This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
Background: Appreciation of the crucial role of risk factors in the development of coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most significant advances in the understanding of this important disease. Extensive epidemiological research has established cigarette smoking, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension as independent risk factors for CADObjective: To determine the prevalence of the 4 conventional risk factors(cigarette smoking, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension) among patients with CAD and to determine the correlation of Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score with the extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with unstable angina /non ST elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI).Methods: We
... Show MoreThe current study is designed to achieve the goal of early detection of heart disease because it is the main risk of death. Some biomarkers were measured as well as the percentage of the effect of certain risk factors in people with myocardial infarction and heart failure. The study included 40 serum samples from people with heart disease. The effectiveness of the creatine kinase (CK-MB), as well as its temporal and albumin effects, as well as sodium ions in people with myocardial infarction and heart failure, were compared with the control group. as shown below:
-The first group consisted of 25 blood samples from people with myocardial infarction and 15 serum samples from people with heart failure. Blood
... Show MoreBackground: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is an irreversible myocardial injury and necrosis caused by serious and long term ischemia. Fibrinogen is considered as
one of the probable risk factors of myocardial infarction.
Patients and methods: 1.8-mL venous blood specimen from 40 patients with MI and 50 control subjects was obtained and put it into tubes containing 0.2 mol/L trisodium citrate. Plasma fibrinogen level was determined by the method of Clauss (Diagnostic Stago, France).
Results The mean age of patients was (45.2 ± 6) years in patients with premature myocardial infarction and (45.06±5) years in the control group (p =0.07). There were no statistically significant relationships between the
Pot experiment was carried out at the College of Agriculture – Baghdad University during autumn season, 2007. Thirteen treatments were formulated to evaluate the effectiveness of four applications of Phosphorus (0, 60, 60×2 and 120 Kg P. h-1) and three applications of Zinc (0, 25×2 mg Zn. L-1 and 50 mg Zn. Kg soil-1) along with inoculating seeds of bean with strains mixture 889 and 1865 and non-inoculated treatment, on nodulation, yield and protein content in seeds (N%). The results showed that inoculated plants exceeded on non-inoculated one in all the studied characteristics. While, P and Zn, applications at the rate of 60×2 kg/ha and 25×2 mg/L respectively, significantly, increased, nodulation, yield, protein content in se
... Show MoreThe study involved 120 women, who were distributed into two groups of breast tumor patients (30 malignant and 30 benign) and a group of controls (60 women). The patients were referred to the Center for Early Detection of Breast Tumor at Al-Alwayia Hospital for Gynecology and Obstetrics (Baghdad) during the period June-December 2011. They were investigated for the frequency of ABO blood group phenotypes, menopausal status, oral contraceptive use, body mass index and family history of breast cancer or other cancers. The results demonstrated that 60.0% of malignant cases clustered after the age 50 years, while it was 20.0% in benign cases. Fifty percent of malignant breast tumor patients reached menopause, while in benign cases, the corresp
... Show MoreMany carbonate reservoirs in the world show a tilted in originally oil-water contact (OOWC) which requires a special consideration in the selection of the capillary pressure curves and an understanding of reservoir fluids distribution while initializing the reservoir simulation models.
An analytical model for predicting the capillary pressure across the interface that separates two immiscible fluids was derived from reservoir pressure transient analysis. The model reflected the entire interaction between the reservoir-aquifer fluids and rock properties measured under downhole reservoir conditions.
This model retained the natural coupling of oil reservoirs with the aquifer zone and treated them as an explicit-region composite system
Simulation Study
Abstract :
Robust statistics Known as, Resistance to mistakes resulting of the deviation of Check hypotheses of statistical properties ( Adjacent Unbiased , The Efficiency of data taken from a wide range of probability distributions follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions with different standard deviations.
power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. Measuring its total capacity as frequency function.
Estimation methods Share with
... Show Moremodel is derived, and the methodology is given in detail. The model is constructed depending on some measurement criteria, Akaike and Bayesian information criterion. For the new time series model, a new algorithm has been generated. The forecasting process, one and two steps ahead, is discussed in detail. Some exploratory data analysis is given in the beginning. The best model is selected based on some criteria; it is compared with some naïve models. The modified model is applied to a monthly chemical sales dataset (January 1992 to Dec 2019), where the dataset in this work has been downloaded from the United States of America census (www.census.gov). Ultimately, the forecasted sales