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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach

The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of insider trading in accounting information on the investors decisions: An Applied Study In a sample of corporation listed in Iraq Securities Exchange

This research aims to discuss an important issue because of its role in increasing the efficiency of financial markets and boost investor confidence by a insider trading, which arises as a result of leaking secret information to some investors and reliable in the process of trading shares in the Iraq Stock Exchange And thus obtain abnormal profits at the expense of other investors. Research was based on the assumption that " Where shortcomings in local regulations relating to disclosure and insider trading in accounting information leads to the activate the phenomenon of insider trading in accounting information in the Iraq Stock Exchange and including a negative impact on investors' decisions ". and Because of the difficulty the discove

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational Red Tapes and their Reflections on Entrepreneurial Orientation: an Exploratory Study of a Sample of Employees in Some Organizations in the Province of Ninewah

Organizations adopt a number of procedures and instructions in their field of activities in order to aid their resources development   and energies to serve their entrepreneurial orientations. This calls for preparing a range of mechanisms to mitigate the strictness and complexity of procedures. The ambiguity and severe  complexity  of procedures means acknowledging the loss in energy and this in turn  impedes the hopes while in the same time weakens the  enthusiasm in these organizations and an impedes the possibility to achieve continues innovation, thereby losing opportunities to the level of surrender to the risks and  assuming them to be unconquered obstacles.

There

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 18 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Immunohistochemical expression of P53, as a marker of apoptosis in Hodgkin’s and Non Hodgkin’s lymphoma of the head and neck region

Background: Malignant lymphomas represent about 5% of all malignancy of the head and neck region which can involve lymph nodes as well as soft tissue and bone of the maxillofacial region. Apoptosis is considered a vital component of various processes including normal cell turnover, proper development and functioning of the immune system. Inappropriate apoptosis is a factor in many human conditions including neurodegenerative diseases, ischemic damage, autoimmune disorders and many types of cancer. Expression of p53 Proteins in Hodgkin׳s and Non Hodgkin׳s lymphomas suggested that it can help in monitoring of patients and the markers may aid in controlling the progression of lymphoma and detect the degree of aggressiveness of the diseas

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Effect of Heterogeneity on Capillary Pressure and Relative Permeability Curves in Carbonate Reservoirs. A Case Study for Mishrif Formation in West Qurna/1 Oilfield, Iraq

The special core analysis tests were accomplished on a set of core plugs for Mishrif Formation (mA, mB1, and mB2cde/mC units) in West Qurna/1 oilfield, southern Iraq. Oil relative permeability (Kro) data and the Corey-type fit of the data as functions of the brine saturation at the core outlet face for individual samples in the water-oil imbibition process to estimate relative permeability measurements by the centrifuge method were utilized. Identical correlations for oil and water relative permeabilities were extracted by steady-state and unsteady-state methods. For the mA samples, the gas-water capillary pressure curves were within a narrow range (almost identical) indicating that mA is a homogeneous unit. Kro curves for thr

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 24 2020
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
A STUDY OF PHYSICAL AND ANATOMICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HEAVY METAL ACCUMULATION OF JUNCUS RIGIDUS DESFONTAINES, 1798 (FAMILY, JUNCACEAE) IN BASRAH PROVINCE, SOUTHEREN OF IRAQ

This study was carried out to determine the heavy metal accumulation of Juncus rigidus Desfontaines, 1798 from three different regions of the Basrah Province in Southern of Iraq. Specifically, the concentrations of lead, nickel, and cadmium were determined in the roots, culms and leaves of the plant. The results indicated that the highest accumulation of the heavy metal was recorded in lead (Pb) 12.50± 3.58 mg kg-1and then in nickel (< 0.30). The lowest value was recorded for cadmium (< 0.05). As well, lead concentrations in J. rigidus varied in different locations and parts of the plant from undetectable in control to 12.66, 19.33, and 9.80 mg kg-1 in leaves, culm, and roots respective

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Financial contribution of taxes on Foreign oil companies in support of the state budget: The case of a foreign oil company in the Iraq Study

Imposed on foreign oil companies from important sources in the financing of the general budget in most countries of the world income tax is considered as well as be used to achieve political, economic and social goals, and has developed the concept of the tax until it became play an important role in influencing the economic conditions of a country, and the aim of this research is to statement imposed on foreign oil companies operating in Iraq in the financing of the state budget income tax contribution, as well as clarify the contracts type contracts with these companies, which is in favor of Iraq, together with the Income Tax Law No. (19) for the year / 2010, and instructed No. (5) for the year / 2011, which organized the tax process s

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of social audit in social performance an applied study of the views of a sample of managers and staff of Algerian business organizations

            This research aims at clarifying the concept of social auditing, which is one of the most important reasons for its emergence is social responsibility accounting and its role in measuring the social performance of enterprises. The study also aimed to know how social auditing has an impact and its role in improving the social performance of business organizations, and the research refers to testing the hypotheses of an impact of social auditing on social performance through a commitment to social responsibility. The research sample consisted of 200 individuals from 20 Algerian business organizations and represented individuals who were researched in managers and em

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The use of IT infrastructure and its impact on the performance of human resources in public universities: A field study at the University of Diyala

This study aims to identify the impact of using the infrastructure of the Information Technology (IT) on the performance of human resources in the public universities. This process is done by doing research in the size, quality, and efficiency of the performance, also speed of achievement and simplification of procedures. Diyala University was chosen for the diagnosis through the opinions and attitudes of its employees.  Consequently, suggestions that contribute to improve the performance of the employees and thus its overall performance are obtained. Another objective of this study is identifying the human resources which are currently used in academic institutions and educational services systems because the significant role of th

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The use of Auditors the Islamic Financial Engineering tool for Assessing Funding Risk Management in Islamic Banks: Applied research on a sample of Islamic banks

Experience the Islamic financial industry faces many challenges, most notably the lack of proper risk management tools that meet the requirements of legality and economic efficiency advantage from another side, so it requires the search for innovative ways to manage the risk of Islamic banking, Islamic finance industry is manufacture up-to-date, if compared with the financial industry (traditional), which increases the problematic of risk management in the Islamic financial industry nature of treatment which should be compatible with Islamic law, as well as economic efficiency, thereby Progress came the importance of research to highlight the entrance to Islamic financial engineering and the goals sought to be achieved through the use of

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Management by Walking Around on the Strategic Renewal of Business Organizations (Field Research in a Sample of Excellent grade hotels - in Baghdad)

This work aims to show the nature of the relationship between management by walking around  (the independent variable) and strategic renewal (the dependent variable), as well as it shows the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. Questionnaire items were considered the main tool for data collection by three basic aspects. The first involved the personal data of the respondents, while the second included items related to management by walking in five dimensions, and the third is strategic renewal items by addressing four dimensions. The tourism sector, while the community has six Excellent grade hotels was taken into account in this wor

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