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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Proceeding Of The 1st International Conference On Advanced Research In Pure And Applied Science (icarpas2021): Third Annual Conference Of Al-muthanna University/college Of Science
Dimensional analysis of predicting the removal of chemical oxygen demand from domestic wastewater using moving bed biofilm reactor
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Municipal wastewater sources are becoming increasingly important for reuse, for irrigation purposes, so they must be treated to meet environmentally friendly local or global standards. The aim of this study is to establish, calibrate, and validate a model for predicting chemical oxygen demand for the pilot plant of mobile biofilm reactors operating from municipal wastewater in Maaymyrh located in Hilla city Using the approach of dimensional analysis. The approach of Buckingham's theorem was used to derive a model of dimensional analysis design for the forecast of (COD) in the pilot plant. The effluent concentration (COD) It has been derived as a result of the influential concentration of (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), volume of pilot plant

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Publication Date
Sat May 08 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Vertical Accuracy of Digital Elevation Models Based on Differential Global Positioning System
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The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) has been known as a quantitative description of the surface of the Earth, which provides essential information about the terrain. DEMs are significant information sources for a number of practical applications that need surface elevation data. The open-source DEM datasets, such as the Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) usually have approximately low accuracy and coarser resolution. The errors in many datasets of DEMs have already been generally examined for their importance, where their quality could be affected within different aspects, including the types of sensors, algor

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-turath University College
A Comparison of Traditional and Optimized Multiple Grey Regression Models with Water Data Application
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Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "m

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Elastic transverse electron scattering form factors of 11Li exotic nucleus
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        The elastic transverse electron scattering form factors have been studied for the 11Li   nucleus using the Two- Frequency Shell Model (TFSM) approach. The single-particle wave functions of harmonic-oscillator (HO) potential are used with two different oscillator parameters bcore and bhalo. According to this model, the core nucleons of 9Li nucleus are assumed to move in the model space of spsdpf. The outer halo (2-neutron) in 11Li is assumed to move in the pure 1p1/2, 1d5/2, 2s1/2 orbit. The shell model calculations are carried ou

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 18 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics
A MODIFIED FUZZY MULTI-OBJECTIVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING TO SOLVE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION PLANNING
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This paper develops a fuzzy multi-objective model for solving aggregate production planning problems that contain multiple products and multiple periods in uncertain environments. We seek to minimize total production cost and total labor cost. We adopted a new method that utilizes a Zimmermans approach to determine the tolerance and aspiration levels. The actual performance of an industrial company was used to prove the feasibility of the proposed model. The proposed model shows that the method is useful, generalizable, and can be applied to APP problems with other parameters.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Plasma Characteristics of the Earth's Ionosphere in F-layer
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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Sample Size on the Item Differential Functioning in the Context of Item Response Theory
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The current study examined the effect of different sample sizes to detect the Item differential functioning (DIF). The study has used three different sizes of the samples (300, 500, 1000), as well as to test a component of twenty polytomous items, where each item has five categories. They were used Graded Response Model as a single polytomous item response theory model to estimate items and individuals’ parameters. The study has used the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) way to detect (DIF) through each case for the different samples. The results of the study showed the inverse relationship between the sample size and the number of items, which showed a differential performer.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Pulse Profile Rule in Laser Heating of Opaque Targets in Air
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A theoretical model is developed to determine time evolution of temperature at the surface of an opaque target placed in air for cases characterized by the formation of laser supported absorption waves (LSAW) plasmas. The model takes into account the power temporal variation throughout an incident laser pulse, (i.e. pulse shape, or simply: pulse profile).
Three proposed profiles are employed and results are compared with the square pulse approximation of a constant power.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Mathematical Modelling of Gene Regulatory Networks
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    This research includes the use of an artificial intelligence algorithm, which is one of the algorithms of biological systems which is the algorithm of genetic regulatory networks (GRNs), which is a dynamic system for a group of variables representing space within time. To construct this biological system, we use (ODEs) and to analyze the stationarity of the model we use Euler's method. And through the factors that affect the process of gene expression in terms of inhibition and activation of the transcription process on DNA, we will use TF transcription factors. The current research aims to use the latest methods of the artificial intelligence algorithm. To apply Gene Regulation Networks (GRNs), we used a progr

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
New Operational Matrices of Seventh Degree Orthonormal Bernstein Polynomials
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Based on analyzing the properties of Bernstein polynomials, the extended orthonormal Bernstein polynomials, defined on the interval [0, 1] for n=7 is achieved. Another method for computing operational matrices of derivative and integration D_b and R_(n+1)^B respectively is presented. Also the result of the proposed method is compared with true answers to show the convergence and advantages of the new method.

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