Monthly rainfall data of Baghdad meteorological station were taken to study the time behavior of these data series. Significant fluctuation,very slight increasing trend and significant seasonality were noticed. Several ARIMA models were tested and the best one were checked for the adequacy. It is found that the SEASONAL ARIMA model of the orders SARIMA(2,1,3)x(0,1,1) is the best model where the residual of this model exhibits white noise property, uncorrelateness and they are normally distributed. According to this model, rainfall forecast for four years was also achieved and showing similar trend and extent of the original data.
Road accidents have been identified as one of the main causes of death and have a significant effect on public health challenges, economic growth and development. The Iraqi transport infrastructure has suffered from the effects of war, carelessness, and lack of investment. As a result, road traffic accidents have increased, and the current efforts to address road safety are minimal in comparison to the growing level of citizen suffering. The objective of this study was to provincially analyze traffic accidents in Iraq using data from 2010 to 2020 to shed light on the current situation. Three key conclusions were made from the results: first, people aged 35 years and under was the age group recorded in the most traffic accidents; second, Al-
... Show MoreOne hundred and seventy-six cases of suspected meningitis (SMN) were included in a cross-sectional study. Their ages ranged from less than 1 year to 80 years, of whom 44.3% were male. The aim was to assess bacterial meningitis (BMN) in terms of incidence and types of causative bacteria. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens were collected and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis was conducted with universal primers designed to amplify a DNA fragment (996 bp) of the 16S rRNA gene of eubacteria. Resolving PCR products in agarose-gel electrophoresis revealed that 37.5% of CSF specimens were PCR positive, while 62.5% of CSF specimens showed no band and were considered PCR-negative. Eighty percent of the latter specimens were not
... Show MoreThe analysis of COVID-19 data in Iraq is carried out. Data includes daily cases and deaths since the outbreak of the pandemic in Iraq on February 2020 until the 28th of June 2022. This is done by fitting some distributions to the data in order to find out the most appropriate distribution fit to both daily cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The statistical analysis includes estimation of the parameters, the goodness of fit tests and illustrative probability plots. It was found that the generalized extreme value and the generalized Pareto distributions may provide a good fit for the data for both daily cases and deaths. However, they were rejected by the goodness of fit test statistics due to the high variability of the data.<
... Show MoreBuckling and free vibration analysis of laminated rectangular plates with uniform and non uniform distributed in-plane compressive loadings along two opposite edges is performed using the Ritz method. Classical laminated plate theory is adopted. The static component of the applied in- plane loading are assumed to vary according to uniform, parabolic or linear distributions. Initially, the plate membrane problem is solved using the Ritz method; subsequently, using Hamilton’s variational principle, linear homogeneous algebraic equations in terms of unknown are generated, the set of linear algebraic equations can be solved as an Eigen-value problem. Buckling loads for laminated plates with different combinations of bounda
... Show MoreThis paper aims at analyzing Terry Bisson’s short story Bears Discover Fire stylistically by following both Gerard Genette’s theory of narratology (1980) and Short and Leech (1981) strategy for analyzing fictional works. Also trying to examine to what extent these models are applicable in analyzing the selected story. Stylistic analysis procedures help the readers/researchers to identify specific linguistic features in order to support literary interpretation and appreciation of literary texts. Style in fiction concentrates not on what is written, but on how a text is written. Each writer has his own style and techniques which distinguish him from other writers
The spatial variation of regional development means that some regions to be a center of activities and services and job opportunities and economic development, and are usually in major urban centers, while lacking in other regions to such activities and services. Perhaps the studies of spatial variation SPATIAL INEQUALITY, regional development, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT has had the greatest impact on the operations of regional planning in particular the study of the regional dimension of any city requires that you review the basis and theoretical framework, which refers to the inevitability of the existence of disparities across regions, due to the properties of the regions population and economic political and environmental The study
... Show MoreThis study deals with the estimation of critical load of unidirectional polymer matrix composite plates by using experimental and finite element techniques at different fiber angles and fiber volume fraction of the composite plate.
Buckling analysis illustrated that the critical load decreases in nonlinear relationship with the increase of the fiber angle and that it increases with the increase of the fiber volume fraction.
The results show that the maximum value of the critical load is (629.54 N/m) at (q = 0°) and (Vf = 40 %) for the finite element method, while the minimum val
... Show MoreThe impact of a simple trailing-edge plain flap on the aerodynamics of the SD7037 airfoil have been studied in this paper using computational fluid dynamics at Reynolds number of 3×105 across various low angles of attack and flap deflection angles. The computational model was evaluated by using Star CCM+ software with κ--ω SST turbulence and gamma transition model to solve Navier-Stokes equations. The accuracy of the computational model has been confirmed through comparison with experimental data, showing a high level of agreement at low angles of attack. The findings revealed that specific combinations of angles of attack and flap deflection angles could increase the lift-to-drag ratio by over 70% compared to baseline conditions, benefi
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