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Mean Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method for Random Sampling of a Nonlinear Epidemic System
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In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Energies
Natural Convection Effect on Solidification Enhancement in a Multi-Tube Latent Heat Storage System: Effect of Tubes’ Arrangement
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The solidification process in a multi-tube latent heat energy system is affected by the natural convection and the arrangement of heat exchanger tubes, which changes the buoyancy effect as well. In the current work, the effect of the arrangement of the tubes in a multi-tube heat exchanger was examined during the solidification process with the focus on the natural convection effects inside the phase change material (PCM). The behavior of the system was numerically analyzed using liquid fraction and energy released, as well as temperature, velocity and streamline profiles for different studied cases. The arrangement of the tubes, considering seven pipes in the symmetrical condition, are assumed at different positions in the system, i

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 31 2014
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Petroleum system modeling and risk assessments of Ad’daimah oil field: a case study from Mesan Governorate, south Iraq
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 11 2026
Journal Name
Pharmaceutics
Design-Expert® Optimization of Tamoxifen-Loaded Transethosomal Gels: A Promising Transdermal System with Cytotoxicity and Stability Validation
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Background: This study evaluates transdermal delivery of tamoxifen (TXN) as an alternative to the oral route of administration in treating breast cancer, which is the leading cause of cancer-related death in women globally. Oral TXN, a Class II drug, is associated with first-pass metabolism and serious side effects, including secondary cancers. Objectives: To enhance transdermal delivery, lipid-based transethosomes (TRS) were formulated using three different 24 factorial designs with various non-ionic surfactants, including Tween 20®, Span 20®, and Span 80®. Methods: Optimized TRS formulations were incorporated into HPMC-based gels and characterized for morphology, drug content, pH, viscosity, spreadability, ex vivo skin penetrat

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Study of the Performance of Paraffin Wax as a Phase Change Material in Packed Bed Thermal Energy Storage System
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The present work deals with an experimental investigation of charging and discharging processes in thermal storage system using a phase change material PCM. Paraffin wax was used as the PCM which is formed in spherical capsules and packed in a cylindrical packed column which acted as an energy storage system. Air was used as the heat transfer fluid HTF in thermal storage unit. The effect of flow rate and inlet temperature of HTF on the time of charging and discharging process were studied. The results showed that the faster storage of thermal energy can be made by high flow rate of heat transfer fluid HTF and high inlet temperature of heat transfer fluid. It was found that at 65°C HTF inlet temperature, the melting and solidification pr

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Simulation of The Influence of Geometric Parameter on The Flow Behavior in a Solar Chimney Power Plant System
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Numerical simulations have been carried out on the solar chimney power plant systems. This paper gives the flow field analysis for a solar chimney power generation project located in Baghdad. The continuity, Naver-stockes, energy and radiation transfer equations have been solved and carried out by Fluent software. The governing equations are solved for incompressible, 3-D, steady state, turbulent is approximated by a standard k -  model with Boussiuesq approximation to study and evaluate the performance of solar chimney power plant in Baghdad city of Iraq. The different geometric parameters of project are assumed such as collector diameter and chimney height at different working conditions of solar radiation intensity (300,450,600,750

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 04 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Punch Holes, Invented Steganography Method Researchers
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A coin has two sides. Steganography although conceals the existence of a message but is not completely secure. It is not meant to supersede cryptography but to supplement it. The main goal of this method is to minimize the number of LSBs that are changed when substituting them with the bits of characters in the secret message. This will lead to decrease the distortion (noise) that is occurred in the pixels of the stego-image and as a result increase the immunity of the stego-image against the visual attack. The experiment shows that the proposed method gives good enhancement to the steganoraphy technique and there is no difference between the cover-image and the stego-image that can be seen by the human vision system (HVS), so this method c

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
ON NAIVE TAYLOR MODEL INTEGRATION METHOD
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Interval methods for verified integration of initial value problems (IVPs) for ODEs have been used for more than 40 years. For many classes of IVPs, these methods have the ability to compute guaranteed error bounds for the flow of an ODE, where traditional methods provide only approximations to a solution. Overestimation, however, is a potential drawback of verified methods. For some problems, the computed error bounds become overly pessimistic, or integration even breaks down. The dependency problem and the wrapping effect are particular sources of overestimations in interval computations. Berz (see [1]) and his co-workers have developed Taylor model methods, which extend interval arithmetic with symbolic computations. The latter is an ef

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Determination of the Optimum Conditions for the Production of Gamma Alumina (ɤ-Al2O3) By the Precipitation Method of the Sodium Aluminate Solution
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Design of experiments (DOE) was made by Minitab software for the study of three factors used in the precipitation process of the Sodium Aluminate solution prepared from digestion of α-Al2O3  to determine the optimum conditions to a produce Boehmite which is used in production of ɤ-Al2O3 during drying and calcination processes, the factors are; the temperature of the sodium aluminate solution, concentration of HCl acid added for the precipitation and the pH of the solution at which the precipitation was ended. The design of the experiments leads to 18 experiments.

   The results show that the optimum conditions for the precipitation of the sodium aluminate solution which

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Box-Behnken Method Based ANN-GA to Prediction of wt.% of Doping Elements for Incoloy 800H Coated by Aluminizing-Chromizing
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In this work , an effective procedure of Box-Behnken based-ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) has been utilized for finding the optimum conditions of wt.% of doping elements (Ce,Y, and Ge) doped-aluminizing-chromizing of Incoloy 800H . ANN and Box-Behnken design method have been implanted for minimizing hot corrosion rate kp (10-12g2.cm-4.s-1) in Incoloy 800H at 900oC . ANN was used for estimating the predicted values of hot corrosion rate kp (10-12g2.cm-4.s-1) . The optimal wt.% of doping elements combination to obtain minimum hot corrosion rate was calculated using genetic alg

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 27 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Finite strain of the Tertiary rocks and their relation to tectonic deformation at Al-Tib Anticline in Missan governorate, Southeastern part of Iraq
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