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A modified ARIMA model for forecasting chemical sales in the USA
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Abstract<p>model is derived, and the methodology is given in detail. The model is constructed depending on some measurement criteria, Akaike and Bayesian information criterion. For the new time series model, a new algorithm has been generated. The forecasting process, one and two steps ahead, is discussed in detail. Some exploratory data analysis is given in the beginning. The best model is selected based on some criteria; it is compared with some naïve models. The modified model is applied to a monthly chemical sales dataset (January 1992 to Dec 2019), where the dataset in this work has been downloaded from the United States of America census (www.census.gov). Ultimately, the forecasted sales for the next three years for chemical sales in the USA is provided.</p>
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlat

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimation of the Standard Atmospheric Earth Model Parameters at 86 km Altitude
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     Utilizing the Turbo C programming language, the atmospheric earth model is created from sea level to 86 km. This model has been used to determine atmospheric Earth parameters in this study. Analytical derivations of these parameters are made using the balancing forces theory and the hydrostatic equation. The effects of altitude on density, pressure, temperature, gravitational acceleration, sound speed, scale height, and molecular weight are examined. The mass of the atmosphere is equal to about 50% between sea level and 5.5 km. g is equal to 9.65 m/s2 at 50 km altitude, which is 9% lower than 9.8 m/s2 at sea level. However, at 86 km altitude, g is close to 9.51 m/s2, which is close to 15% smaller than 9.8 m/s2.  These resu

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 23 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
The dynamic of an eco-epidemiological model involving fear and hunting cooperation
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In the present paper, an eco-epidemiological model consisting of diseased prey consumed by a predator with fear cost, and hunting cooperation property is formulated and studied. It is assumed that the predator doesn’t distinguish between the healthy prey and sick prey and hence it consumed both. The solution’s properties such as existence, uniqueness, positivity, and bounded are discussed. The existence and stability conditions of all possible equilibrium points are studied. The persistence requirements of the proposed system are established. The bifurcation analysis near the non-hyperbolic equilibrium points is investigated. Numerically, some simulations are carried out to validate the main findings and obtain the critical values of th

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Mastering The Minds Of Machines
The Impact of Transfer Learning and Pre-trained Models on Model Performance
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Dynamics of Sokol-Howell Prey-Predator Model Involving Strong Allee Effect
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In this paper,  a Sokol-Howell prey-predator model involving strong Allee effect is proposed and analyzed. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness are studied. All the five possible equilibria have been are obtained and their local stability conditions are established. Using Sotomayor's theorem, the conditions of local saddle-node and transcritical and pitchfork bifurcation are derived and drawn. Numerical simulations are performed to clarify the analytical results

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 19 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Enhanced Multistage RSA Encryption Model
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 09 2015
Journal Name
Monthly Notices Of The Royal Astronomical Society
A reliable iterative method for solving Volterra integro-differential equations and some applications for the Lane–Emden equations of the first kind
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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Cancer Research Updates
Hematological Parameters in Liver Metastasis: A Comprehensive Clinical Evaluation for Early Detection in Iraqi Patients
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Background: Liver metastasis significantly complicates cancer prognosis, yet easily accessible markers for its early detection and monitoring remain crucial. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate key hematological parameters as potential indicators for liver metastasis in Iraqi patients. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study comparing hematological profiles between 90 patients (presumably with liver metastasis) and 30 healthy controls. White Blood Cell (WBC) count, Lymphocyte percentage, Neutrophil percentage, and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) were analyzed. Given non-normal data distributions (confirmed by the Shapiro-Wilk test), group comparisons were performed using the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 28 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of College Of Physical Education
Design and standardization of a progressively difficult educational test for football passing skills for first-year students in the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences
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Standards play a vital role in documenting the values ​​of new test results in the form of tables. They are one of the basic requirements that the standardization process aims for as a complement to standardizing test procedures, and contribute to knowing the current reality of the student. The degree of readiness and level as a result of practicing different exercises for sports activities, in addition to the possibility of adopting it for comparison with his group or similar groups, classification, prediction and selection. Developing the skill of handling the football in the educational field is an important matter for achieving distinguished performance among students. This skill requires a level of accuracy, speed and control, and

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Application of the excess cash margin model (ECM) to detect the Earning Management in the banking sector: Comparative study between commercial and Islamic banks
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The research draws its importance from identifying the methods of profit management in misleading the financial statements, which in turn is reflected in the decisions of the authorities that relied on these reports, and then the models that help in detecting those methods used by the auditors. Risks. The index (margin of excess cash) was used to detect profit management practices on a group of banks listed in the Iraqi market for securities and the number of (23) banks, including (12) commercial bank and (11) Islamic bank and the results were compared to commercial banks with Islamic banks.((The research started from the hypothesis that the use of the (excess cash margin) model in the banking sector reveals the management

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