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Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak by a Numerical Modelling
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Pandemic COVID-19 is a contagious disease affecting more than 200 countries, territories, and regions. Recently, Iraq is one of the countries that have immensely suffered from this outbreak. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is also prone to the disease. Until now, more than 23,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the region. Since the onset of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, based on epidemiological modelling, researchers have used various models to predict the future of the epidemic and the time of peak, yielding diverse numbers in different countries. This study aims to estimate the basic reproductive number [R0] for COVID-19 in KRI, using the standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemic model. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated and solved numerically by the 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The reproductive numbers R0 was estimated by the method of fitting the curves between the actual daily data and numerical solution by applying the least square method. For the analysis, data were taken for the duration of 165 days, from 1st of March to 12th August 2020, in a population of 5.2 million. It is concluded that the R0 value was fluctuating during the outbreak, with an average of 1.33, predicting that infection cases will reach their maximum value of around 540,000 on the 5th of November 2020. Then, the spread of the disease will die out since the number of susceptible people will decrease to about 3.2 million. While the number of removed individuals will reach approximately to 1.5 million.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The Impact of COVID-19 on Healthy Related Issues, A structured Review
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Coronavirus: (COVID-19) is a recently discovered viral disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus.

The majority of patients with corona-virus infections will have a mild-moderate respiratory disease that recovers without special care. Most often, the elderly, and others with chronic medical conditions such as asthma, coronary disease, respiratory illness, and malignancy are seriously ill.

    COVID-19 is spread mostly by salivary droplets or nasal secretions when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

    COVID-19 causes severe acute respiratory illness (SARS-COV-2). The first incidence was recorded in Wuhan, China, in 2019.  Since then it spreads leading to a pandemic.

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Publication Date
Wed May 08 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Mathematics And Computer Science
How does media coverage affect a COVID-19 pandemic model with direct and indirect transmission?
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In this paper, a compartmental differential epidemic model of COVID-19 pandemic transmission is constructed and analyzed that accounts for the effects of media coverage. The model can be categorized into eight distinct divisions: susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, quarantine class, infected individuals, isolated class, infectious material in the environment, media coverage, and recovered individuals. The qualitative analysis of the model indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one. Conversely, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is bigger than one. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Paradigm Shift Towards Federated Learning for COVID-19 Detection: A Survey
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     The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory syndrome with similar traits to common pneumonia. This major pandemic has affected nations both socially and economically, disturbing everyday life and urging the scientific community to develop solutions for the diagnosis and prevention of COVID-19. Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR) is the conventional approach used for detecting COVID-19. Nevertheless, the initial stage of the infection is less predictable in PCR tests, making early prediction challenging. A robust and alternative diagnostic method based on digital computerised technologies to support conventional methods would greatly help society. Therefore, this paper reviews recent research bas

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Immunological aspects of Alpha 1 Antitrypsin in COVID-19 infection among the Populace and Pregnant Women: Alpha 1 Antitrypsin and COVID-19
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Since the COVID-19 pandemic alarm was made by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-coronavirus (CoV) 2, several institutions and agencies have pursued to clarify the viral virulence and infectivity. The fast propagation of this virus leads to an unprecedented rise in the number of cases worldwide. COVID-19 virus is exceptionally contagious that spreads through droplets, respiratory secretions, and direct contact. The enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus has a specific envelop region called (S) region encoding (S protein) that specifically binds to the host cell receptor. Viral infection requires receptors' participation on the host cell membrane's surface, a  key- step for the viral invasion of susceptible cells.

Rec

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
COVID-19 Diagnosis Using Spectral and Statistical Analysis of Cough Recordings Based on the Combination of SVD and DWT
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Healthcare professionals routinely use audio signals, generated by the human body, to help diagnose disease or assess its progression. With new technologies, it is now possible to collect human-generated sounds, such as coughing. Audio-based machine learning technologies can be adopted for automatic analysis of collected data. Valuable and rich information can be obtained from the cough signal and extracting effective characteristics from a finite duration time interval that changes as a function of time. This article presents a proposed approach to the detection and diagnosis of COVID-19 through the processing of cough collected from patients suffering from the most common symptoms of this pandemic. The proposed method is based on adopt

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Initial Chest X-ray scoring in the prediction of COVID-19 patients’ outcome in the United Arab Emirates
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Background: The radiological scoring of severity and progression of lung abnormalities is of great value for clinicians to define the clinical management of COVID-19 patients.

Objectives: The purpose of this study is to implement the Brixia scoring tool to assess the pattern of lung involvement in patients with COVID-19 to help predict the severity of their clinical outcome, where the clinical outcome correlates to outpatient, inpatient and/or ICU admission.

Patients and Methods: We conducted a case series study at the Sheikh Khalifa Medical City Ajman (SKMCA), United Arab Emirates from 14 March to 30 October 2020. Patients’ medical records were reviewed and followed up f

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 16 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Clinical Laboratory Analysis
Hematological changes associated with COVID‐19 infection
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Abstract<sec><title>Background

The unresolved COVID‐19 pandemic considerably impacts the health services in Iraq and worldwide. Consecutive waves of mutated virus increased virus spread and further constrained health systems. Although molecular identification of the virus by polymerase chain reaction is the only recommended method in diagnosing COVID‐19 infection, radiological, biochemical, and hematological studies are substantially important in risk stratification, patient follow‐up, and outcome prediction.

Aim

This narrative review summarized the hematological changes including the blood indices, coagulative indicator

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Rawal Medical Journal
Obesity in COVID-19 patients is a complex interaction
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Objective: To assess role of obesity in Covid-19 patients on antibodies production, diabetes development, and treatment of this disease. Methodology: This observational study included 200 Covid-19 patients in privet centers from January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022. All patients had fasting blood sugars and anti-Covid-19 antibodies. Anthropometric parameters were measured in all participants. Results: The patients were divided into two groups according to body weight; normal body weight (50) and excess body weight (150). There was a significant difference between them regarding age. Diabetes mellitus developed in 20% of normal weight patients while 80% of excess weight patients had diabetes (p=0.0001). Antibodies production (IgM and

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Stochastic Differential Equations Model for the Spread of Coronavirus COVID-19): The Case of Iraq
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In this paper, we model the spread of coronavirus (COVID -19) by introducing stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation susceptible  -infected-recovered (SIR model). The stochastic SIR dynamics are expressed using Itô's formula. We then prove that this stochastic SIR has a unique global positive solution I(t).The main aim of this article is to study the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Iraq from 13/8/2020 to 13/9/2020. Our results provide a new insight into this issue, showing that the introduction of stochastic noise into the  deterministic model for the spread of COVID-19 can cause the disease to die out, in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence. These results were also clearly ill

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Publication Date
Tue May 11 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
The clinical features of COVID - 19 in a group of Iraqi patients: A record review
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Background: The number of coronavirus infection cases has increased rapidly since early reports in the December 2019 in China. But data on the clinical features of infected peoples is variable from one country to the other.

Objective: Studying clinical features of patients with a positive RT PCR COVID – 19, in a group of Iraqi patients.

Results: The study included 200 patients with 133 (66.5%) males and 67 (33.5%) females, and age range of 14- 89 years, with mean age 46.4 years. A history of contact with a COVID -19 positive case was found in 80 patients (40%), Ischemic Heart Disease in 11 patients (5.5%), hypertension 34 (17%), diabetes mellitus 36 patients (18%). The

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