In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.
Abstract
Background: The novel coronavirus 2 (SARS?CoV?2) pandemic is a pulmonary disease, which leads to cardiac, hematologic, and renal complications. Anticoagulants are used for COVID-19 infected patients because the infection increases the risk of thrombosis. The world health organization (WHO), recommend prophylaxis dose of anticoagulants: (Enoxaparin or unfractionated Heparin for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 disease. This has created an urgent need to identify effective medications for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. The value of COVID-19 treatments is affected by cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to inform relative value and how to best maximize social welfare through eviden
... Show MoreAbstract Background: The novel coronavirus 2 (SARS?CoV?2) pandemic is a pulmonary disease, which leads to cardiac, hematologic, and renal complications. Anticoagulants are used for COVID-19 infected patients because the infection increases the risk of thrombosis. The world health organization (WHO), recommend prophylaxis dose of anticoagulants: (Enoxaparin or unfractionated Heparin for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 disease. This has created an urgent need to identify effective medications for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. The value of COVID-19 treatments is affected by cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to inform relative value and how to best maximize social welfare through evidence-based pricing decisions. O
... Show MoreDouble hydrothermal method was used to prepare nano gamma alumina using aluminum nitrate nano hydrate and sodium aluminate as an aluminum source, CTAB (cetyltrimethylammonium bromide) as surfactant, and variable acids: weak acids like; citric, and acitic acids, and strong acids like; hydrochloric and nitric acids as a bridge between aluminum salts and surfactant. Different crystallization times 12, 24, 48, and 72 hrs were applied. All the batches were prepared at pH equals to 9. XRD diffraction technique was used to investigate the crystalline nano gamma alumina pure from surfactant. N2 adsorption-desorption (BET) was used to measure the surface area and pore volume of the prepared nano alumina, the average p
... Show MoreCalcium-Montmorillonite (bentonite) [Ca-MMT] has been prepared via cation exchange reaction using benzalkonium chloride [quaternary ammonium] as a surfactant to produce organoclay which is used to prepare polymer composites. Functionalization of this filler surface is very important factor for achieving good interaction between filler and polymer matrix. Basal spacing and functional groups identification of this organoclay were characterized using X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy respectively. The (XRD) results showed that the basal spacing of the treated clay (organoclay) with the benzalkonium chloride increased to 15.17213 0A, this represents an increment of about 77.9% in the
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Binary logistic regression model used in data classification and it is the strongest most flexible tool in study cases variable response binary when compared to linear regression. In this research, some classic methods were used to estimate parameters binary logistic regression model, included the maximum likelihood method, minimum chi-square method, weighted least squares, with bayes estimation , to choose the best method of estimation by default values to estimate parameters according two different models of general linear regression models ,and different s
... Show MoreCopper oxide thin films were deposited on glass substrate using Successive Ionic Layer Adsorption and Reaction (SILAR) method at room temperature. The thickness of the thin films was around 0.43?m.Copper oxide thin films were annealed in air at (200, 300 and 400°C for 45min.The film structure properties were characterized by x-ray diffraction (XRD). XRD patterns indicated the presence of polycrystalline CuO. The average grain size is calculated from the X-rays pattern, it is found that the grain size increased with increasing annealing temperature. Optical transmitter microscope (OTM) and atomic force microscope (AFM) was also used. Direct band gap values of 2.2 eV for an annealed sample and (2, 1.5, 1.4) eV at 200, 300,400oC respect
... Show MoreThe research's aim is to place two teaching methods ( total and analytical method) and to know which one of them is better than the other in teaching the counter-attack with Epee. The researchers have used the experimental method for being considered suitable to solve the problem of the research. The sample of the research includes third –stage female students of college of physical education and sport sciences / Baghdad University in the subject of fencing, their number amounted 60 female students. It has been used SPSS for processing the results. They have concluded that the two groups of the research and the two methods (( total and analytical) have learnt the counter- attack of the two over mentioned groups. they have recommended to c
... Show MoreA novel technique for nanoparticles with a chemical method and impact for resistance bacteria methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), UV-visible analysis confirmed the by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and Energy dispersive X-Ray (EDX), Scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-ray diffraction pattern estimation antimicrobial excellent antibacterial activity against MRSA (with zone of inhibition of 11 ± 02 mm , 9 ± 01 mm,8 ± 03 mm and 7.5 ± 02 mm and 6.5 ± 02 mm) at different concentrations (0.5 ,0.25, 0.125, 0.0625, 0.03125) mg/ml while good activity was 16 ± 03 mm at 17 ± 02 mm zone at 0.25, 0.125 mg/mL, respectively. The increase in microorganism resistance to antibiotics a couple of have caused
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