Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
The researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting
... Show MoreTo avoid the negative effects due to inflexibility of the domestic production inresponse to the increase in government consumption expenditure leads to more imports to meet the increase in domestic demand resulting from the increase in government consumption expenditure. Since the Iraqi economy economy yield unilateral depends on oil revenues to finance spending, and the fact government consumer spending is a progressive high flexibility the increase in overall revenues, while being a regressive flexibility is very low in the event of reduced public revenues, and therefore lead to a deficit in the current account position. And that caused the deficit for imbalance are the disruption of the
... Show MoreThis study involved the effect of anew nickel (II) complexs with formla [NiL2(H2O)2].2.5ETOH where L=Bis[5-(p-nitrophenyL)-4-phenyL-1,2,4-traizole-3-dithocarbamato hydrazide] diaqua. nickel(II). Ethanol(2.5).and anti-cancer drug cyclophosphamide on specific actifity of two Liver enzymes (GOT,GPT) in the (Liver,kidney) tissues and on the creatinine Level in the kidney byUtilizing an invivosystem in femalmice.The result showed that inhibition in the activity of GPT and GOT enzymes in theLiver and in both nickel (II) complex and cyclophosphamide drug (CP) . mice weretreated with three doses (90,180,320) µg/mouse for three days for each group.The Liver show's the highest rate of GPT inhibition was about 97.43% at180µg/mouse regarding the ki
... Show MoreIts well known that understanding human facial expressions is a key component in understanding emotions and finds broad applications in the field of human-computer interaction (HCI), has been a long-standing issue. In this paper, we shed light on the utilisation of a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) for facial emotion recognition from videos using the TensorFlow machine-learning library from Google. This work was applied to ten emotions from the Amsterdam Dynamic Facial Expression Set-Bath Intensity Variations (ADFES-BIV) dataset and tested using two datasets.
Mixture experiments are response variables based on the proportions of component for this mixture. In our research we will compare the scheffʼe model with the kronecker model for the mixture experiments, especially when the experimental area is restricted.
Because of the experience of the mixture of high correlation problem and the problem of multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, which has an effect on the calculation of the Fisher information matrix of the regression model.
to estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used the (generalized inverse ) And the Stepwise Regression procedure
... Show MoreThis paper proposes improving the structure of the neural controller based on the identification model for nonlinear systems. The goal of this work is to employ the structure of the Modified Elman Neural Network (MENN) model into the NARMA-L2 structure instead of Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model in order to construct a new hybrid neural structure that can be used as an identifier model and a nonlinear controller for the SISO linear or nonlinear systems. Two learning algorithms are used to adjust the parameters weight of the hybrid neural structure with its serial-parallel configuration; the first one is supervised learning algorithm based Back Propagation Algorithm (BPA) and the second one is an intelligent algorithm n
... Show MoreThe study of topography most important studies and depth of any literary or artistic text and occupy the thinking of many who work in art at generally. There is hardly any film scenario from description in general of the indispensable elements of the composition and place one. So the place starts form since the scriptwriter begins to view the result of the description begins to feature the emergence of there are simple operations in the scenario soon to receive growth as a final achievement in the film. The description of the place begins to take on an allegorical character as a language version in the script, soon translated into another language, the language of the picture. Which in turn complement the creative ring of cinematic art a
... Show MoreThe current research tackles the self-efficacy and its relation to the cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances for the University of Baghdad students. Two criteria have been adopted to achieve the objectives of the research. The sample of this study consists of 200 male and female students who were chosen randomly. The data were analyzed statistically, revealing that the university students owned their own self-efficacy as well as a cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances and they recognized them as self-threatening. The results also indicated the existence of a prediction activity in the field of the cognitive assessment to the daily disturbances selection. In light of the acquired results, the study recommends the neces
... Show MoreThe gravity anomalies of the Jurassic and deep structures were obtained by stripping the gravity effect of Cretaceous and Tertiary formations from the available Bouguer gravity map in central and south Iraq. The gravity effect of the stripped layers was determined depending on the density log or the density density obtained from the sonic log. The density relation with the seismic velocity of Gardner et al (1974) was used to obtain density from sonic logs in case of a lack of density log. The average density of the Cretaceous and Tertiary formation were determined then the density contrast of these formations was obtained. The density contrast and thickness of all stratigraphic formations in the area between the sea level to t
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