In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.
Background :Infectious disorders in general have high morbidity and mortality.. CNS infections include many disorders like bacterial meningitis, tuberculous and other subacute and chronic meningitis, viral meningitis, cerebral abscess, spinal cord infections, and others.
Objective: To assess our locality about prevalence of CNS infections , to have more awareness regarding CNS infections, and to try to find the proper way to reduce their prevalence and to treat them in appropriate way.
Method :We revised the records of all the cases of CNS infections excluding cases of spinal cord infections who were admitted in the wards of neuroscience hospital over the previous two years ( from July/2010 to June 2012 ),those were 132 cases.Seaso
The present paper investigates the role of fear and predator dependent refuge in the prey-predator system. The system describes the interaction between prey and a stage structure of predator that incorporates Holling II functional response. The predator splits into two compartments immature (juvenile) and mature (adult). The mature predators can hunt and reproduce but this capability is not found in the immature predators, the immature depend on their parents. The growth rate of prey decreases due to the existence of mature predators. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution of the system are investigated. Three equilibrium points of the system are determined. The local stability of the system is studied. The global stabil
... Show MoreThis paper is concerned with the blow-up solutions of a system of two reaction-diffusion equations coupled in both equations and boundary conditions. In order to understand how the reaction terms and the boundary terms affect the blow-up properties, the lower and upper blow-up rate estimates are derived. Moreover, the blow-up set under some restricted assumptions is studied.
In solar-thermal adsorption/desorption processes, it is not always possible to preserve equal operating times for the adsorption/desorption modes due to the fluctuating supply nature of the source which largely affects the system’s operating conditions. This paper seeks to examine the impact of adopting unequal adsorption/desorption times on the entire cooling performance of solar adsorption systems. A cooling system with silica gel–water as adsorbent-adsorbate pair has been built and tested under the climatic condition of Iraq. A mathematical model has been established to predict the system performance, and the results are successfully validated via the experimental findings. The results show that, the system can be operational
... Show MoreKurdistan power system is expanded along years ago. The electrical power is transmitted through long transmission lines. The main problem of transmission lines is active and reactive power losses. It is important to solve this issue, unless, the most of electrical energy will lost over transmission system. In this study, High Voltage Direct Current links/bipolar connection were connected in a power system to reduce the power losses. The 132kV, 50 Hz, 36 buses Kurdistan power system is used as a study case. The load flow analysis was implemented by using ETAP.16 program in which Newton-Raphson method for three cases. The results show that the losses are reduced after inserted HVDC links.
Peer-Reviewed Journal
Solar photovoltaic (PV) has many environmental benefits and it is considered to be a practical alternative to traditional energy generation. The electrical conversion efficiency of such systems is inherently limited due to the relatively high thermal resistance of the PV components. An approach for intensifying electrical and thermal production of air-type photovoltaic thermal (PVT) systems via applying a combination of fins and surface zigzags was proposed in this paper. This research study aims to apply three performance enhancers: case B, including internal fins; case C, back surface zigzags; and case D, combinations of fins and surface zigzags; whereas the baseline smooth duct rep