This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.
The research explain the analysis of finance investments through analyze the finance tables for commercial banks, by using the pointers to indicate the limits of economical benefit for these investments, and fix the negative deviations and as well positive, for the purpose of diagnostic the negative (disadvantage) and develop the advantage deviation, For the importance of finance investments in the development operation and economical growth, further to that the finance investments is represent one of the most activities in the commercial banks in which aim the adequate incomes as a result of the commercial banks act to receipt the banks deposits and then make it growth and develop through commercial advantage o
... Show MoreThis is a contribution to study the situation of a dwelling of previous case of kala- azar in the endemic area (AL-Mahmodiya/ AL-Rasheed district) about 25 km south of Baghdad. In order to assess the possible ecological causes of the incidence and the prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis, in one of the well-known foci of the disease in the central region of Iraq. It was found that the human dwelling position and ecological factors affect the infection with this disease.
In any natural area or water body, evapotranspiration is one of the important outcomes in the water balance equation. As a significant method and depending on monthly average temperature, estimating of potential Evapotranspiration depending on Thornthwaite method was adopted in this research review. Estimate and discuss evapotranspiration by using Thornthwaite method is the main objectives of this research review with considerable details as well as compute potential evapotranspiration based on climatologically data obtained in Iraq. Temperature - evapotranspiration relationship can be estimated between those two parameters to reduce cost and time and facilitate calculation of water balance in lakes, river, and h
... Show MoreIraq within the ranks of the fledgling communities characterized by a broad base of the population pyramid, because they pose the age group (under 15 years) of a large proportion of the community, as it exceeded the proportion (40%) during the years of research extended (1986-2010) Despite the relative decline in the rates fertility during that period, but the proportion of young people remained high, especially for groups of at least five years, amounting to about 14% in 2012, a little more than the proportion of what constitutes age group (5-9 above) years, where it was (13%) and this naturally predicts continuing population increases in coming decades, due to the entry of those numbers of individuals in the reproductive stage,
... Show Moren this paper, we formulate three mathematical models using spline functions, such as linear, quadratic and cubic functions to approximate the mathematical model for incoming water to some dams. We will implement this model on dams of both rivers; dams on the Tigris are Mosul and Amara while dams on the Euphrates are Hadetha and Al-Hindya.
Background: Preeclampsia (PE) is a major cause of maternal morbidity and mortality, complicating 3-14% of all pregnancies. Although the etiology remains unknown, placental hypoperfusion and diffuse endothelial cell injury are considered to be the central pathological process; many endocrinological changes have been linked to the etiology of preeclampsia including parathyroid hormone and calcium level. Objective: to compare serum parathyroid hormone and total serum calcium levels in mild and severe preeclampsia versus normal pregnancy. Patients and methods: Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) level and total serum calcium level were measured in thirty normotensive pregnant women and thirty women with mild preeclampsia and thi
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The process of soil classification in Iraq for industrial purposes is important topics that need to be extensive and specialized studies. In order for the advancement of reality service and industrial in our dear country, that a lot of scientific research touched upon the soil classification in the agricultural, commercial and other fields. No source and research can be found that touched upon the classification of land for industrial purposes directly. In this research specialized programs have been used such as geographic information system software The geographical information system permits the study of local distribution of phenomena, activities and the aims that can be determined in the loca
Facial recognition has been an active field of imaging science. With the recent progresses in computer vision development, it is extensively applied in various areas, especially in law enforcement and security. Human face is a viable biometric that could be effectively used in both identification and verification. Thus far, regardless of a facial model and relevant metrics employed, its main shortcoming is that it requires a facial image, against which comparison is made. Therefore, closed circuit televisions and a facial database are always needed in an operational system. For the last few decades, unfortunately, we have experienced an emergence of asymmetric warfare, where acts of terrorism are often committed in secluded area with no
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