Pandemic COVID-19 is a contagious disease affecting more than 200 countries, territories, and regions. Recently, Iraq is one of the countries that have immensely suffered from this outbreak. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is also prone to the disease. Until now, more than 23,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the region. Since the onset of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, based on epidemiological modelling, researchers have used various models to predict the future of the epidemic and the time of peak, yielding diverse numbers in different countries. This study aims to estimate the basic reproductive number [R0] for COVID-19 in KRI, using the standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemic model. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated and solved numerically by the 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The reproductive numbers R0 was estimated by the method of fitting the curves between the actual daily data and numerical solution by applying the least square method. For the analysis, data were taken for the duration of 165 days, from 1st of March to 12th August 2020, in a population of 5.2 million. It is concluded that the R0 value was fluctuating during the outbreak, with an average of 1.33, predicting that infection cases will reach their maximum value of around 540,000 on the 5th of November 2020. Then, the spread of the disease will die out since the number of susceptible people will decrease to about 3.2 million. While the number of removed individuals will reach approximately to 1.5 million.
In this article we derive two reliability mathematical expressions of two kinds of s-out of -k stress-strength model systems; and . Both stress and strength are assumed to have an Inverse Lomax distribution with unknown shape parameters and a common known scale parameter. The increase and decrease in the real values of the two reliabilities are studied according to the increase and decrease in the distribution parameters. Two estimation methods are used to estimate the distribution parameters and the reliabilities, which are Maximum Likelihood and Regression. A comparison is made between the estimators based on a simulation study by the mean squared error criteria, which revealed that the maximum likelihood estimator works the best.
Novel derivatives of 1-(´1, ´3, ´4, ´6-tetra benzoyl-β-D-fructofuranosyl)-1H- benzotriazole and 1-(´1, ´3, ´4, ´6-tetra benzoyl-β-D-fructofuranosyl)-1H- benzotriazole carrying Schiff bases moiety were synthesised and fully characterised. The protection of D- fructose using benzoyl chloride was synthesized, followed by nucleophilic addition/elimination between benzotria- zole and chloroacetyl chloride to give 1-(1- chloroacetyl)- 1H-benzotriazole. The next step was condensation reaction of protected fructose and 1-(1-chloroacetyl)-1H- benzotriazole producing a new nucleoside analogue. The novel nucleoside analogues underwent a second conden- sation reaction with different aromatic and aliphatic amines to provide new Schiff b
... Show MoreThe research aims to verify the role of the Human Resources Strategic Management (HRSM) in enhancing the strategic success factors for talent (SSFT) in the General Tourism Authority by distributing a questionnaire consisting of (36) paragraphs on an intentional sample represented by the higher departments as it reached (50) and the sample valid for testing was (44) Person and to test the relationships between the two research variables, the researchers used statistical methods represented by (Bartlett test / mean / simple regression coefficient / difference coefficient, alpha- cronbachAch, confirmatory factor Analysis ) through the statistical program (SPSS v.23 & AMOS v.23). In enhancing the factors of success for talent management in the
... Show MoreThis study is concerned with the comparison of the results of some tests of passing and dribbling of the basketball of tow different years between teams of chosen young players in Baghdad. Calculative methods were used namely (Arithmetic mean, Value digression and T.test for incompatible specimens). After careful calculative treatments, it has been that there were abstract or no abstract differences in the find results of chestpass, highdribble and cross-over dribble. The clubs were: (Al-Khark, Air defence, Police and Al-Adamiyah) each one separate from the other for the year (2000-2001). After all that many findings were reached such as the lack of objective valuation (periodical tests) between one sport season and the other. In the light
... Show MoreAssessing water quality provides a scientific foundation for the development and management of water resources. The objective of the research is to evaluate the impact treated effluent from North Rustumiyia wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) on the quality of Diyala river. The model of the artificial neural network (ANN) and factor analysis (FA) based on Nemerow pollution index (NPI). To define important water quality parameters for North Al-Rustumiyia for the line(F2), the Nemerow Pollution Index was introduced. The most important parameters of assessment of water variation quality of wastewater were the parameter used in the model: biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen dem
Polymorphisms in the genes of G-protein subunit beta 3 (GNB3); rs5443, tryptophan hydroxylase 1 (TPH1); rs211105 and rs4537731, tryptophan hydroxylase 2 (TPH2); rs4570625 and sodium voltage-gated channel alpha subunit 5 (SCN5A); rs1805124, have known to cause the abnormalities in the gastrointestinal tract that are implicated to irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) predisposition. Upfront genetic polymorphism genotyping in IBS-related gene polymorphisms will help to intervene and guide the decision-making in the management of IBS patients. This study aimed to develop a genotyping method to detect the respective polymorphisms using nested allele-specific multiplex polymerase chain reaction (NASM-PCR). A combi
... Show MoreObjective: Determination the effectiveness of educational program on female students’ practices toward premenstrual.
Methodology: A quasi-experimental design study was conducted involving (140) student purposely in four secondary schools at Al-sadder city (70) student for study group and (70) for control group. The prevalence of PMS selected through American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) (2015) criteria to select PMS students before program. The education program were set in four steps, the first step (pre-test) is to assess the practices, before the implementation of the program, the second step is implementing the program, following two steps post-test I and II betwe
... Show MoreThe problem of the study was to identify the possibility of benefiting from the application of the target cost system as a modern cost system to activate the environmental cost management instead of the traditional systems used in the company due to the great transformations witnessed by the business environment in all fields, which have resulted in the search for modern systems to provide more accurate and more appropriate information to reduce Costs, because accurate information makes the company have a complete vision to achieve the company’s goals. To solve this problem, the research was based on the following hypothesis (that the role of the target cost system leads to the activation of environmental cost management). Target c
... Show MoreAl-Qudis power plant was chosen, as one of the power stations of Baghdad, to investigate the effects of Cadmium that emitted from combustion of crude oil in that power plant on the workers' glutathione serum level. Air samples were taken seasonally during August 2011- July 2012 from four sites at Al- Qudis power plant which are oil treatment unit 1(site 1), oil treatment 2 (site2), pre –chimney 1(site 3) and pre-chimney 2 (site 4), to measure levels of heavy metal (cadmium) under study. Blood samples were collected from the workers to estimate the heavy metal Cadmium. Air cadmium levels during summer (August and September) were varied from 6.26 ± 0.6 μg/m3 at site 1 to 6.89 ± 0.67 μg/m3 at site 3, while in spring (end of March, and
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