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ijs-802
Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Performance evaluation of vocational and administrative institutions in the media using the bench-marking of new media: analytical study in the Journal of time
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Provides the style of benchmarking the best possible use whenevaluating the performance and evaluation, as well as improved performance,due to its consistency with the principles of good evaluation of theperformance, an extension of the completion of several functions of the timeand cost less, thereby increasing the efficiency of the management of theinstitutions, especially institutions, the media, as it became public the future ofthe message sender to the same time Zaorosaúl new media is challenging thetraditional media of what distinguishes this new interactive media and mass ledto this transition . However, the media Aljdidhoosaúl traditional mediacontinue to coexist and reinforce each Menhmaalakhr, for his wealth offreedom of opin

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of time management on the performance of the functional business: Survey study at Al Salam General Company for Communications and Information Technology
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The aim of the research is to know the level of time management application and its impact on the performance of the job, a survey search in the general company for communication and information technology and provide recommendations that help employees to optimize the use of time and improve performance, which is an important element in controlling the various functions of the company. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the questionnaire was based on two main variables and distributed to a random sample of (44) employees in the company out of (308) employees, thus the proportion of the sample (14%). After collecting the samples from the sample, there are (6) incomplete forms that have been retri

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Publication Date
Mon May 28 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
3D Geological Model For Khasib, Tanuma, and Sa'di formations of Halfaya Oil Field in Missan Governorate-Southern Iraq
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     A geological model is a spatial representation of the distribution of sediments and rocks in the subsurface. Where this study on Halfaya oil field; it is located in Missan governorate, 35 km southeast of the city of Amara. It is one of the main  fields in Iraq because it is production high oil. This model contains the structure, and petrophysical properties (porosity,  water saturation) in three directions. To build 3D geological models of petroleum reservoirs. Khasib, Tanuma, and Sa’di formations in Halfaya oil field have been divided into many layers depending on petrophysical properties and facies. 

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Dynamics and Analysis of Stage-Structured Predator-Prey Model Involving Disease and Refuge in Prey Population
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Abstract<p>Start your abstract here the objective of this paper is to study the dynamical behaviour of an eco-epidemiological system. A prey-predator model involving infectious disease with refuge for prey population only, the (SI_) infectious disease is transmitted directly, within the prey species from external sources of the environment as well as, through direct contact between susceptible and infected individuals. Linear type of incidence rate is used to describe the transmission of infectious disease. While Holling type II of functional responses are adopted to describe the predation process of the susceptible and infected predator respectively. This model is represented mathematically by </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 08 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Interactive Mobile Technologies (ijim)
Implementation of RWP and Gauss Markov Mobility Model for Multi-UAV Networks in Search and Rescue Environment
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Future generations of wireless networks are expected to heavily rely on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). UAV networks have extraordinary features like high mobility, frequent topology change, tolerance to link failure, and extending the coverage area by adding external UAVs. UAV network provides several advantages for civilian, commercial, search and rescue applications. A realistic mobility model must be used to assess the dependability and effectiveness of UAV protocols and algorithms.  In this research paper, the performance of the Gauss Markov (GM) and Random Waypoint (RWP) mobility models in multi-UAV networks for a search and rescue scenario is analyzed and evaluated. Additionally, the two mobility models GM and RWP are descr

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Evaluating Educational Programs in Combating Indecent Behaviors Among University Students Using Structural Equation Modeling (Field study: Northern Border University)
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The study aimed to evaluate educational programs efficiency in applying the best educational practices to educate students from the dangers of indecent behaviors, in line with higher education policy and the appropriateness of educational program dimensions to spread awareness among students to not fall into the indecent behaviors clutches. The study adopted the inductive exploratory approach through structural equation modeling and the descriptive analysis of the collected data from randomly selected sample (n=385) from educational academics at Northern Border University in the Saudi Arabia using a specially designed survey tool to meet study purposes to evaluate dimensions of teaching methods, evaluation tools, training courses, course

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Advanced Geostatistical Techniques for Building 3D Geological Modeling: A Case Study from Cretaceous Reservoir in Bai Hassan Oil Field
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A 3D Geological model was generated using an advanced geostatistical method for the Cretaceous reservoir in the Bai Hassan oil field. In this study, a 3D geological model was built based on data from four wells for the petrophysical property distribution of permeability, porosity, water saturation, and NTG by using Petrel 2021 software. The geological model was divided into a structural model and a property model. The geological structures of the cretaceous reservoir in the Bai Hassan oil field represent elongated anticline folds with two faults, which had been clarified in the 3D Structural model. Thirteen formations represent the Cretaceous reservoir which includes (Shiranish, Mashurah, U.kometan, Kometan Shale, L. Kometan, Gulnen

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Testosterone Enanthate Modeling of Polycystic Ovary on Liver Irs-2 mRNA Expression in Rats: A Brief Report
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There are many animal models for polycystic ovary (PCO); using exogenous testosterone enanthate is one of the methods of induction of these models. However, induction of insulin resistance should also be studied in the modeling technics. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the expression of insulin receptor substrate (Irs)-2 mRNA in the liver tissue of rat PCO model. Nineteen Wistar rats were divided into three groups; (1) PCO modeling group (N =7) received daily 1.0 mg/100g testosterone enanthate solved in olive oil along with free access dextrose water 5%, (2) vehicle group (N =6), which handled like the PCO group, but did not receive testosterone enanthate, (3) control group (N =6) with standard care. Al

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Finite Element Modeling of One-Way Recycled Aggregate Concrete Slabs Strengthened using Near-Surface Mounted CFRPs under Repeated Loading
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This study offers numerical simulation results using the ABAQUS/CAE version 2019 finite element computer application to examine the performance, and residual strength of eight recycle aggregate RC one-way slabs. Six strengthened by NSM CFRP plates were presented to study the impact of several parameters on their structural behavior. The experimental results of four selected slabs under monotonic load, plus one slab under repeated load, were validated numerically. Then the numerical analysis was extended to different parameters investigation, such as the impact of added CFRP length on ultimate load capacity and load-deflection response and the impact of concrete compressive strength value on the structural performance of

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
Wasit Journal For Pure Sciences
Suitable Methods for Solving COVID-19 Model in Iraq
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Because the Coronavirus epidemic spread in Iraq, the COVID-19 epidemic of people quarantined due to infection is our application in this work. The numerical simulation methods used in this research are more suitable than other analytical and numerical methods because they solve random systems. Since the Covid-19 epidemic system has random variables coefficients, these methods are used. Suitable numerical simulation methods have been applied to solve the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq. The analytical results of the Variation iteration method (VIM) are executed to compare the results. One numerical method which is the Finite difference method (FD) has been used to solve the Coronavirus model and for comparison purposes. The numerical simulat

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