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Mean Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method for Random Sampling of a Nonlinear Epidemic System
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In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Between Shrinkage &Maximum likelihood Method For Estimation Parameters &Reliability Function With 3- Parameter Weibull Distribution By Using Simulation
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The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rate somewhat high in starting operation and these rates will be decreased with increasing time .

In practical side a comparison was made between (Shrinkage and Maximum likelihood) Estimators for parameter and reliability function using simulation , we conclude that the Shrinkage estimators for parameters are better than maximum likelihood estimators but the maximum likelihood estimator for reliability function is the better using statistical measures (MAPE)and (MSE) and for different sample sizes.

Note:- ns : small sample ; nm=median sample

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 13 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Transient Behavior Analysis for Solar Energy Storage in PCM-CFM Material Using Equivalent Heat Capacity Method as Storage Model
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A paraffin wax and copper foam matrix were used as a thermal energy storage material in the double passes air solar chimney (SC) collector to get ventilation effect through daytime and after sunset. Air SC collector was installed in the south wall of an insulated test room and tested with different working angles (30o, 45o and 60o). Different SC types were used; single pass, double passes flat plate collector and double pass thermal energy storage box collector (TESB). A computational model based on the finite volume method for transient tw dimensional domains was carried out to describe the heat transfer and storage in the thermal energy storage material of collector. Also, equivalent specific heat metho

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 29 2016
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Using Semi-Analytic Method to Decreasing Dangers of Lead
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         The aim of this paper is to present a method for solving of system of first order initial value problems of ordinary differential equation by a semi-analytic technique with constructing polynomial solutions for decreasing dangers of lead. The original problem is concerned using two-point osculatory interpolation with the fit equals  numbers of derivatives at the end points of an interval [0 , 1].

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Time Series Analysis of Baghdad Rainfall Using ARIMA Method
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Monthly rainfall data of Baghdad meteorological station were taken to study the time behavior of these data series. Significant fluctuation,very slight increasing trend and significant seasonality were noticed. Several ARIMA models were tested and the best one were checked for the adequacy. It is found that the SEASONAL ARIMA model of the orders SARIMA(2,1,3)x(0,1,1) is the best model where the residual of this model exhibits white noise property, uncorrelateness and they are normally distributed. According to this model, rainfall forecast for four years was also achieved and showing similar trend and extent of the original data.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Treatment of Furfural Wastewater by (AOPs) Photo-Fenton Method
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The objective of this study is to investigate the application of advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) in the treatment of wastewater contaminated with furfural. The AOPs investigated is the homogeneous photo-Fenton (UV/H2O2/Fe+2) process. The experiments were conducted by using cylindrical stainless steel batch photo-reactor. The influence of different variables: initial concentration of H2O2 (300-1300mg/L), Fe+2(20-70mg/L), pH(2-7) and initial concentration of furfural (50-300 mg/L) and their relationship with the mineralization efficiency were studied.

 Complete mineralization for the system UV/H2O2/Fe+2 was achieved at: initi

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation Method of Mesh Protocol over ESP32 and ESP8266
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Internet of Things (IoT) is one of the newest matters in both industry and academia of the communication engineering world. On the other hand, wireless mesh networks, a network topology that has been debate for decades that haven’t been put into use in great scale, can make a transformation when it arises to the network in the IoT world nowadays. A Mesh IoT network is a local network architecture in which linked devices cooperate and route data using a specified protocol. Typically, IoT devices exchange sensor data by connecting to an IoT gateway. However, there are certain limitations if it involves to large number of sensors and the data that should be received is difficult to analyze. The aim of the work here is to implement a self-

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect Of Bracket Ligation Method On Canine Retraction
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Aim: This study aimed to compare different types of ligation methods to obtain maximum tooth movement with the least undesirable rotation. Methods: Titanium brackets bonded to acrylic canine teeth were ligated to straight stainless steel (SS) archwires using four ligation methods (figure-O and figure-8 elastics, SS ligatures, and Leone Slide ligatures). The teeth with the ligatures in place were stored in a water bath at 37ºC for 1 day, 1 week, 2, 4 or 6 weeks before testing. The teeth were retracted through softened wax along the archwire and the amount of tooth movement and degree of rotation were measured. Results: Slide ligatures showed the highest distance of tooth movement and degree of canine rotation followed by figure-O elastics

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 18 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Sport Sciences
The school system and its relationship to the evolution of some indicators of physical and functional skills in a lesson and basketball
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Design and Construction of a Dust Detection System using Infrared Laser: The Case of Dust Storms in Baghdad in the Summer 2022
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Iraq suffers from serious pollution with harmful particles that have important direct and indirect effects on human activities and human health. In this research, a system for detecting pollutants in the air was designed and manufactured using infrared laser technology. This system was used to detect the presence of pollutants in the dust storms that swept the city of Baghdad which could have a negative impact on human health and living organisms.

The designed detection system based on the use of infrared laser (IR) with a wavelength of 1064 nm was used for the purposes of detecting pollutants based on the scattering of the laser beam from these pollutants. The system was aligned to obtain the best signal for the scattered rays, w

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A study of the effect of new cobalt (II) complex and cyclophosphamide drug on (GPT, ALP) activity by using in vivo system
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The present work involved a study the effect of cobalt(II) complex with formula [CoL(H2O)NO3] .4ETOH where L=Nitro [5-(P-nitro phenyl) -4-phenyl-1,2,4 traizole-3-dithiocarbamato hydrazide] aqua. (4) Ethanol and anti-cancer drug - cyclophosphamide on specific activity of two liver enzymes (GPT,ALP) by utilizing an in vivo system in female mice. On the enzymatic level an inhibition in the activity of GPT was noticed in different body organs such as liver, kidney and lung. The inhibition was noticed in both test and cyclophosphamide drug (cp). Mice were treated with three doses of cyclophosphamide (90,180, 250) ?g/ mouse for three days. The same doses were used for the cobalt (II) complex. The liver shows the highest rate of(GPT) inhibition co

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