Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

In this research, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) technique was applied in an attempt to predict the water levels and some of the water quality parameters at Tigris River in Wasit Government for five different sites. These predictions are useful in the planning, management, evaluation of the water resources in the area. Spatial data along a river system or area at different locations in a catchment area usually have missing measurements, hence an accurate prediction. model to fill these missing values is essential.
The selected sites for water quality data prediction were Sewera, Numania , Kut u/s, Kut d/s, Garaf observation sites. In these five sites models were built for prediction of the water level and water quality parameters.

This research aims to explain the effect of the imported inflation (which moves through the raise of global prices to Iraqi economy) over local prices, besides, the recognition the most important channels of imported inflation moving, its causes, effects, ways and policies that reduce the negative effects. To achieve the research aim, the deductive approach was adopted through using descriptive method to describe and determine phenomenon. The most important conclusion is that the research found out that there are two channels to transmission imported inflation in world. The first channel is the direct channel (prices) and the second channel is the indirect (income). The most important recommendation is to create sovereign fund (O

Soil water use and water storage vary by vegetative management practices, and these practices affect land productivity and hydrologic processes. This study investigated the effects of agroforestry buffers (AB), grass buffers (GB), and biofuel crops (BC), relative to row crops (RC) on soil water use for a claypan soil in northern Missouri, USA. The experiment located at the Greenley Memorial Research Center included RC, AB, GB, and BC established in 1991, 1997, 1997, and 2012, respectively. Soil water reflectometer sensors installed at 5‐, 10‐, 20‐, and 40‐cm depths monitored soil water from April to November in 2017 and 2018. Results showed significant differences in weekly volumetric water content (VWC) among treatments for all fou

The existing investigation explains the consequence of irradiation of violet laser on the structure properties of MawsoniteCu₆Fe₂SnS₈ [CFTS] thin films. The film was equipped by the utilization of semi-computerized spray pyrolysis technique (SCSPT), it is the first time that this technique is used in the preparation and irradiation using a laser. when the received films were processed by continuous red laser (700 nm) with power (>1000mW) for different laser irradiation time using different number of times a laser scan (0, 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18 times) with total irradiation time (0,30,45,60,75,90 min) respectively at room temperature.. The XRD diffraction gave polycrysta

The current study investigated the stability and the extraction efficiency of emulsion liquid membrane (ELM) for Abamectin pesticide removal from aqueous solution. The stability was investigated in terms of droplet emulsion size distribution and emulsion breakage percent. The proposed ELM included a mixture of corn oil and kerosene (1:1) as a diluent, Span 80 (sorbitan monooleate) as a surfactant and hydrochloric acid (HCl) as a stripping agent without utilizing a carrier agent. Parameters such as homogenizer speed, surfactant concentration, emulsification time and internal to organic volume ratio (I/O) were evaluated. Results show that the lower droplet size of 0.9 µm and higher stable emulsion in terms of breakage percent of 1.12 % were

        In this paper, double Sumudu and double Elzaki transforms methods are used to compute the numerical solutions for some types of fractional order partial differential equations with constant coefficients and explaining the efficiently of the method by illustrating some numerical examples that are computed by using  Mathcad 15.and graphic in Matlab R2015a.