In this study, we review the ARIMA (p, d, q), the EWMA and the DLM (dynamic linear moodelling) procedures in brief in order to accomdate the ac(autocorrelation)  structure of data .We consider the recursive estimation and prediction algorithms based on Bayes and KF (Kalman filtering) techniques for correlated observations.We investigate the effect on the MSE of  these procedures and compare them using generated data.

Through recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth

The status of the semi total stoppage and non-use and waste of economic made studying and analyzing Dutch disease of high importance because it is a major cause in aggravation of this status which happened to the Iraqi economy in almost complete way and the relative big importance that oil source has and its domination on the largest percentage in the gross domestic product and exports that Iraqi economy is relying largely in funding the national budget made the concentration of the study on this subject an important and necessary within the important economic events that Iraqi economy witnessed after 2003 till 2016 to give a clear and an overall picture of the reality of the unilateral Iraqi economy under the status of semi tota

Recent studies agree that the democratic system in a country can only be established in an atmosphere of political and religious freedom. However, the term democracy and the term freedom have become controversial because their concepts remain multiple and different. Karl Popper is one of the most prominent philosophers in modern Western political thought, and one of the defenders of democracy as opposite to dictatorship. It has defined its function by its ability to restrain the ruling elite and to enforce it to prevent their tendency to tyranny. This can be achieved only in the context of the close relationship between democracy and freedom, so, if there is democracy in the absence of absolute freedom, democracy is a gateway to expandin

This narrative review focused on research investigating the impact of loneliness on the prevalence of dementia and its relationship with other risk factors. A comprehensive and rigorous search was conducted using a variety of scientific databases with specific keywords to identify all prior studies that examined the correlation between dementia and loneliness. The inquiry was confined to articles published in English from January 2017 to March 2024. The narrative review identified a consensus regarding the role of loneliness in enhancing the risk of all‐cause dementia, with a particular emphasis on the subjective perception of loneliness. This phenomenon may be caused by the sensations of exclusion, discrimination, and alienation that are

Abstract Introduction: Aphthous stomatitis is a recurring oral ulceration condition that affects a significant proportion of the population. While several factors have been proposed to contribute to its occurrence, the link between caffeine consumption, anxiety levels, and the development of aphthous stomatitis remains unknown. This survey-based study aimed to understand the association between coffee, anxiety, and the development of aphthous stomatitis in this specific demographic, which can provide useful insights for medical management as well as preventive strategies. Material and methods: A structured online questionnaire was distributed via various social media platforms targeting a sample of the Armenian population. The quest

The nature of the political system of any country in the international system must have an impact on the policy of the State, whether in the interior or exterior, both regional and international, Turkey is one of the most important countries in the Middle East, which have a place and effectiveness on the surrounding environment, hence the importance of research lies in its political system and the transfer of power in it and its transformation from the form of the parliamentary system to the presidential system of the repercussions of the task and mutual effects between Turkey and the countries of the surrounding region in terms of the extent of achieving political stability in the Turkish interior or not and how this can be refl

The "Corona" pandemic that strikes the world has cast a shadow over contractual obligations, whether between individuals or companies, and emergency accidents and force majeure circumstances have a direct impact on them. Here, the legislation intervenes and sets the legal mechanisms to restore the obligations to their equal status and achieve the economic balance of the contract. Health crises are among the material facts whose effects are reflected and their features can be monitored on legal relations in general and contractual relations in particular, including the extent of the impact that this pandemic can have on the obligations that arise within the framework of a contractual relationship, which can be talked about in my theory Force