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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Comparison between Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Methods for parameters and the Reliability function of Perks Distribution
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In this paper, we have derived Bayesian estimation for the parameters and reliability function of Perks distribution based on two different loss functions, Lindley’s approximation has been used to obtain those values. It is assumed that the parameter behaves as a random variable have a Gumbell Type P prior with non-informative is used. And after the derivation of mathematical formulas of those estimations, the simulation method was used for comparison depending on mean square error (MSE) values and integrated mean absolute percentage error (IMAPE) values respectively. Among of conclusion that have been reached, it is observed that, the LE-NR estimate introduced the best perform for estimating the parameter λ.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Hybrid Estimation System for Medical Diagnosis using Modified Full Bayesian Classifier and Artificial Bee Colony
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This paper presents a hybrid approach called Modified Full Bayesian Classifier (M-FBC) and Artificial Bee Colony (MFBC-ABC) for using it to medical diagnosis support system. The datasets are taken from Iraqi hospitals, these are for the heart diseases and the nervous system diseases. The M-FBC is depended on common structure known as naïve Bayes. The structure for network is represented by D-separated for structure's variables. Each variable has Condition Probability Tables (CPTs) and each table for disease has Probability. The ABC is easy technique for implementation, has fewer control parameters and it could be easier than other swarm optimization algorithms, so that hybrid with other algorithms to reach the optimal structure. In the

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 20 2020
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Inference for the Parameter and Reliability Function of Basic Gompertz Distribution under Precautionary loss Function
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     In this paper, some estimators for the unknown shape parameter and reliability function of Basic Gompertz distribution have been obtained, such as Maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimators under Precautionary loss function using Gamma prior and Jefferys prior. Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to compare mean squared errors (MSE) for all these estimators for the shape parameter and integrated mean squared error (IMSE's) for comparing the performance of the Reliability estimators. Finally, the discussion is provided to illustrate the results that summarized in tables.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using the Sherrod model in predicting financial failure in Iraqi private banks: an applied study in the Iraqi commercial and Iraqi Islamic banks
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Abstract:

              The phenomenon of financial failure is one of the phenomena that requires special attention and in-depth study due to its significant impact on various parties, whether they are internal or external and those who benefit from financial performance reports. With the increase in cases of bankruptcy and default facing companies and banks, interest has increased in understanding the reasons that led to this financial failure. This growing interest should be a reason to develop models and analytical methods that help in the early detection of this increasing phenomenon in recent year   . The research examines the use of

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Stability of Back Propagation Training Algorithm for Neural Networks
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In this paper, we derive and prove the stability bounds of the momentum coefficient µ and the learning rate ? of the back propagation updating rule in Artificial Neural Networks .The theoretical upper bound of learning rate ? is derived and its practical approximation is obtained

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Theoretical and Experimental Studies for Inhibition Potentials of Imidazolidine 4-One and Oxazolidine 5-One Derivatives for the Corrosion of Carbon Steel in Sea Water
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Two derivatives of Iimidazolidin 4-one (IMID4) and Oxazolidin 5-one (OXAZ5), were investigated as corrosion inhibitors of corrosion carbon steel in sea water by employing the theoretical and experimental methods. The results revealed that they inhibit the corrosion process and their %IE followed the order: IMID4 (89.093%) > OXAZ5 (80.179%). The %IE obtained via theoretical and experimental methods were in a good agreement with each other. The thermodynamic parameters obtained by potentiometric polarization measurements have supported a physical adsorption mechanism which followed Langmuir adsorption isotherm. Quantum mechanical method of Density Functional Theory (DFT) of B3LYP with a level of 6-311++G (2d, 2p) were used to calculate

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 09 2024
Journal Name
مجلة واسط للعلوم الریاضیة
The development of judo from a historical perspective (1880-1980)
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Judo has witnessed tremendous developments since its inception until the present day. It has been distinguished by its adaptation to the various challenges it has faced throughout the ages. Judo is one of the sports that have been affected by social, technological and cultural changes. These changes reflect its transformation from the traditional Japanese martial art to a global sport practiced. All over the world, therefore, studying the historical development of judo is important, as it provides valuable insights into the development of martial arts over a century, by studying the origins, principles and techniques of judo for the period (1880 - 1980), and also enables us to gain an understanding A deeper understanding of how the art form

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Investigation the Influence of SPIF Parameters on Residual Stresses for Angular Surfaces Based on Iso-Planar Tool Path
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Incremental Sheet Metal Forming (ISMF) is a modern sheet metal forming technology which offers the possibility of manufacturing 3D complex parts of thin sheet metals using the CNC milling machine. The surface quality is a very important aspect in any manufacturing process. Therefore, this study focuses on the resultant residual stresses by forming parameters, namely; (tool shape, step over, feed rate, and slope angle) using Taguchi method for the products formed by single point incremental forming process (SPIF). For evaluating the surface quality, practical experiments to produce pyramid like shape have been implemented on aluminum sheets (AA1050) for thickness (0.9) mm. Three types of tool shape used in this work, the spherical tool ga

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