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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimation of the lomax model based on upper record values under weighted LINEX loss function
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In this article, we developed a new loss function, as the simplification of linear exponential loss function (LINEX) by weighting LINEX function. We derive a scale parameter, reliability and the hazard functions in accordance with upper record values of the Lomax distribution (LD). To study a small sample behavior performance of the proposed loss function using a Monte Carlo simulation, we make a comparison among maximum likelihood estimator, Bayesian estimator by means of LINEX loss function and Bayesian estimator using square error loss (SE) function. The consequences have shown that a modified method is the finest for valuing a scale parameter, reliability and hazard functions.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Adoption of Membership Level for Critical Activities In Knowledge Chain Model Building An Investigation Analytical Study Depending on Fuzzy Logic Architecture for Organizations Pushed by Knowledge
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Abstract

   The aim of this research is to concentrate on the of knowledge management activities, initial activities: (Acquisition, Selection, Generation, Assimilation, Emission) knowledge, and support activities: (Measurement, Control, Coordination, Leadership) that is manipulate and controlling in achieving knowledge management cases in organization, that’s is leads to  knowledge chain model, then determining the level of membership for these activities to knowledge chain model in a sample of Iraqi organization pushed by knowledge (Universities). The research depends on check list for gaining the data required, theses check list designed by apparently  in diagnosing research dimensions and measurem

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Solving a three dimensional transportation problem using linear programming
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Transport is a problem and one of the most important mathematical methods that help in making the right decision for the transfer of goods from sources of supply to demand centers and the lowest possible costs, In this research, the mathematical model of the three-dimensional transport problem in which the transport of goods is not homogeneous was constructed. The simplex programming method was used to solve the problem of transporting the three food products (rice, oil, paste) from warehouses to the student areas in Baghdad, This model proved its efficiency in reducing the total transport costs of the three products. After the model was solved in (Winqsb) program, the results showed that the total cost of transportation is (269,

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Solving Job-Shop Scheduling Problem Using Genetic Algorithm Approach
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Intelligent Systems
A study on predicting crime rates through machine learning and data mining using text
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Abstract<p>Crime is a threat to any nation’s security administration and jurisdiction. Therefore, crime analysis becomes increasingly important because it assigns the time and place based on the collected spatial and temporal data. However, old techniques, such as paperwork, investigative judges, and statistical analysis, are not efficient enough to predict the accurate time and location where the crime had taken place. But when machine learning and data mining methods were deployed in crime analysis, crime analysis and predication accuracy increased dramatically. In this study, various types of criminal analysis and prediction using several machine learning and data mining techniques, based o</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Ryznar Index for the treated water from WTPs on Al-Karakh side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique
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In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI) of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side) in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3) have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad) including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI) with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respectively. For

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Spiking Neural Network in Precision Agriculture
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In this paper, precision agriculture system is introduced based on Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Soil moisture considered one of environment factors that effect on crop. The period of irrigation must be monitored. Neural network capable of learning the behavior of the agricultural soil in absence of mathematical model. This paper introduced modified type of neural network that is known as Spiking Neural Network (SNN). In this work, the precision agriculture system  is modeled, contains two SNNs which have been identified off-line based on logged data, one of these SNNs represents the monitor that located at sink where the period of irrigation is calculated and the other represents the soil. In addition, to reduce p

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hybrid Cipher System using Neural Network
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The objective of this work is to design and implement a cryptography system that enables the sender to send message through any channel (even if this channel is insecure) and the receiver to decrypt the received message without allowing any intruder to break the system and extracting the secret information. In this work, we implement an interaction between the feedforward neural network and the stream cipher, so the secret message will be encrypted by unsupervised neural network method in addition to the first encryption process which is performed by the stream cipher method. The security of any cipher system depends on the security of the related keys (that are used by the encryption and the decryption processes) and their corresponding le

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Neural Network with Speaker Applications
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In Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) the non-linear data projection provided by a one hidden layer Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), trained to recognize phonemes, and has previous experiments to provide feature enhancement substantially increased ASR performance, especially in noise. Previous attempts to apply an analogous approach to speaker identification have not succeeded in improving performance, except by combining MLP processed features with other features. We present test results for the TIMIT database which show that the advantage of MLP preprocessing for open set speaker identification increases with the number of speakers used to train the MLP and that improved identification is obtained as this number increases beyond sixty.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Tuning PID Controller by Neural Network for Robot Manipulator Trajectory Tracking
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Ziegler and Nichols proposed the well-known Ziegler-Nichols method to tune the coefficients of PID controller. This tuning method is simple and gives fixed values for the coefficients which make PID controller have weak adaptabilities for the model parameters variation and changing in operating conditions. In order to achieve adaptive controller, the Neural Network (NN) self-tuning PID control is proposed in this paper which combines conventional PID controller and Neural Network learning capabilities. The proportional, integral and derivative (KP, KI, KD) gains are self tuned on-line by the NN output which is obtained due to the error value on the desired output of the system under control. The conventio

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