This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
In this study, we made a comparison between LASSO & SCAD methods, which are two special methods for dealing with models in partial quantile regression. (Nadaraya & Watson Kernel) was used to estimate the non-parametric part ;in addition, the rule of thumb method was used to estimate the smoothing bandwidth (h). Penalty methods proved to be efficient in estimating the regression coefficients, but the SCAD method according to the mean squared error criterion (MSE) was the best after estimating the missing data using the mean imputation method
The elections of the Council of Representatives in Iraq are one of the manifestations of political participation, which makes it attracts the attention of researchers. Where Iraq witnessed in 2005 important political events in the Iraqi arena, a pluralist parliamentary elections or elections in Iraq by direct free election on January 30, the first almost half a century ago. On November 15 of the same year, Iraq adopted a permanent constitution for the country through a popular referendum.
A chemical study was carried out to evaluate the efficiency of the liver enzyme concertation and uric acid level and its antagonists in the serum of the professors exposed to chemicals in the laboratories of the University of Samarra and their comparison with the healthy people. The research included 25 samples of the exposed professors and 20 samples as a group of officers.
The results of the current study showed a significant increase in the level of AST, ALT in the serum of professors exposed to chemicals compared to healthy people. The results showed no significant increase in
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This research attempt to explain the essential aspects of one important model in management of Bank risks , that is (stress testing) , which increase the concentrate on it resulting the negative affects of Global financial crisis that it accuar in 2008 to study the application possibilities in iraqian banks to enhancing the safety and financial soundness Becuase the classical tools in Risk management don’t give clear image on Banks ability in facing risks, hence the Basel committee on Banking supervision focusing in agreement of Basel 2,3 on stress testing when it doing the internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) .
To achieving the reseach obje
... Show MoreIn this paper, Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the existence of possible deterministic and stochastic climatic trends in (Baghdad,Basrah,Mosul,Al-Qaim) stations. The statistical test was applied to annual monthly mean of temperatures for the period (19932009). The values of S-statistic were (62, 44, 52, 64) by comparing these values with the table of null probability values for S we get a probability of (0.002, 0.026, 0.010, 0.002) this result is less than α for the 95% confidence level (α = 0.05) indicating a significant result at this level of confidence. Concluded that an increasing trend in concentration is present at the 95% confidence level and the variance of the S-statistic is calculated and it is com
... Show MoreSmoking has multiple effects on sex hormone , some of which are associated with important clinical implication .The present study was undertaken to investigate the biochemical changes of sex hormones associated with long standing cigarette smoking in 40 heavy smokers comparing with non- smoker and to correlate it with BMI for each .The sex hormones levels were determined by RIA technique . Atomic absorption technique was used to measure the zinc levels. The serum testosterone and estrogen levels of non – smoker group were 17.775ng\ml and 38.65ng\ml at p< 0.05, respectively .While the serum testosterone and estrogen levels of smoker group were 17.615n
... Show MoreThe Developing economies of countries have witnessed essential changes to words the development of tourism industry in the 21st century . in addition to adopting same of policies and strategies to grow up with the tourism sector to make it one of the important economic sector to compete the tourist cal developments in the wear .
As for the tourism sector in Iraq ,it's still afresh one , has many of elements which can be in vested ,needs a wide strategies of tourist cal in statutes and variety completive services and change of success for the locale and forgin investor ,the essential aim after this research is to prompt the national economic through the tourism industry and making concisen
... Show MoreBunium is one of the interested genus that grow in different region of Iraq, it is within the family Umbelliferae (Apiaceae), and the species within this family have a considerable fruit characteristics. The species that were chosen in this study are: B. brachyactis (Post) H. Wolff, B. caroides (Boiss.) Hausskn. Ex Bornm., B. chaerophylloides (Regel& Schmalh.) Drude, B. rectangulum Boiss. & Hausskn., B. verruculosum C.C.Towns. and B. avromanum (Boiss.& Hausskn) Drude., the study found that the fruits of these species have 5 protrusions different in size but all have the same number of vittae, but some are semiler in size and some are not, the number of vascular element are varied between these species, anatomical charact
... Show MoreGeotechnical characterization of the sites has been investigated with the collection of borehole data from different sources. Using the data, grain size distribution curves have been developed to understand the particle size distribution of the alluvium present. These curves were further used for preliminary assessment of liquefiable areas. From geotechnical characterization, it has been observed that the soil profile in the two sites is dominated by sand and silty sand.Seed and Idriss (1971) approachhas been usedevaluatethe liquefaction potentialbydeterminationof the relation between the maximum ground acceleration (a max/g) valuesdue to an earthquake and the relative density of a sand deposit in the field. The results reveal that
... Show MoreThis research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a
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