This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
Background: Orthodontic tooth movement is characterized by tissue reactions, which consist of an inflammatoryresponse in periodontal ligament and followed by bone remodeling in the periodontium depending on the forces applied. These processes trigger the secretion of various proteins and enzymes into the saliva.The purpose of thi study was to evaluate the activity of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) in saliva during orthodontic tooth movement using different magnitude of continuous orthodontic forces.
Materials and Methods: Thirty orthodontic patients (12 males and 18 females) aged 17-23 years with class II division I malocclusion all requiring bilateral maxillary first premolar extractions were randomly divided into three groups according t
Nasiriyah oilfield is located in the southern part of Iraq. It represents one of the promising oilfields. Mishrif Formation is considered as the main oil-bearing carbonate reservoir in Nasiriyah oilfield, containing heavy oil (API 25o(. The study aimed to calculate and model the petrophysical properties and build a three dimensional geological model for Mishrif Formation, thus estimating the oil reserve accurately and detecting the optimum locations for hydrocarbon production.
Fourteen vertical oil wells were adopted for constructing the structural and petrophysical models. The available well logs data, including density, neutron, sonic, gamma ray, self-potential, caliper and resistivity logs were used to calculate the
... Show MoreOne of the main techniques to achieve phase behavior calculations of reservoir fluids is the equation of state. Soave - Redlich - Kwong equation of state can then be used to predict the phase behavior of the petroleum fluids by treating it as a multi-components system of pure and pseudo-components. The use of Soave – Redlich – Kwon equation of state is popular in the calculations of petroleum engineering therefore many researchers used it to perform phase behavior analysis for reservoir fluids (Wang and Orr (2000), Ertekin and Obut (2003), Hasan (2004) and Haghtalab (2011))
This paper presents a new flash model for reservoir fluids in gas – oil se
Entropy define as uncertainty measure has been transfared by using the cumulative distribution function and reliability function for the Burr type – xii. In the case of data which suffer from volatility to build a model the probability distribution on every failure of a sample after achieving limitations function, probabilistic distribution. Has been derived formula probability distribution of the new transfer application entropy on the probability distribution of continuous Burr Type-XII and tested a new function and found that it achieved the conditions function probability, been derived mean and function probabilistic aggregate in order to be approved in the generation of data for the purpose of implementation of simulation
... Show MoreA two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was
... Show MoreTo damp the low-frequency oscillations which occurred due to the disturbances in the electrical power system, the generators are equipped with Power System Stabilizer (PSS) that provide supplementary feedback stabilizing signals. The low-frequency oscillations in power system are classified as local mode oscillations, intra-area mode oscillation, and interarea mode oscillations. Double input multiband Power system stabilizers (PSSs) were used to damp out low-frequency oscillations in power system. Among dual-input PSSs, PSS4B offers superior transient performance. Power system simulator for engineering (PSS/E) software was adopted to test and evaluate the dynamic performance of PSS4B model on Iraqi national grid. The results showed
... Show MoreIn this paper, we introduced a mathematical model for Iraqi Airways Company about evaluating its objectives and strategies. First, we studied Iraqi Airways schedules with different departure cities for each airline path. Then, we applied some fuzzy integrals for determining the best airline path.
The traditional shortest path problem is mainly concerned with identifying the associated paths in the transportation network that represent the shortest distance between the source and the destination in the transportation network by finding either cost or distance. As for the problem of research under study it is to find the shortest optimal path of multi-objective (cost, distance and time) at the same time has been clarified through the application of a proposed practical model of the problem of multi-objective shortest path to solve the problem of the most important 25 commercial US cities by travel in the car or plane. The proposed model was also solved using the lexicographic method through package program Win-QSB 2.0 for operation
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