This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
This research represents outcrops of rocks at Cliffs of Tigris river ( Terraces ), most are Conglomerate, Sandstone, Siltstone and Clay stone. The research covers several aspects ; it includes a collection of field information from unstable rock slopes at (6) stations representing all the rock failure types that happened or likely to happen . In each station rock slopes are completely surveyed ; also the rocks are described in an engineering way and a complete discontinuity survey is carried out according to Anon (1972,1977) and their relationship with the rock failure is established. The field study shows that rock failures include toppling (mostly insecondary type ), rock fall. Point load test shows t
... Show MoreThe field experiment was conducted with the aim of developing and testing an automatic sprayer for agricultural spray experiments and studying the effect of spray pressure, spray speed and spray height on the spraying process. The effects of the major spraying factors (pressure, speed, and height) on the spraying performance of the automatic sprayer were studied. This study included several traits: First - the drop sizes - Second - the penetration of the spray into the vegetation cover - Third, the spray wasted. The results showed: - First: - Increase in coverage percentage when using the first speed, 2 km / h, which amounted to 26.85%. An increment in the spraying penetration of the vegetation cover was observed at the second speed
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Measurement of radon concentration level was carried out in 40 houses in Al – Najaf city during summer season of 2012. Long term measurement of indoor of old building radon concentrations have been taken, using a previously calibrated passive diffusion dosimeters containing CR – 39 solid state nuclear track detectors which are very sensitive for alpha particles. The measurement of the indoor radon concentration obtained in summer in these regions ranged from 11.654±4.216 Bq.m-3 to 53.610±8.777 Bq.m-3. The results were within universally permitted levels. |
The climate parameters annual rainfall and average mean temperature are investigated from 2000 to 2019 for Kut, Hilla and Iskandaryia. Evidence of climate change is noticed by decreasing the mean annual rainfall and relative humidity with an increase in the annual mean temperature. The climate water balance has been calculated. Due to high temperature, increased evaporation, and low precipitation rates, there was a large water deficit. The total water surplus in the Kut area is 32.86 mm from November to February, and in Hilla and Iskandaryia is 20.4 and 27.8 mm from December to February, respectively. The climate classification for the three stations was semi-dry to dry climates. The region has a significant water deficit of u
... Show MoreThe objective of this work was to study the effect of oral administration of Cyperus esculentus (CE) and its alcoholic extract on sperm function parameters in prepubertal mice as a model for human .The animals were divided into three groups each contains 6 animals .Group 1 was treated with 150 mg/ kg body weight /day of crude CE, group 2 was treated with same dose of alcohol extract of CE and group 3 regarded as control throughout six weeks period. The results showed a significant (p> 0.05) increase in the mean of sperm concentration ,sperm motility percent and progressive sperm motility between treated groups and control . There was no differences among groups in the mean of sperm normal morphology and sperm viability . No significa
... Show MoreFuture generations of wireless networks are expected to heavily rely on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). UAV networks have extraordinary features like high mobility, frequent topology change, tolerance to link failure, and extending the coverage area by adding external UAVs. UAV network provides several advantages for civilian, commercial, search and rescue applications. A realistic mobility model must be used to assess the dependability and effectiveness of UAV protocols and algorithms. In this research paper, the performance of the Gauss Markov (GM) and Random Waypoint (RWP) mobility models in multi-UAV networks for a search and rescue scenario is analyzed and evaluated. Additionally, the two mobility models GM and RWP are descr
... Show MoreThe research is summarized in the construction of a mathematical model using the most common methods in the science of Operations Research, which are the models of transportation and linear programming to find the best solution to the problem of the high cost of hajj in Iraq, and this is done by reaching the optimum number of pilgrims traveling through both land ports and the number Ideal for passengers traveling through airports by Iraqi Airways, instead of relying on the personal experience of the decision-maker in Hajj and Umrah Authority by identifying the best port for pilgrim's travel, which can tolerate right or wrong, has been based on scientific methods of Operations Research, the researcher built two mathematical models
... Show MoreA computational investigation is carried out in the field of charged particle optics with the aid of the numerical analysis methods. The work is concerned with the design of symmetrical double pole piece magnetic lens. The axial magnetic flux density distribution is determined by using exponential model, from which the paraxial-ray equation is solved to obtain the trajectory of particles that satisfy the suggested exponential model. From the knowledge of the first and second derivatives of axial potential distribution, the optical properties such as the focal length and aberration coefficients (radial distortion coefficient and spiral distortion coefficient) are determined. Finally, the pole piece profiles capable of pr
... Show MoreIn this paper, a mathematical model was built for the supply chain to reduce production, inventory, and transportation in Baghdad Company for Soft Drink. The linear programming method was used to solve this mathematical model. We reduced the cost of production by reduced the daily work hours, the company do not need the overtime hours to work at the same levels of production, and the costs of storage in the company's warehouses and agents' stores have been reduced by making use of the stock correctly, which guarantees reducing costs and preserving products from damage. The units transferred from the company were equal to the units demanded by the agents. The company's mathematical model also achieved profits by (84,663,769) by re
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