In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.
This research aims to choose the appropriate probability distribution to the reliability analysis for an item through collected data for operating and stoppage time of the case study.
Appropriate choice for .probability distribution is when the data look to be on or close the form fitting line for probability plot and test the data for goodness of fit .
Minitab’s 17 software was used for this purpose after arranging collected data and setting it in the the program.
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... Show MoreIT has its impact on all aspects of life, including its planning and operations. Based on the assumption that the plan can adapt any technique as an analytical tool within broader dimensions to include society in general and meet the requirements of that society. They have neutral values, meaning and usefulness rather than being adopted as abstract goals or objectives so that the planner or the decision-maker can benefit greatly from them. This information technology is summarized in three main axes: First: Geographic Information Systems. Second: computer modeling. Third: visual simulation and the Internet. The problem of research is that the decision-making environment of the plan is surrounded by uncertain information-planning conditio
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Economic intelligence represents a modern field of knowledge that has been and is still the focus of many studies and research, including this research that deals with economic intelligence and its role in strengthening Iraqi national security - an analytical study. Economic development and economic development without security, and in a situation such as that of Iraq, which is still suffering from conflicts, conflicts and the effects of wars, as well as the unstable conditions in its regional environment, the directions of that relationship cannot be determined except through the availability of accurate information, indicators, full knowledge of reality and the pos
... Show MoreMost of the propositions and researches that dealt with fashions in the Middle East, specifically this region from the world, from a historical perspective have not been sufficient, and were characterized by many aspects of immature thinking, in addition, they have been varied in quality. This can be attributed to many factors including: the focus in the field of researches and Middle East studies is on languages, arts, history, and political thinking of the region. Other factors are the information asymmetry, the differences in sources and references, in addition to differences in the scientific value of these sources added to the difficulty of gathering them at the same time especially that these sources are scattered in many places wh
... Show MoreIn this paper, a national grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system is proposed. It extracts the maximum power point (MPP) using three-incremental-steps perturb and observe (TISP&O) maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method. It improves the classic P&O by using three incremental duty ratio (ΔD) instead of a single one in the conventional P and O MPPT method. Therefore, the system's performance is improved to a higher speed and less power fluctuation around the MPP. The Boost converter controls the MPPT and then is connected to a three-phase voltage source inverter (VSI). This type of inverter needs a high and constant input voltage. A second-order low pass (LC) filter is connected to the output of VSI to reduce t
... Show MoreIn this paper, two new simple, fast and efficient block matching algorithms are introduced, both methods begins blocks matching process from the image center block and moves across the blocks toward image boundaries. With each block, its motion vector is initialized using linear prediction that depending on the motion vectors of its neighbor blocks that are already scanned and their motion vectors are assessed. Also, a hybrid mechanism is introduced, it depends on mixing the proposed two predictive mechanisms with Exhaustive Search (ES) mechanism in order to gain matching accuracy near or similar to ES but with Search Time ST less than 80% of the ES. Also, it offers more control capability to reduce the search errors. The experimental tests
... Show MoreDue to the continuing demand for larger bandwidth, the optical transport becoming general in the access network. Using optical fiber technologies, the communications infrastructure becomes powerful, providing very high speeds to transfer a high capacity of data. Existing telecommunications infrastructures is currently widely used Passive Optical Network that apply Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) and is awaited to play an important role in the future Internet supporting a large diversity of services and next generation networks. This paper presents a design of WDM-PON network, the simulation and analysis of transmission parameters in the Optisystem 7.0 environment for bidirectional traffic. The simulation shows the behavior of optical
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Due to the continuing demand for larger bandwidth, the optical transport becoming general in the access network. Using optical fiber technologies, the communications infrastructure becomes powerful, providing very high speeds to transfer a high capacity of data. Existing telecommunications infrastructures is currently widely used Passive Optical Network that apply Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) and is awaited to play an important role in the future Internet supporting a large diversity of services and next generation networks. This paper presents a design of WDM-PON network, the simulation and analysis of transmission parameters in the Optisystem 7.0 environment for bidirectional traffic. The sim
... Show MoreWith the rapid development of computers and network technologies, the security of information in the internet becomes compromise and many threats may affect the integrity of such information. Many researches are focused theirs works on providing solution to this threat. Machine learning and data mining are widely used in anomaly-detection schemes to decide whether or not a malicious activity is taking place on a network. In this paper a hierarchical classification for anomaly based intrusion detection system is proposed. Two levels of features selection and classification are used. In the first level, the global feature vector for detection the basic attacks (DoS, U2R, R2L and Probe) is selected. In the second level, four local feature vect
... Show MoreRecently, with the development multimedia technologies and wireless telecommunication, Voice over Internet Protocol, becomes widely used in communication between connecting people, VoIP allows people that are connected to the local network or the Internet to make voice calls using digital connection instead of based on the analog traditional telephone network. The technologies of Internet doesn’t give any security mechanism and there is no way to guarntee that the voice streams will be transmitted over Internet or network have not been intercepted in between. In this paper, VoIP is developed using stream cipher algorithm and the chaotic cryptography for key generator. It is based on the chaotic maps for generating a one-time rando
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