In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.
The important factor in the success of construction projects is its ability to objective estimate of the cost of the project and adapt to the changes of the external environment, which is affected by a lot of elements and the requirements of the competitive environment. The faces of those projects are several problems in order to achieve particular goals. To overcome these difficulties has been the development of research in the last two decades and turn the focus on the role of the cost of project management, by providing information and assist management in planning and control of the budget among the main elements of the project, namely, (time-cost-quality),The research aims at the possibility of developing and implementing mechanisms
... Show MoreThe current research included (the evaluation of Information Security Management System on according to international standard (ISO / IEC 27001: 2013) in Iraqi Commission for Computers and Informatics), for the development of an administrative system for information security is considered a priority in the present day, and in the light of the organizations dependence on computers and information technology in work and communication with others. The international legitimacy (represented by the International Organization for standardization (ISO)) remains the basis for matching and commitment and the importance of the application of information Security Management System accordi
... Show MoreThe process of transformation from the central economy to a free economy requires restructuring the economy according to a new economic philosophy that relies on activating the role of private economic activity in which private and medium-sized institutions occupy an essential axis for their active role in the economies of all countries, especially those countries that have directed towards the market mechanism and sector leadership. The special process of economic development and the role that commercial banks can play in advancing the financing of these projects by establishing specialized business incubators for financing.
What encouraged countries to pay attention to these institutions is the ease of
... Show MoreAbstract:
This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
... Show MoreUrban expansion and its environmental and safety effects are one of the critical information needed for future development planning, safety considerations and environmental management. This work used two methods to monitor urban expansion and it's environmental and safety effects, the first is based on Google Maps for the years 2002 and 2010, and the second was the usage of spatial videos for the year 2013. Although the usage of satellite images is critical to know and investigate the general situation and the total effects of the expansion on a large piece of area, but the Spatial videos do a very detailed fine scale investigation, site conditions regarding both environmental and safety cannot be easily distinguished fr
... Show MoreThe right to property is one of the most fundamental rights enjoyed by individuals, and most national constitutions and laws, as well as international conventions, have to be respected and protected only in accordance with the economic and social development of the country (the so-called public benefit) and in return for just compensation. What is fair compensation?
The main aim of this paper is to study how the different estimators of the two unknown parameters (shape and scale parameter) of a generalized exponential distribution behave for different sample sizes and for different parameter values. In particular,
. Maximum Likelihood, Percentile and Ordinary Least Square estimators had been implemented for different sample sizes (small, medium, and large) and assumed several contrasts initial values for the two parameters. Two indicators of performance Mean Square Error and Mean Percentile Error were used and the comparisons were carried out between different methods of estimation by using monte carlo simulation technique .. It was obse
... Show MoreThe Assignment model is a mathematical model that aims to express a real problem facing factories and companies which is characterized by the guarantee of its activity in order to make the appropriate decision to get the best allocation of machines or jobs or workers on machines in order to increase efficiency or profits to the highest possible level or reduce costs or time To the extent possible, and in this research has been using the method of labeling to solve the problem of the fuzzy assignment of real data has been approved by the tire factory Diwaniya, where the data included two factors are the factors of efficiency and cost, and was solved manually by a number of iterations until reaching the optimization solution,
... Show More