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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An approximate solution for solving linear system of integral equation with application on "Stiff" problems
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An approximate solution of the liner system of ntegral cquations fot both fredholm(SFIEs)and Volterra(SIES)types has been derived using taylor series expansion.The solusion is essentailly

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Correlating Capillary Pressure and Resistivity Index for Carbonate Reservoir
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Capillary pressure is a significant parameter in characterizing and modeling petroleum reservoirs. However, costly laboratory measurements may not be sufficiently available in some cases. The problem amplifies for carbonate reservoirs because relatively enormous capillary pressure curves are required for reservoir study due to heterogeneity. In this work, the laboratory measurements of capillary pressure and formation resistivity index were correlated as both parameters are functions of saturation. Forty-one core samples from an Iraqi carbonate reservoir were used to develop the correlation according to the hydraulic flow units concept. Flow zone indicator (FZI) and Pore Geometry and Structure (PGS) approaches were used to identify

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Correlating Capillary Pressure and Resistivity Index for Carbonate Reservoir
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Capillary pressure is a significant parameter in characterizing and modeling petroleum reservoirs. However, costly laboratory measurements may not be sufficiently available in some cases. The problem amplifies for carbonate reservoirs because relatively enormous capillary pressure curves are required for reservoir study due to heterogeneity. In this work, the laboratory measurements of capillary pressure and formation resistivity index were correlated as both parameters are functions of saturation. Forty-one core samples from an Iraqi carbonate reservoir were used to develop the correlation according to the hydraulic flow units concept. Flow zone indicator (FZI) and Pore Geometry and Structure (PGS) approaches were used to identify

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 15 2022
Journal Name
Romanian Neurosurgery
Coil migration during pressure-cooker technique for cerebral AVM
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Introduction: In recent decades, the endovascular treatment of cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) has advanced. However, it still carries risks of unanticipated complications. Coil migration is a reported complication of aneurysmal coiling procedures. Herein, we report a case of early intraprocedural coil migration during pressure cooker technique embolization of right thalamic AVM, discussing the management and potential explanations. The literature showed no report of coil migration after the pressure cooker technique in the form of coil-augmented Onyx injection technique (CAIT). Case description: An otherwise healthy 26-year-old female suddenly developed a severe headache with no loss of consciousness. Computed tomograp

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Improved Naked Mole-Rat Algorithm Based on Variable Neighborhood Search for the N-Queens Problem
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     Solving problems via artificial intelligence techniques has widely prevailed in different aspects. Implementing artificial intelligence optimization algorithms for NP-hard problems is still challenging. In this manuscript, we work on implementing the Naked Mole-Rat Algorithm (NMRA) to solve the n-queens problems and overcome the challenge of applying NMRA to a discrete space set. An improvement of NMRA is applied using the aspect of local search in the Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm (VNS) with 2-opt and 3-opt. Introducing the Naked Mole Rat algorithm based on variable neighborhood search (NMRAVNS) to solve N-queens problems with different sizes. Finding the best solution or set of solutions within a plausible amount of t

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Publication Date
Sun May 21 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Analyses of Ridge Regression Prooblems
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   A Bayesian formulation of the ridge regression problem is considerd, which derives from a direct specification of prior informations about parameters of general linear regression model when data suffer from a high degree of multicollinearity.A new approach for deriving the conventional estimator for the ridge parameter proposed by Hoerl and Kennard (1970) as well as  Bayesian estimator  are presented. A numerical example is studied in order to   compare the performance of these estimators.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayesian methods to estimate sub - population
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The aim of the research is to estimate the hidden population. Here، the number of drug users in Baghdad was calculated for the male age group (15-60) years old ، based on the Bayesian models. These models are used to treat some of the bias in the Killworth method Accredited in many countries of the world.

Four models were used: random degree، Barrier effects، Transmission bias، the first model being random، an extension of the Killworth model، adding random effects such as variance and uncertainty Through the size of the personal network، and when expanded by adding the fact that the respondents have different tendencies، the mixture of non-random variables with random to produce

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Solving Nonlinear Boundary Value Problem Arising of Natural Convection Porous Fin By Using the Haar Wavelet Collocation Method and Temimi and Ansari Method
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      In this article, the boundary value problem of convection propagation through the permeable fin in a natural convection environment is solved by the Haar wavelet collocation method (HWCM). We also compare the solutions with the application of a semi-analytical method , namely the Temimi and Ansari (TAM), that is characterized by accuracy and efficiency.The proposed method is also characterized by simplicity and efficiency. The possibility of applying the proposed method to many types of  linear or nonlinear ordinary and partial differential equations.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 10 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Psychosocial Rehabilitation
Hybridization Methodology of ARMA-FIGARCH Model to Examine Gasoline Data in Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Test anxiety for intermediate level
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Test anxiety for intermediate level The current study aims to measure the test anxiety of research’s sample and to identify the statistical differences of test anxiety, considering two variables gender and students classes level (first and third intermediate class). To do this, a stratified random sampling of (300) student from first and third intermediate classes had selected from both the karkh and Rusafa sides of Baghdad province for the academic year 2015-2016. The author tested the whole sample by using the test anxiety scale that had tested for its validity and reliability. The results revealed that the research’s sample as a whole was suffering from test anxiety, there were a statistical differences between male and female tha

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