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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Differential Item Functioning at the scal of mental health
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At the last years, the interesting of measurement spicilists was increased to study differential item functioning (DIF) wich is reflect the difference of propability true response for test item from subgroups which have equal level of ability . The aims of this research are, inform the DIFat Namers’scale(2009) for mental health to prepare students and detect items that have DIF. Sample research contants (540) students, we use Mantel- Haenzel chi-square to detect DIF. The results are point to there are (26) items have DIF according to gender which are delated form the scale after that.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Peace Indicating Words in Pre- Islamic Poetry
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In pre- Islamic poetry, there are a lot of words that indicate
peacefulness of one sort of another, in addition to the inspirations of semantic
modeling in which the poet sets himself in various horizons.
Among these words: brother, comrade, friend, companion, lover,
people, prince, home, land, country, blessing, honesty, contract, company,
justice, thankfulness, forgiveness, pardoning, guest, goodness, faithfulness,
silence, death, peace,….
In addition, there are their derivatives from various aspects that indicate
peacefulness either directly or indirectly.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Multi-variables Multi -sites Model for Forecasting Hydrological Data Series
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A multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates i

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Publication Date
Mon May 08 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
A New Method For Preparation of Microencapsulated Phase Change Materials (PCMs) For Low Coast Energy in Cooling of Building
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Microencapsulated of paraffin wax which acts as core material of phase change
material covered by polymer was prepared by using rabid (physical-chemical) with lower
energy (green) method. Prepolymer of condensed Melamine-Formaldehyde resin, was
solidified by heat effect gradually and surrounds the Paraffin wax as microcapsules. The
diameter of the prepared capsules was about (170-220) micron which has a proportion with
the prepolymer temperature, otherwise the thermal analysis appears as a best value of
enthalpy (ΔH) which was (12 J/gm) when the prepolymer temperature was (60˚C)

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Energy Production And Management
Reducing Energy Consumption in Iraqi Campuses with Passive Building Strategies: A Case Study at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering
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University campuses in Iraq are substantial energy consumers, with consumption increasing significantly during periods of high temperatures, underscoring the necessity to enhance their energy performance. Energy simulation tools offer valuable insights into evaluating and improving the energy efficiency of buildings. This study focuses on simulating passive architectural design for three selected buildings at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering (AKCOE) to examine the effectiveness of their cooling systems. DesignBuilder software was employed, and climatic data for a year in Baghdad was collected to assess the influence of passive architectural strategies on the thermal performance of the targeted buildings. The simulations revealed that the

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Advanced Geostatistical Techniques for Building 3D Geological Modeling: A Case Study from Cretaceous Reservoir in Bai Hassan Oil Field
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A 3D Geological model was generated using an advanced geostatistical method for the Cretaceous reservoir in the Bai Hassan oil field. In this study, a 3D geological model was built based on data from four wells for the petrophysical property distribution of permeability, porosity, water saturation, and NTG by using Petrel 2021 software. The geological model was divided into a structural model and a property model. The geological structures of the cretaceous reservoir in the Bai Hassan oil field represent elongated anticline folds with two faults, which had been clarified in the 3D Structural model. Thirteen formations represent the Cretaceous reservoir which includes (Shiranish, Mashurah, U.kometan, Kometan Shale, L. Kometan, Gulnen

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Differential Equations And Dynamical Systems
Stability and Bifurcation in a Prey–Predator–Scavenger System with Michaelis–Menten Type of Harvesting Function
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analyzing of the Relationship between the Financial Development, Economic growth, and Poverty in Iraq with the Autoregressive Distributed lag Model framework for the period (1980-2010)
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The developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison of the Semiparametric Estimators model smoothing methods different using
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In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Fitting Scoring Rubrics for Electronic Portfolio to Partial Credit Model According to the Number of Assumed Dimensions
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Abstract

 

The current research aims to reveal the extent to which all scoring rubrics data for the electronic work file conform to the partial estimation model according to the number of assumed dimensions. The study sample consisted of (356) female students. The study concluded that the list with the one-dimensional assumption is more appropriate than the multi-dimensional assumption, The current research recommends preparing unified correction rules for the different methods of performance evaluation in the basic courses. It also suggests the importance of conducting studies aimed at examining the appropriateness of different evaluation methods for models of response theory to the

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