Preferred Language
Articles
/
ijs-802
Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
...Show More Authors

Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

Scopus Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Intelligence framework dust forecasting using regression algorithms models
...Show More Authors

<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Performance Evaluation of Al-Karkh Water Treatment Plant Using Model-driven and Data-Driven Models
...Show More Authors
Abstract<p>There is a great operational risk to control the day-to-day management in water treatment plants, so water companies are looking for solutions to predict how the treatment processes may be improved due to the increased pressure to remain competitive. This study focused on the mathematical modeling of water treatment processes with the primary motivation to provide tools that can be used to predict the performance of the treatment to enable better control of uncertainty and risk. This research included choosing the most important variables affecting quality standards using the correlation test. According to this test, it was found that the important parameters of raw water: Total Hardn</p> ... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Mar 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Forecasting in international logos' design styles
...Show More Authors

Forecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria
...Show More Authors

Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an u

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Foreign Series in the Kurdish Satellite Channels and Their Role in the Development of Awareness among Young People in the Kurdistan Region (Korean Series as a Model) (A Field Study on a Sample of Students of the Institute of Fine Arts in the City of Sulay
...Show More Authors

The dubbing process for the Foreign Dramas by the Kurdish language became a serious phenomenon in the Kurdish satellite TV, especially in the past few years. It attracted a wide audience, especially young adolescents. And prepared by some breakthrough hostile to Kurdish culture and value coordinated by others remedy for the structural gaps and lapses have, as a result of climate which is brought into existence globalization and secretions variety dimensional, saturated value and cognitive effects bearing a strong identity of its elements. From here, the problem of this research is the ambiguity of their role in a series of developmental processes Kurdish awareness of young people and the extent of the impact that caused it.

This

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
2017 11th Asian Control Conference (ascc)
ESO-based repetitive control for rejecting periodic and aperiodic disturbances in piezoelectric actuators
...Show More Authors

This paper presents the Extended State Observer (ESO) based repetitive control (RC) for piezoelectric actuator (PEA) based nano-positioning systems. The system stability is proved using Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs), which guarantees the asymptotic stability of the system. The ESObased RC used in this paper has the ability to eliminate periodic disturbances, aperiodic disturbances and model uncertainties. Moreover, ESO can be tuned using only two parameters and the model free approach of ESO-based RC, makes it an ideal solution to overcome the challenges of nano-positioning system control. Different types of periodic and aperiodic disturbances are used in simulation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. The comparison studi

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (5)
Crossref (4)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Periodic Solutions of the Forest Pest System Via Hopf Bifurcation and Averaging Theory
...Show More Authors

    This work aims to analyse the dynamic behaviours of the forest pest system. We confirm the forest pest system in plane for limit cycles bifurcating existence from a Hopf bifurcation under certain conditions by using the first Lyapunov coefficient and the second-order of averaging theory. It is shown that all stationary points in this system have Hopf bifurcation points and provide an estimation of the bifurcating limit cycles.

View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (2)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Efficiency Measurement Model for Postgraduate Programs and Undergraduate Programs by Using Data Envelopment Analysis
...Show More Authors

Measuring the efficiency of postgraduate and undergraduate programs is one of the essential elements in educational process. In this study, colleges of Baghdad University and data for the academic year (2011-2012) have been chosen to measure the relative efficiencies of postgraduate and undergraduate programs in terms of their inputs and outputs. A relevant method to conduct the analysis of this data is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The effect of academic staff to the number of enrolled and alumni students to the postgraduate and undergraduate programs are the main focus of the study.

 

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jul 29 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Factors Affecting Application Launch Time with Android OS
...Show More Authors

Android OS is developing very fast, and because of being an open source OS, it is vulnerable to many problems that are manifested to users directly or indirectly. Poor application launch time is one of these problems. In this paper, a set of sixteen experiments is established to distinguish the factors that have the most evident effects on application launch time in Android mobiles. These factors are application, launch and kill, events, and storage. Mann Kendall (MK) test, one way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Design of Experiment (DOE) are used to prove the influence of factors statistically. As a result of the experiments, the application factor, especially the third party applications level, has the most prominent effects on appl

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (2)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Apr 23 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Influence Activation Function in Approximate Periodic Functions Using Neural Networks
...Show More Authors

The aim of this paper is to design fast neural networks to approximate periodic functions, that is, design a fully connected networks contains links between all nodes in adjacent layers which can speed up the approximation times, reduce approximation failures, and increase possibility of obtaining the globally optimal approximation. We training suggested network by Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm then speeding suggested networks by choosing most activation function (transfer function) which having a very fast convergence rate for reasonable size networks.             In all algorithms, the gradient of the performance function (energy function) is used to determine how to

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF