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Publication Date
Sat Sep 26 2026
Journal Name
International Journal Of Low-carbon Technologies
Volume
21
DOI
10.1093/ijlct/ctag124
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Spatiotemporal patterns of bifacial and monofacial photovoltaic energy potential in an arid climate zone
Marrwa S Ghanim
Basim A Hussain
Alaa M Hammadi
Bassim Mohammed Hashim
Jasim M Mahdi
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Abstract<p>Climate change significantly affects photovoltaic (PV) energy potential in arid regions. This study quantifies climate change impacts on both monofacial and bifacial PV energy potential across Iraq using Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios spanning 2020–2100. Specific mathematical frameworks accounting for thermal and irradiance characteristics were applied across 18 representative regions covering Iraq’s diverse climatic zones, with bifacial systems modeled using dual-surface irradiance capture incorporating ground reflection and thermal dynamics. Results reveal distinct northwest–southeast gradient patterns in bifacial PV potential ranging from 0.267 to 0.302, with Western Anbar demonstrating exceptional climate resilience maintaining peak performance (0.291–0.302) under moderate scenarios, while northern provinces experience 2.5%–4% reductions under high-emission pathways. Under RCP8.5, 45% of Iraq’s territory falls below optimal deployment thresholds by century’s end. Bifacial systems consistently outperform monofacial technology by 19%–22% across all regions and scenarios, with enhanced relative advantages under extreme climate conditions. This represents the first comprehensive bifacial PV climate assessment for Iraq, providing critical evidence for renewable energy planning in climate-sensitive arid regions and supporting technology selection strategies for resilient solar infrastructure development.</p>
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