This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
The seismic method depends on the nature of the reflected waves from the interfaces between layers, which in turn depends on the density and velocity of the layer, and this is called acoustic impedance. The seismic sections of the East Abu-Amoud field that is located in Missan Province, south-eastern Iraq, were studied and interpreted for updating the structural picture of the major Mishrif Formation for the reservoir in the field. The Mishrif Formation is rich in petroleum in this area, with an area covering about 820 km2. The horizon was calibrated and defined on the seismic section with well logs data (well tops, check shot, sonic logs, and density logs) in the interp
... Show MoreThe present research is aimed to know the levels of geometrical thinking of college of education " Ibn Al Haitham students I second class" . The sample of the research consists of ( 50 ) male & female students , that were chosen randomly during the academic year 2002-2003 .
To verify the aim of the study , the researcher reviewed the previous cognitive literature , and limited his study to the ( comprehending analytic , ordinal , and inferential ) levels of geometrical thinking .
He constructed a test that was consisted of ( 25 ) items . The test &nb
... Show MoreThe theory of probabilistic programming may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, production and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable
... Show MoreAbstract
The population is sets of vocabulary common in character or characters and it’s study subject or research . statistically , this sets is called study population (or abridgement population ) such as set of person or trees of special kind of fruits or animals or product any country for any commodity through infinite temporal period term ... etc.
The population maybe finite if we can enclose the number of its members such as the students of finite school grade . and maybe infinite if we can not enclose the number of it is members such as stars or aquatic creatures in the sea . when we study any character for population the statistical data is concentrate by two metho
... Show MoreIn this paper, chaotic and periodic dynamics in a hybrid food chain system with Holling type IV and Lotka-Volterra responses are discussed. The system is observed to be dissipative. The global stability of the equilibrium points is analyzed using Routh-Hurwitz criterion and Lyapunov direct method. Chaos phenomena is characterized by attractors and bifurcation diagram. The effect of the controlling parameter of the model is investigated theoretically and numerically.
Abstract
The current research aims to reveal the extent to which all scoring rubrics data for the electronic work file conform to the partial estimation model according to the number of assumed dimensions. The study sample consisted of (356) female students. The study concluded that the list with the one-dimensional assumption is more appropriate than the multi-dimensional assumption, The current research recommends preparing unified correction rules for the different methods of performance evaluation in the basic courses. It also suggests the importance of conducting studies aimed at examining the appropriateness of different evaluation methods for models of response theory to the
... Show MoreBackground: Infection with Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) leads to activation of T-helper cells (Th-1 and Th-2) which are involved in the synthesis and release of different cytokines which may lead to endothelial dysfunction. Objectives: To evaluate the endothelial function in patients with acute toxoplasmosis. Methods: This case-control study involved 31 patients with toxoplasmosis aged 19 - 47 years matched with 20 healthy subjects. Anti-T. gondii antibody (IgG, IgM, IgA) was determined by direct antigen-antibody reaction. Interleukin-6(IL-6), endothelin-1 (ET-1) and human malondialdehyde (MDA) serum levels were measured. Results: IgM, IgG and IgA levels were high in the infected patients compared with controls (P < 0.01). Furthermore, IL-
... Show MoreBackground: Type two diabetic patients have higher risk of cardiovascular and periodontal disease. Furthermore, patients with more severe periodontal disease have higher incidence of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to assess the association between periodontal health status and the risk of vascular disease in type 2 diabetic patients. Materials and Methods: One hundred type 2 diabetes mellitus patients and fifty apparently healthy males were enrolled in this study. Oral examinations conducted were; plaque Index, calculus index, gingival index, probing pocket depth, and clinical attachment level. For the assessment of vascular risk, arterial stiffness index was used. Results: According to arterial stiffness index, type 2 diabetic p
... Show MoreThis study was designed to evaluate the effect of major surgery on thyroid hormones and thyrotropin in patient undergoing major lower abdominal surgery. The study included fifty patients scheduled for elective major lower abdominal surgery, the serum levels of T3, T4 and TSH were determined one day preoperatively, intraoperative, one day postoperatively, two days postoperatively, and rT3 was determined one day preoperatively, and one day postoperatively. We observed that the levels of (T3, T4, TSH) increased significantly (P<0.05) intraoperatively, one day postoperatively the levels of T3 and T4 reduced significantly (P<0.05), while TSH reduced not significantly (P>0.05), and two days postoperatively T4 and TSH returned to increase si
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