Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
The aim of this paper is to approximate multidimensional functions by using the type of Feedforward neural networks (FFNNs) which is called Greedy radial basis function neural networks (GRBFNNs). Also, we introduce a modification to the greedy algorithm which is used to train the greedy radial basis function neural networks. An error bound are introduced in Sobolev space. Finally, a comparison was made between the three algorithms (modified greedy algorithm, Backpropagation algorithm and the result is published in [16]).
Generally, statistical methods are used in various fields of science, especially in the research field, in which Statistical analysis is carried out by adopting several techniques, according to the nature of the study and its objectives. One of these techniques is building statistical models, which is done through regression models. This technique is considered one of the most important statistical methods for studying the relationship between a dependent variable, also called (the response variable) and the other variables, called covariate variables. This research describes the estimation of the partial linear regression model, as well as the estimation of the “missing at random” values (MAR). Regarding the
... Show MoreIn this research, the nonparametric technique has been presented to estimate the time-varying coefficients functions for the longitudinal balanced data that characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects, each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m). Although the measurements are independent among the different subjects; they are mostly connected within each subject and the applied techniques is the Local Linear kernel LLPK technique. To avoid the problems of dimensionality, and thick computation, the two-steps method has been used to estimate the coefficients functions by using the two former technique. Since, the two-
... Show MoreIn this study, the behavior of screw piles models with continuous helix was studied by conducting laboratory experimental tests on a single screw pile that has several aspect ratios (L/D) under the influence of static axial compression loads. The screw piles were inserted in a soft soil that has a unit weight of 18.72 kN/m3 and moisture content of 30.19%. Also, the soil has a liquid limit of 55% and a plasticity index of 32%. A physical laboratory model was designed to investigate the ultimate compression capacity of the screw pile and measure the generated porewater pressure during the loading process. The bedding soil was prepared according to the field unit weight and moisture content and the failure load was assumed correspondin
... Show MoreThis article suggests and explores a three-species food chain model that includes fear effects, refuges depending on predators, and cannibalism at the second level. The Holling type II functional response determines food consumption between stages of the food chain. This study examined the long-term behavior and impacts of the suggested model's essential elements. The model's solution properties were studied. The existence and stability of every probable equilibrium point were examined. The persistence needs of the system have been determined. It was discovered what conditions could lead to local bifurcation at equilibrium points. Appropriate Lyapunov functions are utilized to investigate the overall dynamics of the system. To support the a
... Show MoreThe current research tackles the self-efficacy and its relation to the cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances for the University of Baghdad students. Two criteria have been adopted to achieve the objectives of the research. The sample of this study consists of 200 male and female students who were chosen randomly. The data were analyzed statistically, revealing that the university students owned their own self-efficacy as well as a cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances and they recognized them as self-threatening. The results also indicated the existence of a prediction activity in the field of the cognitive assessment to the daily disturbances selection. In light of the acquired results, the study recommends the neces
... Show MoreIn the current study, the researchers have been obtained Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Gamma distribution under the precautionary loss function, assuming the priors, represented by Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation.
Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s). The results show that, the performance of Bayes estimator under precautionary loss function with Gamma and Exponential priors is better than other estimates in all cases.
In this paper, two parameters for the Exponential distribution were estimated using the
Bayesian estimation method under three different loss functions: the Squared error loss function,
the Precautionary loss function, and the Entropy loss function. The Exponential distribution prior
and Gamma distribution have been assumed as the priors of the scale γ and location δ parameters
respectively. In Bayesian estimation, Maximum likelihood estimators have been used as the initial
estimators, and the Tierney-Kadane approximation has been used effectively. Based on the MonteCarlo
simulation method, those estimators were compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSEs).The results showed that the Bayesian esti
The estimation of quantity of liquid that is collected from gas/oil separation system is a very complex task because it requires the application of the flash calculations which needs to solve the cubic equation of state and to use some numerical techniques. These difficulties can be overcome by a computer model which requires a lot of experimental data, long time, and experience.
This paper adopts a new technique to simplify this problem. It suggests new correlations for optimum separator pressure for separation station of heavy oils. The correlations have been achieved for two- and three- stage separation systems.
The co