Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
This work examines numerically the effects of particle size, particle thermal conductivity and inlet velocity of forced convection heat transfer in uniformly heated packed duct. Four packing material (Aluminum, Alumina, Glass and Nylon) with range of thermal conductivity (from200 W/m.K for Aluminum to 0.23 W/m.K for Nylon), four particle diameters (1, 3, 5 and 7 cm), inlet velocity ( 0.07, 0.19 and 0.32 m/s) and constant heat flux ( 1000, 2000 and 3000 W/ m 2) were investigated. Results showed that heat transfer (average Nusselt number Nuav) increased with increasing packing conductivity; inlet velocity and heat flux, but decreased with increasing particle size.Also, Aluminum average Nusselt number is about (0.85,2.
... Show MoreThe moisture sorption isotherms of Mefenamic acid tablets were investigated by measuring the experimental equilibrium moisture content (EMC) using the static method of saturated salt solutions at three temperatures (25, 35, and 45°C) and water activity range from 0.056 to 0.8434. The results showed that EMC increased when relative humidity increased and the sorption capacity decreased, the tablets became less hygroscopic and more stable when the temperature increased at constant water activity. The sorption curves had a sigmoid shape, type II according to Brunauer’s classification. The hysteresis effect was significant along with the whole sorption process. The results were fitted to three models: Oswin, Smith, and Guggen
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This paper represents a study of the effect of the soil type, the drilling parameters and the drilling tool properties on the dynamic vibrational behavior of the drilling rig and its assessment in the drilling system. So first, an experimental drilling rig was designed and constructed to embrace the numerical work.
The experimental work included implementation of the drill-string in different types of soil with different properties according to the difference in the grains size, at different rotational speeds (RPM), and different weights on bit (WOB) (Thrust force), in a way that allows establishing the charts that correlate the vibration acceleration, the rate of penetration (ROP), and the power
... Show MoreA new derivative applied to the old gravity Bouguer map (served in 1940s and 1950s), taking regional study area covered the mid and south of Iraq. The gravity anomaly reflects a density contrast variation; therefore it is possible to use gravity inversion to the density and velocity model through layers (615m, 1100m, 1910m, 2750m and 5290m), the depth layers according to the power spectrum analysis of gravity Bouguer. The inversion is according to the integration of gravity anomalies of the each depth layer with the same depth of wells data, considered to the estimations and analysis of density and velocity scatters of the oil wells distribution with depth at the regional area. Taking the relation
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The prevention of bankruptcy not only prolongs the economic life of the company and increases its financial performance, but also helps to improve the general economic well-being of the country. Therefore, forecasting the financial shortfall can affect various factors and affect different aspects of the company, including dividends. In this regard, this study examines the prediction of the financial deficit of companies that use the logistic regression method and its impact on the earnings per share of companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The time period of the research is from 2015 to 2020, where 33 companies that were accepted in the Iraqi Stock Exchange were selected as a sample, and the res
... Show MoreAn accurate assessment of the pipes’ conditions is required for effective management of the trunk sewers. In this paper the semi-Markov model was developed and tested using the sewer dataset from the Zublin trunk sewer in Baghdad, Iraq, in order to evaluate the future performance of the sewer. For the development of this model the cumulative waiting time distribution of sewers was used in each condition that was derived directly from the sewer condition class and age data. Results showed that the semi-Markov model was inconsistent with the data by adopting ( 2 test) and also, showed that the error in prediction is due to lack of data on the sewer waiting times at each condition state which can be solved by using successive conditi
... Show MoreThe traditional shortest path problem is mainly concerned with identifying the associated paths in the transportation network that represent the shortest distance between the source and the destination in the transportation network by finding either cost or distance. As for the problem of research under study it is to find the shortest optimal path of multi-objective (cost, distance and time) at the same time has been clarified through the application of a proposed practical model of the problem of multi-objective shortest path to solve the problem of the most important 25 commercial US cities by travel in the car or plane. The proposed model was also solved using the lexicographic method through package program Win-QSB 2.0 for operation
... Show MoreImaging by Ultrasound (US) is an accurate and useful modality for the assessment of gestational age (GA), estimation fetal weight, and monitoring the fetal growth during pregnancy, is a routine part of prenatal care, and that can greatly impact obstetric management. Estimation of GA is important in obstetric care, making appropriate management decisions requires accurate appraisal of GA. Accurate GA estimation may assist obstetricians in appropriately counseling women who are at risk of a preterm delivery about likely neonatal outcomes, and it is essential in the evaluation of the fetal growth and detection of intrauterine growth restriction. There are many formulas are used to estimate fetal GA in the world, but it's not specify fo
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