as-cast alloy. The homogenous heat treatment gives best fatigue