This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
Abstract
Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
... Show MoreArtificial pancreas is simulated to handle Type I diabetic patients under intensive care by automatically controlling the insulin infusion rate. A Backstepping technique is used to apply the effect of PID controller to blood glucose level since there is no direct relation between insulin infusion (the manipulated variable) and glucose level in Bergman’s system model subjected to an oral glucose tolerance test by applying a meal translated into a disturbance. Backstepping technique is usually recommended to stabilize and control the states of Bergman's class of nonlinear systems. The results showed a very satisfactory behavior of glucose deviation to a sudden rise represented by the meal that increase the blood glucose
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A rapid growth has occurred for the act of plagiarism with the aid of Internet explosive growth wherein a massive volume of information offered with effortless use and access makes plagiarism the process of taking someone else’s work (represented by ideas, or even words) and representing it as other's own work easy to be performed. For ensuring originality, detecting plagiarism has been massively necessitated in various areas so that the people who aim to plagiarize ought to offer considerable effort for introducing works centered on their research.
In this paper, work has been proposed for improving the detection of textual plagiarism through proposing a model for can
... Show MoreIn this study, a new theoretical method for the estimation of absorption and fluorescence spectra is accomplished. These estimations were established following experimental measurements of absorption and fluorescence spectra for the solutions of fluorescein laser dye mixed with titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles
in distilled water. The used concentration of fluorescein dye was 1x10-5 M, whereas the masses of titanium dioxide nanoparticles were 0.0003g, 0.0005g, 0.001g and 0.002g. An absorption spectra improvement was observed upon raising the mass of TiO2 nanoparticles, which specifies that doping the fluorescein dye with TiO2 nanoparticles have an essential influence on the dye absorption spectra. On the other side, all fluorescen
Research aims to shed light on the concept of corporate failures , display and analysis the most distinctive models used to predicting corporate failure; with suggesting a model to reveal the probabilities of corporate failures which including internal and external financial and non-financial indicators, A tested is made for the research objectivity and its indicators weight and by a number of academics professionals experts, in addition to financial analysts and have concluded a set of conclusions , the most distinctive of them that failure is not considered a sudden phenomena for the company and its stakeholders , it is an Event passes through numerous stages; each have their symptoms that lead eve
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to measure the effect of Adey- Shire model in the achievement and critical thinking of first intermediate female students in mathematics. The researcher adopted the experimental method with a post-test, the research of sample consists of (60) female students, divided into two groups with (30) students in the experimental group, that studied with Adey- Shire model, and (30) students in the control group who studied in the usual way. The two groups are equivalent in many variables. The researcher makes two tests of multiple choices, the first one is an achievement test consists (30) items and another test was for a critical thinking test with (25) items. The statistical analysis make to both tests is made with s
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to design a proposed model for a document to insure the mistakes of the medical profession in estimating the compensation for medical errors. The medical profession is an honest profession aimed primarily at serving human and human beings. In this case, the doctor may be subject to error and error , And the research has adopted the descriptive approach and the research reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is no one to bear the responsibility of medical error, although the responsibility shared and the doctor contributes to them, doctors do not deal with patients according to their educational level and cultural and there are some doctors do not inform patients The absence of a document to insu
... Show MoreWith the increasing rates of cancer worldwide, a great deal of scientific discourse is devoted to arguments and statements about cancer and its causes. Scientists from different fields try to seize any available chance to warn people of the risk of consuming and exposing to carcinogens that have, unfortunately, become essential parts of modern life. The present paper attempts to investigate the proximization strategy through which scientists construct carcinogen risk to enhance people’s preventive actions against these carcinogens. The paper targets the construction which depends on producing the conflict between the values of the people themselves and the contrasting values assigned to carcinogens. To achieve this aim, Cap’s (2
... Show MoreSchizophrenia (SZ) is severe mental disorder and characterized by fundamental disturbances in thinking, perception and emotions. Immune deregulation has been postulated to be one of the mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. This study hypothesized that interleukins would have a link with schizophrenia patients. The serum IL-2 and IL-10 levels were examined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in schizophrenia patients (n=60) and healthy controls (n = 30). The results showed that serum IL-2 and IL-10 levels were significantly different among schizophrenia patients. The observations indicate a significant decrease (P < 0.05) in schizophrenic patients serum levels of IL-2 compared with healthy control. Whereas
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