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Mean Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method for Random Sampling of a Nonlinear Epidemic System
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In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Detection of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease among Smokers Aged ≥40 years Attending Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad-AL-Karkh and AL-Resafa: الكشف عن الالكشف عن مرض الانسداد الرئوي المزمن بين المدخنين الذين تزيد أعمارهم عن 40 عامًا يراجعون مراكز الرعاية الصحية الأولية في بغداد - الكرخ و الرصافة
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Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease causes permanent morbidity, premature mortality and great burden to the healthcare system. Smoking is it's most common risk factor and Spirometry is for diagnosing COPD and monitoring its progression.

Objectives: Early detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in symptomatic smokers’ ≥ 40years by spirometry.

Methods: A cross sectional study on all symptomatic smokers aged ≥ 40 years attending ten PHCCs in Baghdad Alkarkh and Alrisafa. Those whose FEV1/FVC was <70% on spirometry; after giving bronchodilator, were considered COPD +ve.

Results:  Overall, airway obstruction was seen in

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 18 2022
Journal Name
Materials Science Forum
The Effect of Gamma Radiation on the Manufactured HgBa&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;Ca&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;Cu&lt;sub&gt;2.4&lt;/sub&gt;Ag&lt;sub&gt;0.6&lt;/sub&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;8+δ&lt;/sub&gt; Compound
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In this article four samples of HgBa2Ca2Cu2.4Ag0.6O8+δ were prepared and irradiated with different doses of gamma radiation 6, 8 and 10 Mrad. The effects of gamma irradiation on structure of HgBa2Ca2Cu2.4Ag0.6O8+δ samples were characterized using X-ray diffraction. It was concluded that there effect on structure by gamma irradiation. Scherrer, crystallization, and Williamson equations were applied based on the X-ray diffraction diagram and for all gamma doses, to calculate crystal size, strain, and degree of crystallinity. I

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