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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Bayesian methods to estimate the failure probability for electronic systems in case the life time data are not available
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In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company.  The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system.  This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system.  We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator.  We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after  it checked by the

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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Theoritical and Experimental Investigation of the Dynamical Behaviour of Complex Configuration Rotors
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The present work considers an alternative solution for a complex configuration of rotor discs by applying Galerkin Method. The theoretical model consists of elastic shaft carrying number of discs and supported on number of journal bearings. The equation of motion was discretized to finite degree of freedom in terms of the system generalized coordinates. The various effects of the dynamical forces and moments arising from the bearing, discs and shaft were included. Rayleigh beam model is used for analyzing the shaft while the discs are considered rigid . The validity and convergence of the present analysis was carefully checked by comparing with the Finite Element solution. An example of rotor consists of three different size discs and su

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the distribution parameters for the best rates of rainfall in Iraq
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This paper presents a statistical study for a suitable distribution of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq

 Using two types of distributions for the period (2005-2015). The researcher suggested log normal distribution, Mixed exponential distribution of each rovince were tested with the distributions to determine the optimal distribution of rainfall in Iraq. The distribution will be selected on the basis of minimum standards produced some goodness of fit  tests, which are to determine

Akaike (CAIC), Bayesian Akaike (BIC),  Akaike (AIC). It has been applied to distributions to find the right distribution of the data of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq was used (maximu

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2025
Journal Name
Geoenergy Science And Engineering
Empirical model for predicting slug-pseudo slug and slug-churn transitions of upward air/water flow
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A pseudo-slug flow is a type of intermittent flow characterized by short, frothy, chaotic slugs that have a structure velocity lower than the mixture velocity and are not fully formed. It is essential to accurately estimate the transition from conventional slug (SL) flow to pseudo-slug (PSL) flow, and from SL to churn (CH), by precisely predicting the pressure losses. Recent research has showed that PSL and CH flows comprise a significant portion of the conventional flow pattern maps. This is particularly true in wellbores and pipelines with highly deviated large-diameter gas-condensate wellbores and pipelines. Several theoretical and experimental works studied the behavior of PSL and CH flows; however, few models have been suggested to pre

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
3-D Object Recognition using Multi-Wavelet and Neural Network
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This search has introduced the techniques of multi-wavelet transform and neural network for recognition 3-D object from 2-D image using patches. The proposed techniques were tested on database of different patches features and the high energy subband of discrete multi-wavelet transform DMWT (gp) of the patches. The test set has two groups, group (1) which contains images, their (gp) patches and patches features of the same images as a part of that in the data set beside other images, (gp) patches and features, and group (2) which contains the (gp) patches and patches features the same as a part of that in the database but after modification such as rotation, scaling and translation. Recognition by back propagation (BP) neural network as com

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Publication Date
Thu May 05 2022
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Classification SINGLE-LEAD ECG by using conventional neural network algorithm
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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Multiphase Flow
Application of artificial neural network to predict slug liquid holdup
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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
3-D OBJECT RECOGNITION USING MULTI-WAVELET AND NEURAL NETWORK
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This search has introduced the techniques of multi-wavelet transform and neural network for recognition 3-D object from 2-D image using patches. The proposed techniques were tested on database of different patches features and the high energy subband of discrete multi-wavelet transform DMWT (gp) of the patches. The test set has two groups, group (1) which contains images, their (gp) patches and patches features of the same images as a part of that in the data set beside other images, (gp) patches and features, and group (2) which contains the (gp) patches and patches features the same as a part of that in the database but after modification such as rotation, scaling and translation. Recognition by back propagation (BP) neural network as

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 09 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Pose Invariant Palm Vein Identification System using Convolutional Neural Network
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Palm vein recognition is a one of the most efficient biometric technologies, each individual can be identified through its veins unique characteristics, palm vein acquisition techniques is either contact based or contactless based, as the individual's hand contact or not the peg of the palm imaging device, the needs a contactless palm vein system in modern applications rise tow problems, the pose variations (rotation, scaling and translation transformations) since the imaging device cannot aligned correctly with the surface of the palm, and a delay of matching process especially for large systems, trying to solve these problems. This paper proposed a pose invariant identification system for contactless palm vein which include three main

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