Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The study aims to highlighting the Creative Accounting practices, identifying  their impact on non reliability of financial statement of Insurance companies and Iraqi Public Reinsurance Company. Certain executive managements resort to creative accounting to falsely portray a better image to financial statement users by means of a set of techniques and mechanisms. Thus, impacting the company activities, The study was carried out in state insurance companies and Iraqi Public Reinsurance Company. Miller model is adopted to measure earning management practices. It is one of the tools to detect creative accounting practices and to measure reliability of accounting information of financial statements by applying  “White” scale on

Due to the significance of hospital drinking water, a study was done to assess the water in three hospitals in Baghdad (Al-Yarmouk Teaching Hospital, Ibn Sina Hospital, and Ibn-Al-Nafis Hospital) for its nature and quality, compare it to other hospitals in terms of its physical, chemical, and bacterial specifications, and compare it to international standards. According to Iraqi standards from 2009 and WHO standards from 2011, Chemical factors were measured, which included pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), and Calcium Ion (Ca+2). Reported readings are all within acceptable ranges for drinking water. In contrast, turbidity, total hardness (T.H.), chlorides (Cl-), magnesium (Mg+2), the number of aerobic plates (APC), total coliform (T

Background: The thyroid gland, a vital endocrine organ, the thyroid gland synthesizes and secretes hormones, such as triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), and calcitonin. The pineal gland produces and releases melatonin, which is stimulated in the dark and suppressed in the presence of light. Objectives: This study aimed to assess how melatonin influences adult male rats’ thyroid performance.Methods: Eighteen adults male Wistar albino rats (Rattus norvegicus) (approximately 12-14 weeks old and weighing 220±10 g) were randomly divided into three groups, each containing six rats, and were treated for 30 days as follows: The control group (A) received distilled water (DW). The A1 group received 10 mg/kg body weight (B.W.) of melatonin oral

The present study includs the isolation and identification of Keratinophilic fungi in fresh water samples collected from Tigris river in Baghdad, Iraq. Samples were collected from different districts of Baghdad (Al-Rustumia, Madina Al-Teb, Al-Azamia, Al-Kadimia, Al-Dorha and Al-Kanah). The water samples were examined for keratinophilic fungi by the plating method culturing and Hair Baiting Technique. A total number of 18 genera are recorded, in which the Tigris water indicates an impressive diversity of fungi. A variety of fungal strains were isolated from river water, out of 814 fungal colonies, Aspergillus terrus (5.5%) was the most frequent species, followed by Asperg

The construction sector is considered an important and influential pivot in the national economy of any country.  Nations are working to develop this sector, receiving modern and developed techniques. So, this sector can be a carrier or a receiver of modern technologies. The cost of technology transfer between the international companies that sponsor this sector is a matter of great importance, especially since different factors affect the need for this advanced technology. The cost of technology transfer in construction is related to multiple factors presented by Knowledge, equipment, plant, hardware and software. The lack of distinguishing and evaluating the direct and indirect costs in the construction sector during

The Quality  function deployment (QFD)  tool is an important  tool of total quality management because its a link between two important parts customer and production process of the product, using advanced House of quality, which contributed to provide more details about improving the product before it had a vision for the future of the product be improved. Also the identification of the two competitors (Alwazeer , Altouri) bases on the survey of retailers  which they identified five competitors products (Alwazeer , Altouri , Ferry , Jif , Dina)for the product (Zahi). Then House of quality  to product (Zahi) has been developed  By using a Kano Model  to classify of customer's requirements for the

       The subject of the information technology system ( ITS ) of the important issues And contemporary thought in management, and various types of organizations seeking to apply and try to