Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

When a vehicle is left parked in the sun for an extended period, the gathered heat causes damage to several interiors within the cabin and causes discomfort for people and animals left inside the car. In the present work, the effect of the orientation of a parked white minibus on temperature distribution and cooling load calculation is studied experimentally in an open environment. Two different cases were studied facing south and facing east. For several hours, the temperature inside the car cabin had been monitored and measured at five separate locations. The cooling load calculations are carried out based on the experimental measurements. The results show that the overheating of parked cars always happens as a result

Verbal Antonyms: A research in the relationship in meaning Between the words in Arabic language

Ajloun Governorate is considered the smallest governorate in Jordan in terms of area, and its population density rises to 472.2 people/ km² and is distributed among five municipalities. The Al-Shafa municipality is one of these municipalities. Al-Shafa is rich in its natural and human resources, and the first municipal council was established in it in 2001.

This study seeks to achieve the following general objective: inventory the natural and human resources that Al-Shafa enjoys, and highlight the role of Al-Shafa municipality in achieving and settling sustainable development for the local community. Certain content, which are: the comprehensive approach to geographical reality, the descriptive

The study aimed to reveal the extent of the first intermediate grade science curriculum focus on the national values, health, environmental, economic values, in the light of the education policy in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in addition to present a proposed vision to strengthen it in the science curriculum for the first intermediate grade. The study was applied to the two books student and the two books of activity on the first-second semesters for the academic year 1441 AH. To analyze the curriculum content, the study used a verified card prepared by the researchers and a criterion for interpreting percentages. The study reached the following results: environmental values ranked first with a concentration of (43%), i.e. with an avera

Cohesion is well known as the study of the relationships, whether grammatical and/or lexical, between the different elements of a particular text by the use of what are commonly called 'cohesive devices'. These devices bring connectivity and bind a text together. Besides, the nature and the amount of such cohesive devices usually affect the understanding of that text in the sense of making it easier to comprehend.  The present study is intendedto examine the use of grammatical cohesive devicesin relation to narrative techniques. The story of Joseph from the Holy Quran has been selected to be examined by using Halliday and Hasan's Model of Cohesion (1976, 1989). The aim of the study is to comparatively examine to what extent the type

A harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in preyis investigated. It is assumed that the predator feeds on the infected prey only according to Holling type-II functional response. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The local stability analysis of the harvested prey-predator model is carried out. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the persistence of the model are also obtained. Finally, the global dynamics of this model is investigated analytically as well as numerically. It is observed that, the model have different types of dynamical behaviors including chaos.

The current study aims to identify the needs in the stories of the Brothers Grimm. The research sample consisted of (3) stories, namely: 1- The story of the Thorn Rose (Sleeping Beauty) 2- The story of Snow White 3- The story of Little Red Riding Hood. The number of pages analyzed reached (15.5) pages, and to achieve the research objectives, Murray's classification of needs was adopted, which contains (36) basic needs that are further divided into (129) sub-needs. The idea was adopted as a unit of analysis and repetition as a unit of enumeration, Reliability was extracted in two ways: 1- Agreement between the researcher and himself over time, where the agreement coefficient reached 97%. The second was agreement between the researcher and tw