Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagn

Oil price forecasting has captured the attention of both researchers and academics because of the unique characteristics of crude oil prices and how they have a big impact on a lot of different parts of the economic value of the product. As a result, most academics use a lot of different ways to predict the future. On the other hand, researchers have a hard time because crude oil prices are very unpredictable and can be affected by many different things. This study uses support vector regression (SVR) with technical indicators as a feature to improve the prediction of the monthly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of crude oil. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) measur

   In this work , we applied the nuclear shell model by using Modified Surface Delta Interaction ( MSDI ) to study the nuclear structure for Ti42-44 nuclei from the calculation of the energy level values and its total angular momentum .      After comperation with the experiment values which found to be rather in good agreement and determined the total angular momentum values of energy levels which are not assigned experimently , as soon as , we certify some values that were not certained experimently .  

Design sampling plan was and still one of most importance subjects because it give lowest cost  comparing with others, time live statistical distribution should be known to give best estimators for  parameters of sampling plan and get best sampling plan.

Research dell with design sampling plan when live time distribution follow Logistic distribution with () as location and shape parameters, using these information can help us getting (number of groups, sample size) associated with reject or accept the Lot

Experimental results for simulated data shows the least number of groups and sample size needs to reject or accept the Lot with certain probability of

In present work examined the oxidation desulfurization in batch system for model fuels with 2250 ppm sulfur content using air as the oxidant and ZnO/AC composite prepared by thermal co-precipitation method. Different factors were studied such as composite loading 1, 1.5 and 2.5 g, temperature 25 ^oC, 30 ^oC and 40 ^oC and reaction time 30, 45 and 60 minutes. The optimum condition is obtained by using Tauguchi experiential design for oxidation desulfurization of model fuel. the highest percent sulfur removal is about 33 at optimum conditions. The kinetic and effect of internal mass transfer were studied for oxidation desulfurization of model fuel, also an empirical kinetic model was calculated for model fuels

ABSTRACT

In this research been to use some of the semi-parametric methods the based on the different function penalty as well as the methods proposed by the researcher  because these methods work to estimate and variable selection of significant at once for single index model including (SCAD-NPLS method , the first proposal SCAD-MAVE method , the second proposal  ALASSO-MAVE method ) .As it has been using a method simulation time to compare between the semi-parametric estimation method studied , and various simulation experiments to identify the best method based on the comparison criteria (mean squares error(MSE) and average  mean squares error (AMSE)).

And the use

Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "m

المستخلص

يعد تقييم اداء العاملين احد اهم الركائز الاساسية التي يتوقف عليها نجاح أي منظمة تسعى بأن تتطور وتتميز بأنشطتها واداءها وبالأخص المنظمات التي لها خصوصية في عملها كالأجهزة الرقابية التي تعتمد في اداء انشطتها ومسؤولياتها على كفاءة مواردها البشرية, ومن هذا المنطلق يهدف هذا البحث الى تصميم انموذج ثلاثي المحاور (المؤهلات والقدرات، الاداء والانجاز، التعاون والالتزام الوظيفي) ثُماني المستويات

In this article we derive two reliability mathematical expressions of two kinds of s-out of -k stress-strength model systems; and . Both stress and strength are assumed to have an Inverse Lomax distribution with unknown shape parameters and a common known scale parameter. The increase and decrease in the real values of the two reliabilities are studied according to the increase and decrease in the distribution parameters. Two estimation methods are used to estimate the distribution parameters and the reliabilities, which are Maximum Likelihood and Regression. A comparison is made between the estimators based on a simulation study by the mean squared error criteria, which revealed that the maximum likelihood estimator works the best.

This Book is the second edition that intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate/ postgraduate course in mathematical statistics. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters. Chapter One introduces events and probability review. Chapter Two devotes to random variables in their two types: discrete and continuous with definitions of probability mass function, probability density function and cumulative distribution function as well. Chapter Three discusses mathematical expectation with its special types such as: moments, moment generating function and other related topics. Chapter Four deals with some special discrete distributions: (Discrete Uniform, Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, Geometric, Neg