Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

The analysis of detective novels has taken different aspects. The linguistic analysis of them, for example, has tackled the linguistic systems of morphology, phonology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics. In line with the linguistic analysis, this study explores the various pragmatic and stylistic devices realized through detective novels for the purpose of misdirecting and deceiving the reader. The problem is that when readers try to reach to the truth, they face difficulties. They might not reach to the right solution or infer wrong conclusions because writers use some techniques to hide the truth and mislead them. This study aims at examining these techniques and devices; namely, Grice's Maxims and ambiguity as pragmatic devices on the

In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and studied to describe the spread of shigellosis disease in the population community. We consider it divided into four classes namely: the 1^st class consists of  unaware susceptible individuals, 2^nd class of infected individuals, 3^rd class of aware susceptible individuals and 4^th class are people carrying bacteria. The solution existence, uniqueness as well as bounded-ness are discussed for the shigellosis model proposed. Also, the stability analysis has been conducted for all possible equilibrium points. Finally the proposed model is studied numerically to prove the analytic results and discussing the effects of the external sources for dis

Joseph Curtis wrote in his book (Introduction to Semiotics narrative and rhetoric) on the development of a semiotic project in exploring the meaning of communion. The book is rich in theoretical and analytical benefits both in the approach of texts and in the pursuit of letters in search of mechanisms of scriptural and scriptural generation and mechanics in narrative production, especially as the book offers exercises that help to assess the distance separating the narrative spread from the sin of the text, for the semiotics, Refers to the theoretical developments of the science of relations, through the combination of conventional definitions and the representative and comparative limitations, to provide an approach to the application o

      Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir

Identity is an influential and flexible concept in social sciences and political studies. The basic sense of identity is looking for uniqueness. In one sense, it is a sign of identification with those we assume they are similar to us or at least in some significant ways they are so. Globalization, migration, modern technologies, media and political conflicts are argued to have a crucial effect on identity representation in terms of the political perspectives specifically in the United States of America. This paper endeavors to investigate how American politicians represent their identities in speeches delivered in different periods of time namely from 2015 to 2018 in terms of the pragmatic paradigm. Three randomly selected speeches by fa

DBN Rashid, International Journal of Innovation, Creativity and Change, 2020

Pragmatics looked at literary discourse as an external subject that needed an actor and based on a communicative relationship, that is, it examines literary work by focusing on the author's intent, and attempting to monitor the pilgrim and logical dimension in the text. It focuses on the practical and communicative aspect of the language, which aims to convince the recipient and his or her emotional influence.And the novel (Yamrim) starting from the title (Sos) communication, and building dialogue and pilgrims based on two different logic completely, the logic of optimism and look at things with absolute objectivity, the logic of pessimism and closure and look at things with absolute passion. These two tendencies are embodied by the char

Colonialism invades the Third World countries, physically and psychologically. This article exposes but sample of the physical and psychological consequences of colonialism. The Beekeeper of Aleppo (2019) by the British novelist, Christy Lefteri is a typical novel to diagnose the harsh circumstances of individuals within and after the disaster. Since it depicts characters from Asian countries, it would be a best representative for all Asian people who suffer colonialism. Migration toward anonymity is the mere option for the colonized people. Aftermath, they experience displacement, trauma, and the loss of identity.