There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

The problem of water scarcity is becoming common in many parts of the world, to overcome part of this problem proper management of water and an efficient irrigation system are needed.  Irrigation with a buried vertical ceramic pipe is known as a very effective in the management of irrigation water.  The two- dimensional transient flow of water from a buried vertical ceramic pipe through homogenous porous media is simulated numerically using the HYDRUS/2D software.  Different values of pipe lengths and hydraulic conductivity were selected.  In addition, different values of initial volumetric soil water content were assumed in this simulation as initial conditions.  Different value

In this study, the flow and heat transfer characteristics of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids for a range of the Reynolds number of 3000, 4500, 6000 and 7500 with a range of volume concentration of 1%, 2%, 3% and 4% are studied numerically. The test rig consists of cold liquid loop, hot liquid loop and the test section which is counter flow double pipe heat exchanger with 1m length. The inner tube is made of smooth copper with diameter of 15mm. The outer tube is made of smooth copper with diameter of 50mm. The hot liquid flows through the outer tube and the cold liquid (or nanofluid) flow through the inner tube. The boundary condition of this study is thermally insulated the outer wall with uniform velocity a

This paper is dealing with non-polynomial spline functions "generalized spline" to find the approximate solution of linear Volterra integro-differential equations of the second kind and extension of this work to solve system of linear Volterra integro-differential equations. The performance of generalized spline functions are illustrated in test examples

In this study the simple pullout concrete cylinder specimen reinforced by a single steel bar was analyzed for bond-slip behavior. Three-dimension nonlinear finite element model using ANSYS program was employed to study the behavior of bond between concrete and plain steel reinforcement. The ANSYS model includes eight-noded isoperimetric brick element (SOLID65) to model the concrete cylinder while the steel reinforcing bar was modeled as a truss member (LINK8). Interface element (CONTAC52) was used in this analysis to model the bond between concrete and steel bar. Material nonlinearity due to cracking and/or crushing of concrete, and yielding of the steel reinforcing bar were taken into consideration during the analysis. The accuracy of this

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the rate of contamination in soils by using accurate numerical method as a suitable tool to evaluate the concentration of heavy metals in soil. In particular, 2D –interpolation methods are applied in the models of the spread the metals in different direction.The paper illustrates the importance of the numerical method in different applications, especially nvironment contamination. Basically, there are many roles for approximating functions. Thus, the approximating of function namely the analytical expression may be expressed; the most common type being is polynomials, which are the easy implemented and simplest methods of approximation. In this paper the divided difference formula is used and extended

       In this work, a solid core photonic crystal fibre (SC-PCF) has been designed with endlessly single mode of which both centerd core and holes in the cladding are organized by circles. The designed SC-PCF has a single solid centerd core which is ringed by a six rings hexagonal cladding. The computation of  SC-PCF is  achieved by using the finite element method (FEM) with perfectly matched layer (PML) boundary condition. All the designed factors like dimensions and distance of both core and cladding areas have varied with an optimized structure. After ending the numerical calculation, the results shows that there are a link between the air hols in the cladding ,  and the different normaliz

There have been many advances in the solar chimney power plant  since 1930 and the first pilot work was built in Spain (Manzanares) that produced 50 KW. The solar chimney power plant is considered of a clean power generation that needs to be investigated  to enhance the performance by studying the effect of changing the area of passage of air to enhance the velocity towards the chimney to maximize design velocity. In this experimental and numerical study, the reduction area of solar collector was investigated. The reduction area that mean changing the height of glass cover from the absorbing plate (h1=3.8cm, h2=2.6cm and h3=1.28cm). The numerical study was performed using ANSYS Fluent software package (version 14.0) to solve go

This paper reports experimental and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling studies to investigate the effect of the swirl intensity on the heat transfer characteristics of conventional and swirl impingement air jets at a constant nozzle-to-plate distance ( L = 2 D). The experiments were performed using classical twisted tape inserts in a nozzle jet with three twist ratios ( y = 2.93, 3.91, and 4.89) and Reynolds numbers that varied from 4000 to 16000. The results indicate that the radial uniformity of Nusselt number (Nu) of swirl impingement air jets (SIJ) depended on the values of the swirl intensity and the air Reynolds number. The results also revealed that the SIJ that was fitted with an insert of y = 4.89, which correspo