The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The outbreak was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in January 2020 and a pandemic in March 2020. In this study, a complete statistical analysis for SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in entire Iraq, as well as for each governorate separately, is performed for the first time. The study covers a period that starts from the beginning of the pandemic, in the 24th of February 2020, until the 16th of July 2020. It was clear that, although the average number of the reported infection cases was low during February and March, the average infection rate (R0) was >1 (1.3- 2.1), indicating a high spreading rate. During April, when there was a complete lockdown, there was a slight decrease in the RO when the lockdown was lifted, the RO and the number of new cases started to increase rapidly until the 16th of July, when the average number of new cases for every 6 days reached 2281. The cumulative average number of new cases for every six days since the beginning of the pandemic in Iraq on 16 July was 598.4 ±862.4 (Mean± SD). The higher standard deviation than mean value (SD > mean) for most of the analyzes indicates that the official statistics are not reliable. This may be due to the need to conduct further studies as well as the presence of several cases that were not officially reported. In addition, the overall six-day average RO for entire Iraq was 1.4±0.5, with unstable values after the start of the pandemic and absence of monitoring at any time. On the other hand, this study reflects the variations in average RO, average new cases, average recovery rates, average death rates for every 6 days between the Iraqi provinces. Bagdad reported the highest average number of new cases; Babil and Salah aldin reported the highest RO values (2.8± 7.6, 2.5±7.7, respectively). Erbil and Kurkuk reported the highest average recovery rates (372.3± 1340.8, 158±433%, respectively). Babil and Dhiqar reported the highest average death rates (12.2± 63.3, 10.0± 25.8%, respectively), although Duhock did not record any deaths at the time of the study. The data require the attention of the Ministry of Health and Environment to fill in performance holes, as demonstrated by an out-of-control pandemic in Iraq.
We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreThree types of extracts ( aquatic, alcoholic, and oily ) were prepared from the fruits of coconuts, and a series of chemical tests were conducted in addition to the use of the FTIR equipment to determine the active locations in the prepared extracts. The results indicated the presence of active compounds (tannins, saponins, flavonoids, turbines and steroids) in the extracts prepared from the fruits of coconuts, also the antimicrobial capability of these extracts were tested on pathogenic bacteria isolated from wounds and burns infections cases. The results proved that the concentration 80 mg/ml of the aquatic extract is the minimum inhibitory concentration for the microbes: Proteus vulgaris and Pseudomonas fluorescence, while the
... Show MoreBACKGROUND: Clavicle fractures are common injuries in young active individuals, the mid third of the clavicle is most commonly fractured part(80% of clavicle fracture) OBJECTIVE: To compare the outcomes of operative and non operative management of displaced and or comminuted closed fracture of the mid third of clavicle in young adults PATIENTS AND METHODS: This prospective observational study of 24 patients of fracture of the mid third of the clavicle was conducted in Alkindy teaching hospital from July 2015 to January 2017 and divided into two groups; one managed by operative treatment with plate and screws and the other by non operative sling immobilization after taking the consent and the patients were seen at 2, 4, 6 weeks,3, 6, and 9 m
... Show MoreThis experiment was conducted to examine the effects of injected gibberellic acid GA3 in subcutaneous of hens neck and supplemental vitamin D3 to control basal diet on productive performance and egg shell thickness ,relative weight of egg shell of aged laying hens. Two hundred and seventy Lohmann Brown laying hens at 73 weeks of age were randomly assigned to three treatments groups. Each treatment consist of three replicates (30 hens / replicate). The treatments were : T1 control were injected subcutaneous with 0.2 ml / kg of body weight of ethanol: sesame oil solution, T2 and T3 were injected subcutaneous with 0.2 ml / kg of body weight of ethanol: sesame oil solution which contained 400 μg GA3/ kg of body weight /week during 8 weeks (tre
... Show MoreBackground: Bone mineral density (BMD) has been assessed using Dual-Energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). This procedure is considered to be of vital importance in assessing the general condition of individuals concerning their skeletal mineralization. BMD is measured according to the results of the DEXA examination of the vertebral column and pelvis. Although diabetes mellitus (D.M.)is known to affect BMD, the information regarding this relationship is not currently particularly clear. Objective: This study concentrates on the point that the assessment of BMD for the vertebral column is insuffi-cient to give a realistic and correct picture of the mineralization of the remaining part of the skeleton. Besides, this study elicited a gen
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Background: Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) is the most ‎commonly used mâ€aterial in denture construction. This material is ‎far from ideal in fulfilling the‎ mechanical requirements, like low impact and transverse strength and poor thermal conductivity are present in this material. The purpose of this study was to study the effect of addition a composite which include 1%wt silanized silicone dioxide nano fillers (SiO2) and 1wt% oxygen plasma treated polypropylene fiber (PP) on some properties of heat cured acrylic resin denture base material (PMMA). Materials and methods: One hundâ€red (100) prepared specimens were divided into five groups according to the tests, each group consisted of 20 specimens and t