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Forecasting by Using the Optimal Time Series Method

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 18 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanics Of Continua And Mathematical Sciences
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Multi-Sites Multi-Variables Forecasting Model for Hydrological Data using Genetic Algorithm Modeling

A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was

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Publication Date
Wed May 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Improvement the efficiency of SnO2/n-Si detector by engraving method using a CNC machine

Tin oxide was deposited by using vacuum thermal method on silicon wafer engraved by Computer Numerical Controlled (CNC) Machine. The inscription was engraved by diamond-made brine. Deep 0.05 mm in the form of concentric squares. Electrical results in the dark were shown high value of forward current and the high value of the detection factor from 6.42 before engraving to 10.41 after engraving. (I-V) characters in illumination with powers (50, 100, 150, 200, 250) mW/cm2 show Improved properties of the detector, Especially at power (150, 200, 250) mW/cm2. Response improved in rise time from 2.4 μs to 0.72 μs and time of inactivity improved 515.2 μs to 44.2 μs. Sensitivity angle increased at zone from 40o to 65o.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 29 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A New Mixed Nonpolynomial Spline Method for the Numerical Solutions of Time Fractional Bioheat Equation

In this paper, a numerical approximation for a time fractional one-dimensional bioheat equation (transfer paradigm) of temperature distribution in tissues is introduced. It deals with the Caputo fractional derivative with order for time fractional derivative and new mixed nonpolynomial spline for second order of space derivative. We also analyzed the convergence and stability by employing Von Neumann method for the present scheme.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Estimation of Initial Oil in Place for Buzurgan Oil Field by Using Volumetric Method and Reservoir Simulation Method

The estimation of the initial oil in place is a crucial topic in the period of exploration, appraisal, and development of the reservoir. In the current work, two conventional methods were used to determine the Initial Oil in Place. These two methods are a volumetric method and a reservoir simulation method. Moreover, each method requires a type of data whereet al the volumetric method depends on geological, core, well log and petrophysical properties data while the reservoir simulation method also needs capillary pressure versus water saturation, fluid production and static pressure data for all active wells at the Mishrif reservoir. The petrophysical properties for the studied reservoir is calculated using neural network technique

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Publication Date
Sun May 17 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Numerical Solutions for the Optimal Control Governing by Variable Coefficients Nonlinear Hyperbolic Boundary Value Problem Using the Gradient Projection, Gradient and Frank Wolfe Methods

This paper is concerned with studying the numerical solution for the discrete classical optimal control problem (NSDCOCP) governed by a variable coefficients nonlinear hyperbolic boundary value problem (VCNLHBVP). The DSCOCP is solved by using the Galerkin finite element method (GFEM) for the space variable and implicit finite difference scheme (GFEM-IFDS) for the time variable to get the NS for the discrete weak form (DWF) and for the discrete adjoint weak form (DSAWF) While, the gradient projection method (GRPM), also called the gradient method (GRM), or the Frank Wolfe method (FRM) are used to minimize the discrete cost function (DCF) to find the DSCOC. Within these three methods, the Armijo step option (ARMSO) or the optimal step opt

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of Mandibular Third Molar Position by Using Space-Width Ratio Method

Background: The prediction of changes in the mandibular third molar position and eruption is an important clinical concern because third molar retention may be beneficial for orthodontic anchorage. The aims of this study were to assess the mandibular third molar position by using medical CT scan and lateral reconstructed radiograph and evaluate gender differences. Materials and Methods: The sample of present study consisted of 39 patients (18 males and 21 females) with age range 11-15 years who were attending at Al-Suwayra General Hospital/ the Computerized Tomography department. The distance from anterior edge of ramus to distal surface of permanent mandibular second molar and mesio-distal width of developing mandibular third molar were

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Permeability Prediction for Nahr-Umr Reservoir / Subba field by Using FZI Method

 The permeability determination in the reservoirs that are anisotropic and heterogeneous is a complicated problem due to the limited number of wells that contain core samples and well test data. This paper presents hydraulic flow units and flow zone indicator for predicting permeability of rock mass from core for Nahr-Umr reservoir/ Subba field. The Permeability measurement is better found in the laboratory work on the cored rock that taken from the formation. Nahr-Umr Formation is the main lower cretaceous sandstone reservoir in southern of Iraq. This formation is made up mainly of sandstone. Nahr-Umr formation was deposited on a gradually rising basin floor. The digenesis of Nahr-Umr sediments is very important du

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Laser Surface Melting by Using Enthalpy Method
Abstract<p>In this study, experimental and numerical applied of heat distribution due to pulsed Nd: YAG laser surface melting. Experimental side was consists of laser parameters are, pulse duration1.3<italic>ms</italic>, wavelength 1064nm, laser energies 1.5, 2. 6 and 4.3 J, laser beam diameter is 0.6 mm and spot diameter 0.78 mm was applied a low carbon steel type St37 with a dimension 10, 10, 3 mm, length, width and thickness respectively. Numerical analysis side consist of a mathematical model and calculating a thermal cycle by using equation in the enthalpy method applied to determine the cooling rate in fusion zone. The simulation by using the enthalpy method, applied on conduction heat transfer </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Jul 19 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Game Theory to Determine the Optimal Strategy for the Transportation Sector in Iraq

In this paper, game theory was used and applied to the transport sector in Iraq, as this sector includes two axes, the public transport axis and the second axis the private transport axis, as each of these axes includes several types of transport, namely (sea transport, air transport, land transport, transport by rail, port transport) and the travel and tourism sector, as public transport lacks this sector, as the competitive advantage matrix for the transport sector was formed and after applying the MinMax-MaxMin principle to the matrix in all its stages, it was found that there was an equilibrium point except for the last stage where the equilibrium point was not available Therefore, the use of the linear programming method was

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