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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 13 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Mathematical Model For Determination the Increase in Operational Cost of Transmission Line From HAD3 to QIM3 in Electric Power System
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The transformation of a physical system to mathematical base is very important due to analysis of the systems behavior. In this paper an electric power system is considered, we design mathematical model for the determination of the increase in operational cost of transmission line from Haditha Dam substation to Qa'im substation . We derived relations which the approximate distance for VARS transmission must satisfy with considering minimum losses in the system. MATLAB computer programming is used to obtain the numerical results. The developed mathematical model and the numerical results could be useful to electric power systems engineers

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 11 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Control on a 2-D Wing Flutter Using an Adaptive Nonlinear Neural Controller
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An adaptive nonlinear neural controller to reduce the nonlinear flutter in 2-D wing is proposed in the paper. The nonlinearities in the system come from the quasi steady aerodynamic model and torsional spring in pitch direction. Time domain simulations are used to examine the dynamic aero elastic instabilities of the system (e.g. the onset of flutter and limit cycle oscillation, LCO). The structure of the controller consists of two models :the modified Elman neural network (MENN) and the feed forward multi-layer Perceptron (MLP). The MENN model is trained with off-line and on-line stages to guarantee that the outputs of the model accurately represent the plunge and pitch motion of the wing and this neural model acts as the identifier. Th

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Effect of Heterogeneity on Capillary Pressure and Relative Permeability Curves in Carbonate Reservoirs. A Case Study for Mishrif Formation in West Qurna/1 Oilfield, Iraq
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The special core analysis tests were accomplished on a set of core plugs for Mishrif Formation (mA, mB1, and mB2cde/mC units) in West Qurna/1 oilfield, southern Iraq. Oil relative permeability (Kro) data and the Corey-type fit of the data as functions of the brine saturation at the core outlet face for individual samples in the water-oil imbibition process to estimate relative permeability measurements by the centrifuge method were utilized. Identical correlations for oil and water relative permeabilities were extracted by steady-state and unsteady-state methods. For the mA samples, the gas-water capillary pressure curves were within a narrow range (almost identical) indicating that mA is a homogeneous unit. Kro curves for three mB2

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Effect of Heterogeneity on Capillary Pressure and Relative Permeability Curves in Carbonate Reservoirs. A Case Study for Mishrif Formation in West Qurna/1 Oilfield, Iraq
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The special core analysis tests were accomplished on a set of core plugs for Mishrif Formation (mA, mB1, and mB2cde/mC units) in West Qurna/1 oilfield, southern Iraq. Oil relative permeability (Kro) data and the Corey-type fit of the data as functions of the brine saturation at the core outlet face for individual samples in the water-oil imbibition process to estimate relative permeability measurements by the centrifuge method were utilized. Identical correlations for oil and water relative permeabilities were extracted by steady-state and unsteady-state methods. For the mA samples, the gas-water capillary pressure curves were within a narrow range (almost identical) indicating that mA is a homogeneous unit. Kro curves for thr

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The effect of background argon gas pressure on parameters of plasma produced by Dc- glow discharge
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       Non-thermal plasmas have become popular as plasma technology has advanced in various fields, including waste management, aerospace technology, and medicinal applications. They can be used to replace combustion fuels in stationary hall motors and need little effort to keep running for longer periods of time. To improve overall system performance, non-reactive gases such as )Xe, Ar, and Kr) are utilized in pure or mixed form to generate plasma. Since DC glow discharge is a fundamental topic of importance, these gases have been researched. The paper concentrates on 2-D modeling and simulation. DC glow-discharge tubes are utilized with argon gas to create plasma and learn about its properties. The magnitude of t

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
International Journal Of Recent Research And Review
Influence of Discharge Pressure on the Plasma Parameter in a Planar Dc-Sputtering Discharge of Argon
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Abstract- Plasma parameters in a planar dc-sputtering discharge in argon were measured by cylindrical electrostatic probe (Langmuir probe).Electron density, electron temperature, floating potential, and space potential were monitored as a function of working discharge pressure. Electrostatic probe and supporting circuit were described and used to plot the current – voltage characteristics. Plasma properties were inferred from the current-voltage characteristics of a single probe positioned at the inter-cathode space. Typical values are in the range of (10-16 -10-17) m-3 and (2.93 – 5.3) eV for the electron density and the electron temperature respectively.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2001
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Combined Effect of Some Internal Ballisting Parameters on the Pressure Behavior of Solid Propellant Rocket Motor
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Fme Transaction
The influence of frictional facing thickness on the contact pressure distribution of multi-disc dry clutches
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Frictional heat is generated when the clutch starts to engag. As a result of this operation the surface temperature is increased rapidly due to the difference in speed between the driving and driven parts. The influence of the thickness of frictional facing on the distribution of the contact pressure of the multi-disc clutches has been investigated using a numerical approach (the finite element method). The analysis of contact problem has been carried out for a multiple disc dry clutch (piston, clutch discs, separators and pressure plate). The results present the distribution of the contact pressure on all tShe surfaces of friction discs that existed in the friction clutch system. Axisymmetric finite element models have been developed to ac

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 03 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The effect of background argon gas pressure on parameters of plasma produced by Dc- glow discharge
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Non-thermal plasmas have become popular as plasma technology has advanced in various fields, including waste management, aerospace technology, and medicinal applications. They can be used to replace combustion fuels in stationary hall motors and need little effort to keep running for longer periods of time. To improve overall system performance, non-reactive gases such as )Xe, Ar, and Kr) are utilized in pure or mixed form to generate plasma. Since DC glow discharge is a fundamental topic of importance, these gases have been researched. The paper concentrates on 2-D modeling and simulation. DC glow-discharge tubes are utilized with argon gas to create plasma and learn about its properties. The magnitude of the electron density, increases wi

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Magnetic Field Effect on the Characteristics of Large-Volume Glow Discharge in Argon at Low Pressure
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The magnetic field effect on the current-voltage characteristic curves of glow discharge in argon at low pressures has been experimentally investigated. The electrical discharge was ignited in a stainless steel tapered chamber of a nominal volume of 0.5m3 immersed inside a water-cooled coil capable of delivering a magnetic field of strength B of up to 0.42T. Three water-cooled electrodes were inserted into the chamber up to a point where their tips were 20cm away from the surface of the central column of the chamber. An enhancement of the electric field configuration within the region of the electrode assembly was performed by threading one of the electrodes with stainless circular discs(80mm and 140mm in diameter) in various forms(attac

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