Oil price forecasting has captured the attention of both researchers and academics because of the unique characteristics of crude oil prices and how they have a big impact on a lot of different parts of the economic value of the product. As a result, most academics use a lot of different ways to predict the future. On the other hand, researchers have a hard time because crude oil prices are very unpredictable and can be affected by many different things. This study uses support vector regression (SVR) with technical indicators as a feature to improve the prediction of the monthly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of crude oil. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) measure how well the model is working. The RMSE was 1.5456, the MAE was 1.3219, and the MAPE was 1.9173 in the experiment. The results show that WTI crude oil prices are affected by technical indicators and get good performance that outperforms most other models that can be found.
A 3D velocity model was created by using stacking velocity of 9 seismic lines and average velocity of 6 wells drilled in Iraq. The model was achieved by creating a time model to 25 surfaces with an interval time between each two successive surfaces of about 100 msec. The summation time of all surfaces reached about 2400 msec, that was adopted according to West Kifl-1 well, which penetrated to a depth of 6000 m, representing the deepest well in the study area. The seismic lines and well data were converted to build a 3D cube time model and the velocity was spread on the model. The seismic inversion modeling of the elastic properties of the horizon and well data was applied to achieve a corrected veloci
... Show MoreThis paper deals with defining Burr-XII, and how to obtain its p.d.f., and CDF, since this distribution is one of failure distribution which is compound distribution from two failure models which are Gamma model and weibull model. Some equipment may have many important parts and the probability distributions representing which may be of different types, so found that Burr by its different compound formulas is the best model to be studied, and estimated its parameter to compute the mean time to failure rate. Here Burr-XII rather than other models is consider because it is used to model a wide variety of phenomena including crop prices, household income, option market price distributions, risk and travel time. It has two shape-parame
... Show MoreThis paper discusses reliability of the stress-strength model. The reliability functions ð‘…1 and ð‘…2 were obtained for a component which has an independent strength and is exposed to two and three stresses, respectively. We used the generalized inverted Kumaraswamy distribution GIKD with unknown shape parameter as well as known shape and scale parameters. The parameters were estimated from the stress- strength models, while the reliabilities ð‘…1, ð‘…2 were estimated by three methods, namely the Maximum Likelihood, Least Square, and Regression.
A numerical simulation study a comparison between the three estimators by mean square error is performed. It is found that best estimator between
... Show MoreObjective conditions for the possibility of punishment are legal or material facts –positive or negative that depart from the activity of the offender. The legislator comments on their subsequent verification on the formation of some crimes the possibility of.The application of punishment to the offender , but although they are facts of an object nature that approach and overlap with many systems and cases , they are distinguished by a certain subjectivity that differentiates them from each case that may seem similar or approach them. To clarify the ambiguity that may surround these conditions , Which may lead to confusion between them and what be similar to other cases due to the common effect that they have in common , which is the f
... Show MoreIn this work , we applied the nuclear shell model by using Modified Surface Delta Interaction ( MSDI ) to study the nuclear structure for Ti42-44 nuclei from the calculation of the energy level values and its total angular momentum . After comperation with the experiment values which found to be rather in good agreement and determined the total angular momentum values of energy levels which are not assigned experimently , as soon as , we certify some values that were not certained experimently .
In this research, the effect of changing the flood level of Al-Shuwaija marsh was studied using the geographic information systems, specifically the QGIS program, and the STRM digital elevation model with a spatial analysis accuracy of 28 meters, was used to study the marsh. The hydraulic factors that characterize the marsh and affecting on the flooding such as the ranks of the water channels feeding the marsh and the degree of slope and flat areas in it are studied. The area of immersion water, the mean depth, and the accumulated water volume are calculated for each immersion level, thereby, this study finds the safe immersion level for this marsh was determined.
This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components o
... Show MoreThe AlAdhaim Dam is located 133 kilometers northeast of Baghdad. It is a multipurpose dam and joints the Iraqi dam system in 2000. It has a storage capacity of 1.5 billion m3. The dam has an ogee spillway with a length of 562 m, a crest level of 131.5 m.a.m.s.l. and a maximum discharge capacity of 1150 m3/s at its maximum storage height of 143 m.a.m.s.l. This research aimed to investigate the hydrodynamics performance of the spillway and the stilling basin of AlAdhiam Dam by using numerical simulation models under gated situations. It was suggested to modify the dam capacity by increasing the dam's storage capacity by installing gates on the crest of the dam spillway. The FLUENT program was used to
... Show MoreSand production in unconsolidated reservoirs has become a cause of concern for production engineers. Issues with sand production include increased wellbore instability and surface subsidence, plugging of production liners, and potential damage to surface facilities. A field case in southeast Iraq was conducted to predict the critical drawdown pressures (CDDP) at which the well can produce without sanding. A stress and sanding onset models were developed for Zubair reservoir. The results show that sanding risk occurs when rock strength is less than 7,250 psi, and the ratio of shear modulus to the bulk compressibility is less than 0.8 1012 psi2. As the rock strength is increased, the sand free drawdown and depletion becomes larger. The CDDP
... Show MoreThere are several methods that are used to solve the traditional transportation problems whose units of supply, demand quantities, and cost transportation are known exactly. These methods obtain basic solution, and develop it to the best solution through a series of consecutive calculations to obtain the optimal solution.
The steps are more complex with fuzzy variables, so this paper presents the disadvantages of solutions of the traditional ways with existence of variables in the fuzzy form.
This paper also presents a comparison between the results that emerged after using different conversion ranking formulas to convert from fuzzy form to crisp form on the same numerical example with a full fuzz