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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 29 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
A Smartphone -Based Model for Human Activity Recognition
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Activity recognition (AR) is a new interesting and challenging research area with many applications (e.g. healthcare, security, and event detection). Basically, activity recognition (e.g. identifying user’s physical activity) is more likely to be considered as a classification problem. In this paper, a combination of 7 classification methods is employed and experimented on accelerometer data collected via smartphones, and compared for best performance. The dataset is collected from 59 individuals who performed 6 different activities (i.e. walk, jog, sit, stand, upstairs, and downstairs). The total number of dataset instances is 5418 with 46 labeled features. The results show that the proposed method of ensemble boost-based classif

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Migration Effect on an Eco-toxicant Model
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This paper proposes and studies an ecotoxicant system with Lotka-Volterra functional response for predation including prey protective region. The equilibrium points and the stability of this model have been investigated analytically both locally and globally. Finally, numerical simulations and graphical representations have been utilized to support our analytical findings

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Use of Gamma Ray Log Data to Compute and Study the Deposition of Shale Volume of Mishrif Formation in Middle and Southern Parts of Iraq
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The shale volume is one of the most important properties that can be computed depending on gamma ray log. The shale volume of Mishrif Formation (carbonate formation from middle Cenomanian- early Turonian) was studied for the regional area of the middle and southern parts of Iraq. The gamma ray log data from seventeen  wells ( Kf-3,Kf-4, Ad-1,Ad -2,Dh-1, Bu-47, Ns-2, Ns-4, Am-1,Am-2,Hf-2,Hf-115,Mj-3,Mj-15, Su-7,Wq-15 and  Lu-7) distributed in the study area were used to compute the shale volume of Mishrif Formation. From the available data of the considered wells, a regional isopach map of Mishrif Formation was obtained. The isopach map indicates that the maximum thickness of Mishrif Formation is located at the eastern part of t

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Comparative Permeability Estimation Method and Identification of Rock Types using Cluster Analysis from Well Logs and Core Analysis Data in Tertiary Carbonate Reservoir-Khabaz Oil Field
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Characterization of the heterogonous reservoir is complex representation and evaluation of petrophysical properties and application of the relationships between porosity-permeability within the framework of hydraulic flow units is used to estimate permeability in un-cored wells. Techniques of flow unit or hydraulic flow unit (HFU) divided the reservoir into zones laterally and vertically which can be managed and control fluid flow within flow unit and considerably is entirely different with other flow units through reservoir. Each flow unit can be distinguished by applying the relationships of flow zone indicator (FZI) method. Supporting the relationship between porosity and permeability by using flow zone indictor is ca

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 24 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Differential Equations
The Impact of Media Coverage and Curfew on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Model: Stability and Bifurcation
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In this study, the spreading of the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is formulated mathematically. The objective of this study is to stop or slow the spread of COVID-19. In fact, to stop the spread of COVID-19, the vaccine of the disease is needed. However, in the absence of the vaccine, people must have to obey curfew and social distancing and follow the media alert coverage rule. In order to maintain these alternative factors, we must obey the modeling rule. Therefore, the impact of curfew, media alert coverage, and social distance between the individuals on the outbreak of disease is considered. Five ordinary differential equations of the first-order are used to represent the model. The solution properties of the system ar

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Trends in Contemporary Ceramic Art and the Overlapping of Stylistic Concepts (Installation Art and Assemblage as a Model)
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Contemporary arts have achieved, in accordance with the transition of concepts, a new logic in presentation and expression in general, and specifically in the field of ceramic art. The shift towards the logic of rejection and subversion of prevailing methods, which have been almost a constant foundation for a long period, has directly influenced the direction of visual arts in the contemporary world.
The growth and cultural transformations that the world has witnessed after the two World Wars have produced cognitive shifts based on strategies that diverge from the dominant culture. These approaches vary according to existential needs, as the language of art has become conceptual and a medium for contemporary culture with its rapid an

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Chaotic behaviour of the Rossler model and its analysis by using bifurcations of limit cycles and chaotic attractors
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The behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Optimizing Water Injection Performance by Using Sector Modeling of the Mishrif Formation in West Qurna-1 Oil Field, Southern Iraq
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The regular job of a reservoir engineer is to put a development plan to increase hydrocarbon production as possible and within economic and technical considerations. The development strategy for the giant reservoir is a complex and challenging task through the decision-making analysis process. Due to the limited surface water treatment facility, the reservoir management team focuses on minimizing water cut as low as possible by check the flow of formation and injected water movement through the Mishrif reservoir. In this research, a representative sector was used to make the review of water injection configuration, which is considered an efficient tool to make study in a particular area of the entire field when compared with the ful

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Design of Optimal Control for the In-host Tuberculosis Fractional Model
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     In this article, we investigate a mathematical fractional model of tuberculosis that takes into account vaccination as a possible way to treat the disease. We use an in-host tuberculosis fractional model that shows how Macrophages and Mycobacterium tuberculosis interact to knowledge of how vaccination treatments affect macrophages that have not been infected. The existence of optimal control is proven. The Hamiltonian function and the maximum principle of the Pontryagin are used to describe the optimal control. In addition, we use the theory of optimal control to develop an algorithm that leads to choosing the best vaccination plan. The best numerical solutions have been discovered using the forward and backward fractional Euler

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Educational Program Based on the (Guttmann) Model for Developing Awareness and Emotional Experience among University Students
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Abstract

The aim of the research is to identify the level of awareness and emotional experience among university students and to identify the effect of the educational program based on (Guttmann) model for developing awareness and emotional experience among university students by verifying the validity of the following zero hypotheses: 1) There are no statistically significant differences in the development of awareness and emotional experience among university students at the level of (0.05) between the mean scores of the experimental group in the pre and post-tests. 2) There are no statistically significant differences in the development of awareness and emotional experience among university students at the lev

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