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Mean Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method for Random Sampling of a Nonlinear Epidemic System

In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Modified alvarado scoring system. How much helpful?

Background:-The Modified Alvarado Scoring System (MASS) has been reported to be a cheap and quick diagnostic tool in patients with acute appendicitis. However, differences in diagnostic accuracy have been observed if the scores were applied to various populations and clinical settings.
Objectives:- The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of Modified Alvarado Scoring System in patients with acute appendicitis in our setting.
Methods:-one hundre twenty eight patients ,were included in this study, admitted to Al-Kindy teaching hospital from June 2009 to June 2010. Patients’ age ranged from 8 to 56 years (21±10) they were divided into three groups; paediatrics, child bearing age females & adult males,. MAS

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Health System in Iraq Post 2003 War

Background: War represents a major human crisis; it destroys communities and results in ingrained consequences for public health and well-being

Objective: We set this study to shed light on the public health status in Iraq after the successive wars, sanctions, sectarian conflicts, and terrorism, in light of certain health indicators.

Design: The primary source of data for this analysis comes from the Iraqi Ministry of Health, and The World Health Organization disease surveillance.

Results: Most of the morbidity indicators are high, even those that are relatively declining recently, are still higher than those repor

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Intelligent Dust Monitoring System Based on IoT

Dust is a frequent contributor to health risks and changes in the climate, one of the most dangerous issues facing people today. Desertification, drought, agricultural practices, and sand and dust storms from neighboring regions bring on this issue. Deep learning (DL) long short-term memory (LSTM) based regression was a proposed solution to increase the forecasting accuracy of dust and monitoring. The proposed system has two parts to detect and monitor the dust; at the first step, the LSTM and dense layers are used to build a system using to detect the dust, while at the second step, the proposed Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) and Internet of Things (IoT) model is used as a forecasting and monitoring model. The experiment DL system

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Generating a Strong Key for a Stream Cipher Systems Based on Permutation Networks

The choice of binary Pseudonoise (PN) sequences with specific properties, having long period high complexity, randomness, minimum cross and auto- correlation which are essential for some communication systems. In this research a nonlinear PN generator is introduced . It consists of a combination of basic components like Linear Feedback Shift Register (LFSR), ?-element which is a type of RxR crossbar switches. The period and complexity of a sequence which are generated by the proposed generator are computed and the randomness properties of these sequences are measured by well-known randomness tests.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 31 2024
Journal Name
Association Of Arab Universities Journal Of Engineering Sciences
Using Solid Waste as A Substitute for Raw Materials in Construction: A Review.

The main challenge is to protect the environment from future deterioration due to pollution and the lack of natural resources. Therefore, one of the most important things to pay attention to and get rid of its negative impact is solid waste. Solid waste is a double-edged sword according to the way it is dealt with, as neglecting it causes a serious environmental risk from water, air and soil pollution, while dealing with it in the right way makes it an important resource in preserving the environment. Accordingly, the proper management of solid waste and its reuse or recycling is the most important factor. Therefore, attention has been drawn to the use of solid waste in different ways, and the most common way is to use it as an alternative

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad

Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Oct 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Deadline-Budget Constrained Task Admission Control for a Software-as-a-Service Provider in Cloud Computing

    Cloud computing is a pay-as-you-go model that provides users with on-demand access to services or computing resources. It is a challenging issue to maximize the service provider's profit and, on the other hand, meet the Quality of Service (QoS) requirements of users. Therefore, this paper proposes an admission control heuristic (ACH) approach that selects or rejects the requests based on budget, deadline, and penalty cost, i.e., those given by the user. Then a service level agreement (SLA) is created for each selected request. The proposed work uses Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and the Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) to schedule the selected requests under budget and deadline constraints. Performances of PSO and SSA with and witho

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparison of the Methods for Estimation of Reliability Function for Burr-XII Distribution by Using Simulation.

This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Improve operational performance by simulating the Holonic manufacturing system A case study at the rubber product plant in Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf

The research aims to improve operational performance through the application of the Holonic Manufacturing System (HMS) in the rubber products factory in Najaf. The problem was diagnosed with the weakness of the manufacturing system in the factory to meet customers' demands on time within the available resources of machines and workers, which led to time delays of Processing and delivery, increased costs, and reduced flexibility in the factory, A case study methodology used to identify the reality of the manufacturing system and the actual operational performance in the factory. The simulation was used to represent the proposed (HMS) by using (Excel 2010) based on the actual data and calculate the operational performance measures

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 23 2023
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
Individual analysis of kinetic response variables according to the measurement of the H7 system for the best jumping players in the national basketball team 2021

The skill scale in most of sport activity monitoring a lot of dynamic behaviours conducted with playing situations that help the excerpt's in sport field to evaluate and put right solutions ,soccer one of games that studies in third stage in college and take skills ,dribbling , passing, shooting these skills helps to execute the plans in game ,the researchers notice that there is no test measure the skills of the game in the beginning of the first semester especially in the method of soccer in physical education college and the problem of the research were by answering the question that is there test connect between one or more that one of skill to measure the ability of students to execute the plans in soccer and the conclusion was the bui

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